Calibrating hydrological models without stream flow observations is still difficult, and the simultaneous, combined use of additional data, such as remotely sensed products, for calibration has not been exhaustively tested thus far. It is hypothesized that the combined use of products can improve model performances, internal model dynamics and the representation of hydrological signatures, in comparison with traditional calibration on stream flow. ... Read more

The moisture storage available to vegetation is a key parameter in the hydrological functioning of ecosystems. This parameter, the root zone storage capacity, determines the partitioning between runoff and transpiration, but is impossible to observe at the catchment scale. In this research, data from the experimental forests of HJ Andrews (Oregon, USA) and Hubbard Brook (New Hampshire, USA) was used to test the hypotheses that: (1) the root zone storage capacity significantly changes after deforestation, (2) changes in the root zone storage capacity can to a large extent explain post-treatment changes to the hydrological regimes and that (3) a time-dynamic formulation of the root zone storage can improve the performance of a hydrological model. At first, root zone storage capacities were estimated based on a simple, water-balance based method. Briefly, the maximum difference between cumulative rainfall and estimated transpiration was determined, which could be considered a proxy for root zone storage capacity. These values were compared with root zone storage capacities obtained from four conceptual models (HYPE, HYMOD, FLEX, TUW), calibrated for consecutive 2-year windows. Both methods showed a sharp decline in root zone storage capacity after deforestation, which was followed by a gradual recovery signal. It was found in a trend analysis that these recovery periods took between 5 and 13 years for the different catchments. Eventually, one of the models was adjusted to allow for a time-dynamic formulation of root zone storage capacity. This adjusted model showed improvements in model performance as evaluated by 28 hydrological signatures, such as rising limb density or peak flows. Thus, this research clearly shows the time-dynamic character of a crucial parameter, which is often considered to remain constant in time. Root zone storage capacities are strongly affected by deforestation, leading to changes in hydrological regimes, and time-dynamic formulations of root zone storage are therefore necessary in systems under change. ... Read more

Hydrological models are typically calibrated on available streamflow data or, more rarely on other hydrologic variables (i.e. soil moisture, groundwater dynamics, etc.). Whilst the literature is increasingly extensive on the value of different hydrologic variables in constraining model predictions, less attention has been given on how to define plausible parameter prior distributions or how much such priors impact the range of model behaviour before further conditioning. This can be relevant to the uncertainty bounds of any model prediction or in regard to the amount of sensitivity of the model parameters to the chosen model outputs. In this study, we combine four different conceptual hydrological models (HYPE, HYMOD, TUW, FLEX) with Global Sensitivity Analysis techniques to explore what are the most influential parameters and how the parameter priors impact model predictions. Our analysis focuses on 27 catchments across Europe, capturing a wide range of climates, vegetation and landscapes typologies in order to explore the effects of these physical and climatic properties on parameter prior distributions. Our findings provide new insights in the value of different sources of information for constraining hydrological model inputs, and for predicting water resource conditions in catchments worldwide. ... Read more

The calibration of a hydrological model still depends on the availability of streamflow data, even though more additional sources of information (i.e. remote sensed data products) have become more widely available. In this research, the model parameters of four different conceptual hydrological models (HYPE, HYMOD, TUW, FLEX) were constrained with remotely sensed products. The models were applied over 27 catchments across Europe to cover a wide range of climates, vegetation and landscapes. The fluxes and states of the models were correlated with the relevant products (e.g. MOD10A snow with modelled snow states), after which new a-posteriori parameter distributions were determined based on a weighting procedure using conditional probabilities. Briefly, each parameter was weighted with the coefficient of determination of the relevant regression between modelled states/fluxes and products. In this way, final feasible parameter sets were derived without the use of discharge time series. Initial results show that improvements in model performance, with regard to streamflow simulations, are obtained when the models are constrained with a set of remotely sensed products simultaneously. In addition, we present a more extensive analysis to assess a model’s ability to reproduce a set of hydrological signatures, such as rising limb density or peak distribution. Eventually, this research will enhance our understanding and recommendations in the use of remotely sensed products for constraining conceptual hydrological modelling and improving predictive capability, especially for data sparse regions. ... Read more

The core component of many hydrological systems, the moisture storage capacity available to vegetation, is impossible to observe directly at the catchment scale and is typically treated as a calibration parameter or obtained from a priori available soil characteristics combined with estimates of rooting depth. Often this parameter is considered to remain constant in time. Using long-term data (30-40 years) from three experimental catchments that underwent significant land cover change, we tested the hypotheses that: (1) the root-zone storage capacity significantly changes after deforestation, (2) changes in the root-zone storage capacity can to a large extent explain post-treatment changes to the hydrological regimes and that (3) a time-dynamic formulation of the root-zone storage can improve the performance of a hydrological model. A recently introduced method to estimate catchment-scale root-zone storage capacities based on climate data (i.e. observed rainfall and an estimate of transpiration) was used to reproduce the temporal evolution of root-zone storage capacity under change. Briefly, the maximum deficit that arises from the difference between cumulative daily precipitation and transpiration can be considered as a proxy for root-zone storage capacity. This value was compared to the value obtained from four different conceptual hydrological models that were calibrated for consecutive 2-year windows. It was found that water-balance-derived root-zone storage capacities were similar to the values obtained from calibration of the hydrological models. A sharp decline in root-zone storage capacity was observed after deforestation, followed by a gradual recovery, for two of the three catchments. Trend analysis suggested hydrological recovery periods between 5 and 13 years after deforestation. In a proof-of-concept analysis, one of the hydrological models was adapted to allow dynamically changing root-zone storage capacities, following the observed changes due to deforestation. Although the overall performance of the modified model did not considerably change, in 51% of all the evaluated hydrological signatures, considering all three catchments, improvements were observed when adding a time-variant representation of the root-zone storage to the model. In summary, it is shown that root-zone moisture storage capacities can be highly affected by deforestation and climatic influences and that a simple method exclusively based on climate data can not only provide robust, catchment-scale estimates of this critical parameter, but also reflect its timedynamic behaviour after deforestation. ... Read more