Identifying flood-inducing processes remains a challenge in catchment hydrology due to the complex runoff dynamics, particularly in semi-arid regions where surface and subsurface mechanisms alternatively drive streamflow across seasons. Tracer data can help identify hydrograph sources, but they are often unavailable or lack sufficient temporal resolution. To aid process identification at the event-scale, we developed an integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic framework and compared multiple model hypotheses informed by hydrological signatures. We systematically tested these hypotheses through falsification, meta-evaluation, spatial validation, and posterior diagnostics, using the semi-arid Salsola nested catchment in southern Italy as case study. While all model structures performed well on common calibration metrics, differences emerged in spatial transferability tests and alternative diagnostic assessments. Some models, despite strong performance, exhibited inconsistent representations of internal runoff mechanisms, indicating that they achieved good results for the wrong reasons. Furthermore, the choice of routing schemes significantly influenced high-peak estimations and overall model performance, particularly when Horton-type overland flow was considered. This underscores the need to treat routing methods as a key component in event-scale modeling. Our findings reveal that during consecutive storm events in the study catchment, surface processes dominate the initial stages, whereas subsurface processes become more influential in later events, providing valuable insights that may be applicable to similar semi-arid regions. Overall, we emphasize the importance of hypothesis testing in runoff process identification, which can compensate for the absence of hydrochemical data for hydrograph separation. Additionally, our results highlight the value of a landscape-based modeling approach for distinguishing alternative runoff generation processes.

To better understand the increasing human impact on the water cycle and the feedbacks between hydrology and society, the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) organized the scientific decade “Panta Rhei–Everything Flows: Change in hydrology and society” (2013–2022). A key finding is the need to use integrated approaches to assess the co-evolution of human–water systems in order to avoid unintended consequences of human interventions over long periods of time. Additionally, substantial progress has been made in leveraging new data sources on human behaviour, e.g. through text mining of social media posts. Much has been learned about detecting hydrological changes and attributing them to their drivers, e.g. quantifying climate effects on floods. To achieve further progress, we recommend broadening the understanding, the discipline and training activities, while at the same time pursuing synthesis by focusing on key themes, developing innovative approaches and finding sustainable solutions to the world’s water problems.

Adaptation of ecosystems’ root zones to climate change critically affects drought resilience and vegetation productivity. However, a global quantitative assessment of this mechanism is missing. In this study, we analyzed high-quality observation-based data to find that the global average root zone water storage capacity (S_R) increased by 11%, from 182 to 202 mm in 1982–2020. The total increase of S_R equals to 1652 billion m³ over the past four decades. S_R increased in 9 out of 12 land cover types, while three relatively dry types experienced decreasing trends, potentially suggesting the crossing of ecosystems’ tipping points. Our results underscore the importance of accounting for root zone dynamics under climate change to assess drought impacts.

The new scientific decade (2023-2032) of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) aims at searching for sustainable solutions to undesired water conditions–whether it be too little, too much or too polluted. Many of the current issues originate from global change, while solutions to problems must embrace local understanding and context. The decade will explore the current water crises by searching for actionable knowledge within three themes: global and local interactions, sustainable solutions and innovative cross-cutting methods. We capitalise on previous IAHS Scientific Decades shaping a trilogy; from Hydrological Predictions (PUB) to Change and Interdisciplinarity (Panta Rhei) to Solutions (HELPING). The vision is to solve fundamental water-related environmental and societal problems by engaging with other disciplines and local stakeholders. The decade endorses mutual learning and co-creation to progress towards UN sustainable development goals. Hence, HELPING is a vehicle for putting science in action, driven by scientists working on local hydrology in coordination with local, regional, and global processes.

Despite the importance of forests in the water and carbon cycles, accurately measuring their contribution remains challenging, especially at night. During clear-sky nights current models and theories fail, as non-turbulent flows and spatial heterogeneity become more important. One of the standing issues is the ‘decoupling’ of the air masses in and above the canopy, where little turbulent exchange takes place, thus preventing proper measurement of atmospheric fluxes. Temperature inversions, where lower air is colder and thus more dense, can be both the cause and result of this decoupling. With Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) it is now possible to detect these temperature inversions, and increase our understanding of the decoupling mechanism. With DTS we detected strong inversions within the canopy of a tall Douglas Fir stand. The inversions formed in on clear-sky nights with low turbulence, and preferentially formed in the open understory. A second inversion regularly occurred above the canopy. Oscillations in this upper inversion transferred vertically through the canopy and induced oscillations in the lower inversion. We hypothesize that the inversions could form due to a local suppression of turbulent motions along the height of the canopy. This was supported by a 1-D conceptual model, which showed that a local inversion layer would always form within the canopy if the bulk inversion (over the full canopy) was strong enough. Due to the near-continuous vertical motion and specific height the inversions occur at, a very high measurement density (better than ∼2 m) and measurement frequency (>0.1 Hz) are required to detect them. Consequently, it could be possible that the observed inversions are a regular feature in similarly structured forests, but are generally not directly observed. With DTS it is possible to detect and describe these types of features, which will aid in improving our understanding of atmospheric flows over complex terrain such as forests.

Increased attention directed at frozen soil hydrology has been prompted by climate change. In spite of an increasing number of field measurements and modeling studies, the impact of frozen soil on hydrological processes at the catchment scale is still unclear. However, frozen soil hydrology models have mostly been developed based on a bottom-up approach, i.e., by aggregating prior knowledge at the pixel scale, which is an approach notoriously suffering from equifinality and data scarcity. Therefore, in this study, we explore the impact of frozen soil at the catchment scale, following a top-down approach, implying the following sequence: expert-driven data analysis → qualitative perceptual model → quantitative conceptual model → testing of model realism. The complex mountainous Hulu catchment, northeast of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), was selected as the study site. First, we diagnosed the impact of frozen soil on catchment hydrology, based on multi-source field observations, model discrepancy, and our expert knowledge. The following two new typical hydrograph properties were identified: The low runoff in the early thawing season (LRET) and the discontinuous baseflow recession (DBR). Second, we developed a perceptual frozen soil hydrological model to explain the LRET and DBR properties. Third, based on the perceptual model and a landscape-based modeling framework (FLEX-Topo), a semi-distributed conceptual frozen soil hydrological model (FLEX-Topo-FS) was developed. The results demonstrate that the FLEX-Topo-FS model can represent the effect of soil freeze-Thaw processes on hydrologic connectivity and groundwater discharge and significantly improve hydrograph simulation, including the LRET and DBR events. Furthermore, its realism was confirmed by alternative multi-source and multi-scale observations, particularly the freezing and thawing front in the soil, the lower limit of permafrost, and the trends in groundwater level variation. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first report of LRET and DBR processes in a mountainous frozen soil catchment. The FLEX-Topo-FS model is a novel conceptual frozen soil hydrological model which represents these complex processes and has the potential for wider use in the vast QTP and other cold mountainous regions.

Satellite observations can provide valuable information for a better understanding of hydrological processes and thus serve as valuable tools for model structure development and improvement. While model calibration and evaluation have in recent years started to make increasing use of spatial, mostly remotely sensed information, model structural development largely remains to rely on discharge observations at basin outlets only. Due to the ill-posed inverse nature and the related equifinality issues in the modelling process, this frequently results in poor representations of the spatio-Temporal heterogeneity of system-internal processes, in particular for large river basins. The objective of this study is thus to explore the value of remotely sensed, gridded data to improve our understanding of the processes underlying this heterogeneity and, as a consequence, their quantitative representation in models through a stepwise adaptation of model structures and parameters. For this purpose, a distributed, process-based hydrological model was developed for the study region, the poorly gauged Luangwa River basin. As a first step, this benchmark model was calibrated to discharge data only and, in a post-calibration evaluation procedure, tested for its ability to simultaneously reproduce (1) the basin-Average temporal dynamics of remotely sensed evaporation and total water storage anomalies and (2) their temporally averaged spatial patterns. This allowed for the diagnosis of model structural deficiencies in reproducing these temporal dynamics and spatial patterns. Subsequently, the model structure was adapted in a stepwise procedure, testing five additional alternative process hypotheses that could potentially better describe the observed dynamics and pattern. These included, on the one hand, the addition and testing of alternative formulations of groundwater upwelling into wetlands as a function of the water storage and, on the other hand, alternative spatial discretizations of the groundwater reservoir. Similar to the benchmark, each alternative model hypothesis was, in a next step, calibrated to discharge only and tested against its ability to reproduce the observed spatio-Temporal pattern in evaporation and water storage anomalies. In a final step, all models were re-calibrated to discharge, evaporation and water storage anomalies simultaneously. The results indicated that (1) the benchmark model (Model A) could reproduce the time series of observed discharge, basin-Average evaporation and total water storage reasonably well. In contrast, it poorly represented time series of evaporation in wetland-dominated areas as well as the spatial pattern of evaporation and total water storage. (2) Stepwise adjustment of the model structure (Models B-F) suggested that Model F, allowing for upwelling groundwater from a distributed representation of the groundwater reservoir and (3) simultaneously calibrating the model with respect to multiple variables, i.e. discharge, evaporation and total water storage anomalies, provided the best representation of all these variables with respect to their temporal dynamics and spatial patterns, except for the basin-Average temporal dynamics in the total water storage anomalies. It was shown that satellite-based evaporation and total water storage anomaly data are not only valuable for multi-criteria calibration, but can also play an important role in improving our understanding of hydrological processes through the diagnosis of model deficiencies and stepwise model structural improvement.

Study region: The study area is the river basin upstream of the Kariba dam located in the Zambezi River at the border of Zambia and Zimbabwe. Study focus: During the dry season of 2019 in Sub-Saharan Africa, extremely low water levels occurred in the Zambezi. According to news media, locals perceived this drought as the worst in several decades. We analyzed the 2019 drought in the Zambezi River Basin upstream of the Kariba dam to determine whether it indeed was the longest, most intense, and severe drought, in terms of precipitation, total water storage and reservoir water level observations over recent decades. New hydrological insights for the region: Data analysis indicates that the 2019 drought indeed had the lowest basin-averaged annual rainfall, most severe local rainfall deficit in the north of the basin, and lowest reservoir level since 1995. However, the rainfall deficit was more severe in 2002, both basin-wide and locally in the south of the basin. The total storage deficit was more severe in 2004, both basin-wide and locally in the central part of the basin. However, as the available storage data did not cover the entire deficit for 2019, its final duration and severity remain unknown. Therefore, it depends on the drought characteristic, hydrological variable, and location within the basin, whether the 2019 drought was indeed the most extreme over recent decades.

In the Luangwa basin in Zambia, long-term total water storage variations were observed with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, but not reproduced by a standard conceptual hydrological model that encapsulates our current understanding of the dominant regional hydrological processes. The objective of this study was to identify potential processes underlying these low-frequency variations through combined data analysis and model hypothesis testing. First, we analyzed the effect of data uncertainty by contrasting observed storage variations with multi-annual estimates of precipitation and evaporation from multiple data sources. Second, we analyzed four different combinations of model forcing and evaluated their skill to reproduce the observed long-term storage variations. Third, we formulated alternative model hypotheses for groundwater export to potentially explain low-frequency storage variations. Overall, the results suggest that the initial model's inability to reproduce the observed low-frequency storage variations was partly due to the forcing data used and partly due to the missing representation of regional groundwater export. More specifically, the choice of data source affected the model's ability to reproduce annual maximum storage fluctuations, whereas the annual minima improved by adapting the model structure to allow for groundwater export from a deeper groundwater layer. This suggests that, in contrast to previous research, conceptual models can reproduce long-term storage fluctuations if a suitable model structure is used. Overall, the results highlight the value of alternative data sources and iterative testing of model structural hypotheses to improve runoff predictions in a poorly gauged basin leading to enhanced understanding of its hydrological processes.