Climate change and deforestation have increased the risk of drought-induced forest-to-savanna transitions across the tropics and subtropics. However, the present understanding of forest-savanna transitions is generally focused on the influence of rainfall and fire regime changes, but does not take into account the adaptability of vegetation to droughts by utilizing subsoil moisture in a quantifiable metric. Using rootzone storage capacity (S r), which is a novel metric to represent the vegetation's ability to utilize subsoil moisture storage and tree cover (TC), we analyze and quantify the occurrence of these forest-savanna transitions along transects in South America and Africa. We found forest-savanna transition thresholds to occur around a S r of 550-750 mm for South America and 400-600 mm for Africa in the range of 30%-40% TC. Analysis of empirical and statistical patterns allowed us to classify the ecosystem's adaptability to droughts into four classes of drought coping strategies: lowly water-stressed forest (shallow roots, high TC), moderately water-stressed forest (investing in S r, high TC), highly water-stressed forest (trade-off between investments in S r and TC) and savanna-grassland regime (competitive rooting strategy, low TC). The insights from this study are useful for improved understanding of tropical eco-hydrological adaptation, drought coping strategies, and forest ecosystem regime shifts under future climate change.@en

Forest and savanna ecosystems naturally exist as alternative stable states. The maximum capacity of these ecosystems to absorb perturbations without transitioning to the other alternative stable state is referred to as ‘resilience’. Previous studies have determined the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems to hydroclimatic changes predominantly based on space-for-time substitution. This substitution assumes that the contemporary spatial frequency distribution of ecosystems’ tree cover structure holds across time. However, this assumption is problematic since ecosystem adaptation over time is ignored. Here we empirically study tropical forests’ stability and hydroclimatic adaptation dynamics by examining remotely sensed tree cover change (ΔTC; aboveground ecosystem structural change) and root zone storage capacity (Sr; buffer capacity towards water-stress) over the last two decades. We find that ecosystems at high (>75%) and low (<10%) tree cover adapt by instigating considerable subsoil investment, and therefore experience limited ΔTC—signifying stability. In contrast, unstable ecosystems at intermediate (30%–60%) tree cover are unable to exploit the same level of adaptation as stable ecosystems, thus showing considerable ΔTC. Ignoring this adaptive mechanism can underestimate the resilience of the forest ecosystems, which we find is largely underestimated in the case of the Congo rainforests. The results from this study emphasise the importance of the ecosystem's temporal dynamics and adaptation in inferring and assessing the risk of forest-savannah transitions under rapid hydroclimatic change.@en

Green water — terrestrial precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture — is fundamental to Earth system dynamics and is now extensively perturbed by human pressures at continental to planetary scales. However, green water lacks explicit consideration in the existing planetary boundaries framework that demarcates a global safe operating space for humanity. In this Perspective, we propose a green water planetary boundary and estimate its current status. The green water planetary boundary can be represented by the percentage of ice-free land area on which root-zone soil moisture deviates from Holocene variability for any month of the year. Provisional estimates of departures from Holocene-like conditions, alongside evidence of widespread deterioration in Earth system functioning, indicate that the green water planetary boundary is already transgressed. Moving forward, research needs to address and account for the role of root-zone soil moisture for Earth system resilience in view of ecohydrological, hydroclimatic and sociohydrological interactions.@en

Root zone soil moisture is a key variable representing water cycle dynamics that strongly interact with ecohydrological, atmospheric, and biogeochemical processes. Recently, it was proposed as the control variable for the green water planetary boundary, suggesting that widespread and considerable deviations from baseline variability now predispose Earth system functions critical to an agriculture-based civilization to destabilization. However, the global extent and severity of root zone soil moisture changes under future scenarios remain to be scrutinized. Here, we analysed root zone soil moisture departures from the pre-industrial climate variability for a multi-model ensemble of 14 Earth system models (ESMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in four climate scenarios as defined by the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 between 2021 and 2100. The analyses were done for 43 ice-free climate reference regions used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We defined “permanent departures” when a region's soil moisture exits the regional variability envelope of the pre-industrial climate and does not fall back into the range covered by the baseline envelope until 2100. Permanent dry departures (i.e. lower soil moisture than pre-industrial variability) were found to be most pronounced in Central America, southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, and most of South America, whereas permanent wet departures are most pronounced in south-eastern South America, northern Africa, and southern Asia. In the Mediterranean region, dry permanent departure may have already happened according to some models. By 2100, there are dry permanent departures in the Mediterranean in 70 % of the ESMs in SSP1–2.6, the most mitigated situation, and more than 90 % in SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5, the medium–high and worst-case scenarios. North-eastern Africa is projected to experience wet permanent departures in 64 % of the ESMs under SSP1–2.6 and 93 % under SSP5–8.5. The percentage of ice-free land area with departures increases in all SSP scenarios as time goes by. Wet departures are more widespread than dry departures throughout the studied time frame, except in SSP1–2.6. In most regions, the severity of the departures increases with the severity of global warming. In 2050, permanent departures (ensemble median) occur in about 10 % of global ice-free land areas in SSP1–2.6 and in 25 % in SSP3–7.0. By the end of the 21st century, the occurrence of permanent departures in SSP1–2.6 increases to 34 % and, in SSP3–7.0, to 45 %. Our findings underscore the importance of mitigation to avoid further degrading the Earth system functions upheld by soil moisture.@en

Trees and forests multiply the oceanic supply of freshwater through moisture recycling, pointing to an urgent need to halt deforestation and offering a way to increase the water-related benefits of forest restoration.@en

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period (1861–2005), streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly timestep over 1661–1860). Comparing the two periods, we find an increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on these two important elements of the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Annually, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations now occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Our results signify a substantial shift from pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture reference conditions to persistently increasing change. This indicates a transgression of the new planetary boundary for freshwater change, which is defined and quantified using our approach, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.@en

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period (1861–2005), streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly timestep over 1661–1860). Comparing the two periods, we find an increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on these two important elements of the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Annually, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations now occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Our results signify a substantial shift from pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture reference conditions to persistently increasing change. This indicates a transgression of the new planetary boundary for freshwater change, which is defined and quantified using our approach, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.@en

Human actions compromise the many life-supporting functions provided by the freshwater cycle. Yet, scientific understanding of anthropogenic freshwater change and its long-term evolution is limited. Here, using a multi-model ensemble of global hydrological models, we estimate how, over a 145-year industrial period (1861–2005), streamflow and soil moisture have deviated from pre-industrial baseline conditions (defined by 5th–95th percentiles, at 0.5° grid level and monthly timestep over 1661–1860). Comparing the two periods, we find an increased frequency of local deviations on ~45% of land area, mainly in regions under heavy direct or indirect human pressures. To estimate humanity’s aggregate impact on these two important elements of the freshwater cycle, we present the evolution of deviation occurrence at regional to global scales. Annually, local streamflow and soil moisture deviations now occur on 18.2% and 15.8% of global land area, respectively, which is 8.0 and 4.7 percentage points beyond the ~3 percentage point wide pre-industrial variability envelope. Our results signify a substantial shift from pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture reference conditions to persistently increasing change. This indicates a transgression of the new planetary boundary for freshwater change, which is defined and quantified using our approach, calling for urgent actions to reduce human disturbance of the freshwater cycle.@en

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. Consequently, the effect of the root zone parameterization on the runoff prediction of global hydrological or land surface models (hereafter, GHMs) can be quite large. Many studies have found that climate is the most important factor in explaining rooting depths of natural vegetation, and thus outweighs the importance of soil and vegetation type. Most GHMs, however, use only soil maps and look-up tables for root zone properties to parameterize the root zone. This is problematic, as the observations of the root zone may indirectly have some climate properties, but is still likely to contribute to errors as the data is scarce, often incomplete (i.e. not the entire vertical root profile), at the wrong scale (i.e. individual plant vs. ecosystem value vs. grid cell value), and it is uncertain which part of root zone is hydrologically active. Recent studies developed different optimization methods to a priori determine the root zone storage or rooting depth at the global scale. These studies also suggested that their values could potentially be directly exported to other GHMs. In this study we test which root zone storage and rooting depth would be optimal for the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. We want to answer the following questions: • How much do the “best fit” root zone storages and rooting depths differ from each other with different model settings in PCR-GLOBWB? • Are calibrated root zone storage capacities and rooting depths for PCR-GLOBWB similar to root zone storage capacities and rooting depths obtained by other global studies? The optimal root zone parameters follow from taking the parameters that best reproduce the evaporative flux from a state-of-the-art ensemble of satellite remote sensing based gridded evaporation products. We find that the global spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage capacity are quite independent of other parameters in PCR-GLOBWB. These patterns are similar to the patterns found in recent global studies, but the absolute values are not. We believe that the future for GHMs lies in dynamically determining the root zone storage based on logical – climate based – optimization concepts that are tailor-made for each GHM independently. @en

The tropical forests of Amazon and Congo are critical elements of the Earth system in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate regulation. However, these rainforests are under simultaneous threat of deforestation and climate change, affecting both the internal forest resilience and the resilience of surrounding regions. The water cycle connects rainforests and downwind regions through moisture recycling: changes in forest cover affect evaporation, subsequent atmospheric moisture content, and presumably rainfall over downwind regions. Previous analysis indicates that moisture recycling appears to intensify in dry years, which in turn may weaken forest resilience through synergistic interactions with future deforestation and increased drought occurrence. On the other hand, while many studies have assumed moisture recycling to strongly link evaporation with downwind precipitation, others have suggested only a weak coupling between atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Amazon, particularly due to pre-existing highly convective conditions. Here, we use 36 years of reanalysis and synthesis precipitation data to analyse inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in both Amazon and Congo forest-rainfall coupling in terms of: (1) forest moisture contribution to precipitation, and (2) correlation between atmospheric moisture and precipitation. We find that reliance of precipitation on forest evaporation increases significantly in dry years in the Amazon and weakly in the Congo owing to moisture recycling anomalies. In both regions, the correlation between moisture content and precipitation becomes significant only during dry seasons. This suggests that deforestation effects on rainfall are likely to be stronger in dry years and dry seasons – i.e. when rainfall is most needed. Moisture tracking, using the tracking model WAM-2layers, further allows us to identify hotspot regions where forest-rainfall feedback intensifies during dry years, dry seasons, or droughts. These hotspot regions constitute potential risks for downwind regions if they are deforested, but also offer opportunities for co-production of the ecosystem service of vegetation-regulated rainfall through forest protection and management. Finally, we synthesise the implications of our findings for understanding forest resilience synergies in light of predicted future regional land-use and climate change. @en

The tropical forests of Amazon and Congo are critical elements of the Earth system in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate regulation. However, these rainforests are under simultaneous threat of deforestation and climate change, affecting both the internal forest resilience and the resilience of surrounding regions. The water cycle connects rainforests and downwind regions through moisture recycling: changes in forest cover affect evaporation, subsequent atmospheric moisture content, and presumably rainfall over downwind regions. Previous analysis indicates that moisture recycling appears to intensify in dry years, which in turn may weaken forest resilience through synergistic interactions with future deforestation and increased drought occurrence. On the other hand, while many studies have assumed moisture recycling to strongly link evaporation with downwind precipitation, others have suggested only a weak coupling between atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Amazon, particularly due to pre-existing highly convective conditions. Here, we use 36 years of reanalysis and synthesis precipitation data to analyse inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in both Amazon and Congo forest-rainfall coupling in terms of: (1) forest moisture contribution to precipitation, and (2) correlation between atmospheric moisture and precipitation. We find that reliance of precipitation on forest evaporation increases significantly in dry years in the Amazon and weakly in the Congo owing to moisture recycling anomalies. In both regions, the correlation between moisture content and precipitation becomes significant only during dry seasons. This suggests that deforestation effects on rainfall are likely to be stronger in dry years and dry seasons – i.e. when rainfall is most needed. Moisture tracking, using the tracking model WAM-2layers, further allows us to identify hotspot regions where forest-rainfall feedback intensifies during dry years, dry seasons, or droughts. These hotspot regions constitute potential risks for downwind regions if they are deforested, but also offer opportunities for co-production of the ecosystem service of vegetation-regulated rainfall through forest protection and management. Finally, we synthesise the implications of our findings for understanding forest resilience synergies in light of predicted future regional land-use and climate change. @en

The tropical forests of Amazon and Congo are critical elements of the Earth system in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate regulation. However, these rainforests are under simultaneous threat of deforestation and climate change, affecting both the internal forest resilience and the resilience of surrounding regions. The water cycle connects rainforests and downwind regions through moisture recycling: changes in forest cover affect evaporation, subsequent atmospheric moisture content, and presumably rainfall over downwind regions. Previous analysis indicates that moisture recycling appears to intensify in dry years, which in turn may weaken forest resilience through synergistic interactions with future deforestation and increased drought occurrence. On the other hand, while many studies have assumed moisture recycling to strongly link evaporation with downwind precipitation, others have suggested only a weak coupling between atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Amazon, particularly due to pre-existing highly convective conditions. Here, we use 36 years of reanalysis and synthesis precipitation data to analyse inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in both Amazon and Congo forest-rainfall coupling in terms of: (1) forest moisture contribution to precipitation, and (2) correlation between atmospheric moisture and precipitation. We find that reliance of precipitation on forest evaporation increases significantly in dry years in the Amazon and weakly in the Congo owing to moisture recycling anomalies. In both regions, the correlation between moisture content and precipitation becomes significant only during dry seasons. This suggests that deforestation effects on rainfall are likely to be stronger in dry years and dry seasons – i.e. when rainfall is most needed. Moisture tracking, using the tracking model WAM-2layers, further allows us to identify hotspot regions where forest-rainfall feedback intensifies during dry years, dry seasons, or droughts. These hotspot regions constitute potential risks for downwind regions if they are deforested, but also offer opportunities for co-production of the ecosystem service of vegetation-regulated rainfall through forest protection and management. Finally, we synthesise the implications of our findings for understanding forest resilience synergies in light of predicted future regional land-use and climate change. @en

The tropical forests of Amazon and Congo are critical elements of the Earth system in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate regulation. However, these rainforests are under simultaneous threat of deforestation and climate change, affecting both the internal forest resilience and the resilience of surrounding regions. The water cycle connects rainforests and downwind regions through moisture recycling: changes in forest cover affect evaporation, subsequent atmospheric moisture content, and presumably rainfall over downwind regions. Previous analysis indicates that moisture recycling appears to intensify in dry years, which in turn may weaken forest resilience through synergistic interactions with future deforestation and increased drought occurrence. On the other hand, while many studies have assumed moisture recycling to strongly link evaporation with downwind precipitation, others have suggested only a weak coupling between atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Amazon, particularly due to pre-existing highly convective conditions. Here, we use 36 years of reanalysis and synthesis precipitation data to analyse inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in both Amazon and Congo forest-rainfall coupling in terms of: (1) forest moisture contribution to precipitation, and (2) correlation between atmospheric moisture and precipitation. We find that reliance of precipitation on forest evaporation increases significantly in dry years in the Amazon and weakly in the Congo owing to moisture recycling anomalies. In both regions, the correlation between moisture content and precipitation becomes significant only during dry seasons. This suggests that deforestation effects on rainfall are likely to be stronger in dry years and dry seasons – i.e. when rainfall is most needed. Moisture tracking, using the tracking model WAM-2layers, further allows us to identify hotspot regions where forest-rainfall feedback intensifies during dry years, dry seasons, or droughts. These hotspot regions constitute potential risks for downwind regions if they are deforested, but also offer opportunities for co-production of the ecosystem service of vegetation-regulated rainfall through forest protection and management. Finally, we synthesise the implications of our findings for understanding forest resilience synergies in light of predicted future regional land-use and climate change. @en

The tropical forests of Amazon and Congo are critical elements of the Earth system in terms of biodiversity, carbon storage, and climate regulation. However, these rainforests are under simultaneous threat of deforestation and climate change, affecting both the internal forest resilience and the resilience of surrounding regions. The water cycle connects rainforests and downwind regions through moisture recycling: changes in forest cover affect evaporation, subsequent atmospheric moisture content, and presumably rainfall over downwind regions. Previous analysis indicates that moisture recycling appears to intensify in dry years, which in turn may weaken forest resilience through synergistic interactions with future deforestation and increased drought occurrence. On the other hand, while many studies have assumed moisture recycling to strongly link evaporation with downwind precipitation, others have suggested only a weak coupling between atmospheric moisture and precipitation in the Amazon, particularly due to pre-existing highly convective conditions. Here, we use 36 years of reanalysis and synthesis precipitation data to analyse inter-annual and inter-seasonal variations in both Amazon and Congo forest-rainfall coupling in terms of: (1) forest moisture contribution to precipitation, and (2) correlation between atmospheric moisture and precipitation. We find that reliance of precipitation on forest evaporation increases significantly in dry years in the Amazon and weakly in the Congo owing to moisture recycling anomalies. In both regions, the correlation between moisture content and precipitation becomes significant only during dry seasons. This suggests that deforestation effects on rainfall are likely to be stronger in dry years and dry seasons – i.e. when rainfall is most needed. Moisture tracking, using the tracking model WAM-2layers, further allows us to identify hotspot regions where forest-rainfall feedback intensifies during dry years, dry seasons, or droughts. These hotspot regions constitute potential risks for downwind regions if they are deforested, but also offer opportunities for co-production of the ecosystem service of vegetation-regulated rainfall through forest protection and management. Finally, we synthesise the implications of our findings for understanding forest resilience synergies in light of predicted future regional land-use and climate change. @en