Hazal Deniz Kaya
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6 records found
1
Navigating lock-ins for adaptation
A case study of grid capacity planning in the Dutch energy transition
Lock-ins are typically seen as barriers to sustainability transitions, particularly in the energy sector, where they can impede the radical changes needed for decarbonization. This study, however, argues that lock-ins can also act as catalysts for innovation within grid operators’ operational practices. Focusing on a Distribution System Operator (DSO) in Central-North Netherlands, the research explores how material, behavioural, and institutional lock-ins influence grid capacity planning for energy transition. Using a qualitative system dynamics methodology, the study reveals how these lock-ins contribute to grid congestion and delayed infrastructure development, but they also create pressure for adaptive change through three key mechanisms: (i) reframing questions, (ii) reorienting synergies between actors, and (iii) rediscovering solutions. These efforts have shifted the organization’s focus from reliability to flexibility, restructured internal operations to manage congestion, and enhanced collaboration with customers, regional authorities, and other energy system actors. However, challenges remain, including the need for a more innovation-driven organizational culture, stronger cooperation between regional and national grid operators, and greater public engagement in congestion management. By framing these findings within the tactical level of sustainability transition management—where strategy meets operations—this study demonstrates how electricity infrastructure can respond to lock-in conditions through adaptive strategies that turn systemic constraints into drivers for innovation, fostering more sustainable and resilient energy systems.
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Lock-ins are typically seen as barriers to sustainability transitions, particularly in the energy sector, where they can impede the radical changes needed for decarbonization. This study, however, argues that lock-ins can also act as catalysts for innovation within grid operators’ operational practices. Focusing on a Distribution System Operator (DSO) in Central-North Netherlands, the research explores how material, behavioural, and institutional lock-ins influence grid capacity planning for energy transition. Using a qualitative system dynamics methodology, the study reveals how these lock-ins contribute to grid congestion and delayed infrastructure development, but they also create pressure for adaptive change through three key mechanisms: (i) reframing questions, (ii) reorienting synergies between actors, and (iii) rediscovering solutions. These efforts have shifted the organization’s focus from reliability to flexibility, restructured internal operations to manage congestion, and enhanced collaboration with customers, regional authorities, and other energy system actors. However, challenges remain, including the need for a more innovation-driven organizational culture, stronger cooperation between regional and national grid operators, and greater public engagement in congestion management. By framing these findings within the tactical level of sustainability transition management—where strategy meets operations—this study demonstrates how electricity infrastructure can respond to lock-in conditions through adaptive strategies that turn systemic constraints into drivers for innovation, fostering more sustainable and resilient energy systems.
Cross-domain coordination and nexus thinking are increasingly recognized as vital for addressing complex sustainability challenges in infrastructure systems. Transitions in one infrastructure system often reshape others through socio-technical interactions, revealing critical interdependencies. However, research on these interdependencies during transitions frequently focuses on technological innovation within specific regimes (e.g., renewables in energy) and lacks insights into how strategic ambitions are translated into operational realities. In this study, two different infrastructure regimes, as electricity and drinking water, will be investigated which will explore how the energy and water transitions influence each other by focusing on two Dutch public utility providers to identify cross-learning opportunities. Using the theoretical lens of socio-technical interdependencies and multi-regime interactions, the research investigates the mechanisms behind implementing electrification for renewables and sustainable water management strategies, as well as the common and unique challenges these systems face in achieving their transition goals. Drawing on 23 semi-structured interviews and secondary data, the study employs qualitative system dynamics models to highlight key interdependencies and challenges. The research identifies four critical interaction moments: (1) competition for limited space and resources, (2) symbiosis in aging infrastructure renovation, (3) integration through shared funding and political support, and (4) spill-over effects from grid congestion and social prioritization. By uncovering lock-in mechanisms, interdependencies, and cross-sectoral interactions, the study provides insights into fostering collaboration within infrastructure systems undergoing transitions.
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Cross-domain coordination and nexus thinking are increasingly recognized as vital for addressing complex sustainability challenges in infrastructure systems. Transitions in one infrastructure system often reshape others through socio-technical interactions, revealing critical interdependencies. However, research on these interdependencies during transitions frequently focuses on technological innovation within specific regimes (e.g., renewables in energy) and lacks insights into how strategic ambitions are translated into operational realities. In this study, two different infrastructure regimes, as electricity and drinking water, will be investigated which will explore how the energy and water transitions influence each other by focusing on two Dutch public utility providers to identify cross-learning opportunities. Using the theoretical lens of socio-technical interdependencies and multi-regime interactions, the research investigates the mechanisms behind implementing electrification for renewables and sustainable water management strategies, as well as the common and unique challenges these systems face in achieving their transition goals. Drawing on 23 semi-structured interviews and secondary data, the study employs qualitative system dynamics models to highlight key interdependencies and challenges. The research identifies four critical interaction moments: (1) competition for limited space and resources, (2) symbiosis in aging infrastructure renovation, (3) integration through shared funding and political support, and (4) spill-over effects from grid congestion and social prioritization. By uncovering lock-in mechanisms, interdependencies, and cross-sectoral interactions, the study provides insights into fostering collaboration within infrastructure systems undergoing transitions.
Understanding the current status and historical path dependencies of infrastructures is crucial for planning future interventions in sustainability transitions. However, studies that examine the interplay between sustainability transitions and civil infrastructures remain limited. This paper presents a systematic review of 97 empirical studies that analyze how infrastructure systems and sustainability transitions influence one another. Infrastructure is found to play a dual role—as both a structuring force that enables or constrains transitions, and as a domain reshaped by transition processes. The review identifies key knowledge gaps and transdisciplinary opportunities. Firstly, capacity-related challenges—across technical, managerial, institutional, and policy dimensions—emerge as a shared concern and a promising entry point for deeper integration of infrastructure- and transition-oriented perspectives. Notably, the tactical level, where strategic ambitions are translated into infrastructure practices, remains significantly underexplored across the literature. Finally, most studies focus on individual systems, overlooking interdependencies across infrastructures and transitions, highlighting the need for a more networked, cross-sectoral approach.
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Understanding the current status and historical path dependencies of infrastructures is crucial for planning future interventions in sustainability transitions. However, studies that examine the interplay between sustainability transitions and civil infrastructures remain limited. This paper presents a systematic review of 97 empirical studies that analyze how infrastructure systems and sustainability transitions influence one another. Infrastructure is found to play a dual role—as both a structuring force that enables or constrains transitions, and as a domain reshaped by transition processes. The review identifies key knowledge gaps and transdisciplinary opportunities. Firstly, capacity-related challenges—across technical, managerial, institutional, and policy dimensions—emerge as a shared concern and a promising entry point for deeper integration of infrastructure- and transition-oriented perspectives. Notably, the tactical level, where strategic ambitions are translated into infrastructure practices, remains significantly underexplored across the literature. Finally, most studies focus on individual systems, overlooking interdependencies across infrastructures and transitions, highlighting the need for a more networked, cross-sectoral approach.
Although digitalization has become a prospect that is counted on for many problems in the construction industry, there have been limited attempts at exploring decision-making processes in construction firms concerning the integration of digital technologies and impacts beyond the projects. In this research, the system dynamics (SD) approach was proposed to investigate digitalization as a strategic decision considering the inherent relationships between project company and business levels. The SD model was conceptualized, formulated, and tested by conducting a demonstrative case study within a modular construction company. Conforming to the strategic priorities of the case company, business process engineering principles were adopted to model the existing practices and assess the impacts of implementing digital technologies such as building information modeling (BIM), enterprise resource planning (ERP), and radio frequency identification (RFID) at different maturity levels. The simulation tests revealed that the impacts of technologies are influenced by the internal dynamics of projects and company competencies as well as external uncertainties. The SD model has the potential to improve strategic decision-making by anticipating the causalities and feedback between the decisions and consequences of technology integration. The findings and model development steps proposed in this paper can be used by other companies that aim to make process improvements with digital technologies as well as researchers exploring the implications of digitalization in construction considering competencies and uncertainties.
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Although digitalization has become a prospect that is counted on for many problems in the construction industry, there have been limited attempts at exploring decision-making processes in construction firms concerning the integration of digital technologies and impacts beyond the projects. In this research, the system dynamics (SD) approach was proposed to investigate digitalization as a strategic decision considering the inherent relationships between project company and business levels. The SD model was conceptualized, formulated, and tested by conducting a demonstrative case study within a modular construction company. Conforming to the strategic priorities of the case company, business process engineering principles were adopted to model the existing practices and assess the impacts of implementing digital technologies such as building information modeling (BIM), enterprise resource planning (ERP), and radio frequency identification (RFID) at different maturity levels. The simulation tests revealed that the impacts of technologies are influenced by the internal dynamics of projects and company competencies as well as external uncertainties. The SD model has the potential to improve strategic decision-making by anticipating the causalities and feedback between the decisions and consequences of technology integration. The findings and model development steps proposed in this paper can be used by other companies that aim to make process improvements with digital technologies as well as researchers exploring the implications of digitalization in construction considering competencies and uncertainties.
Journal article
(2022)
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I. Dikmen, G. Atasoy, H. Erol, H.D. Kaya, M.T. Birgonul
Risk assessment in projects requires the integration of various information on project characteristics as well as external and internal sources of uncertainty and is based on assumptions about future and project vulnerability. Complexity is a major source of uncertainty that decreases the predictability of project outputs. In this research, the aim was to develop a decision-support tool that can estimate the level of risk and required contingency in a project by assessment of complexity factors as well as contextual information such as contract conditions and mitigation strategies. A process model and a tool were developed using the data of 11 mega construction projects. The tool was tested on a real project, and promising results were obtained about its usability. The tool has the potential to support decision-making during bidding in construction projects with its visualization and prediction features. On the other hand, as a limited number of cases and experts were involved in this study, findings on its performance cannot be generalized. The identified complexity and risk factors, proposed process model, and visual representations may help the development of similar decision-support tools according to different company needs.
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Risk assessment in projects requires the integration of various information on project characteristics as well as external and internal sources of uncertainty and is based on assumptions about future and project vulnerability. Complexity is a major source of uncertainty that decreases the predictability of project outputs. In this research, the aim was to develop a decision-support tool that can estimate the level of risk and required contingency in a project by assessment of complexity factors as well as contextual information such as contract conditions and mitigation strategies. A process model and a tool were developed using the data of 11 mega construction projects. The tool was tested on a real project, and promising results were obtained about its usability. The tool has the potential to support decision-making during bidding in construction projects with its visualization and prediction features. On the other hand, as a limited number of cases and experts were involved in this study, findings on its performance cannot be generalized. The identified complexity and risk factors, proposed process model, and visual representations may help the development of similar decision-support tools according to different company needs.
Conference paper
(2022)
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I. Cakir, H.D. Kaya, I. Dikmen, G. Atasoy, M.T. Birgonul
Complexity is the property of a project that makes it difficult to understand, foresee and control its behaviour due to interrelatedness between various project attributes such as tasks, parties, disciplines, and interfaces. Project complexity is an inherent part of mega construction projects due to their large scale, long period, the multiplicity of disciplines, the high number of stakeholders, multi-nationality, and high level of public attention, as well as political interest. This paper depicts findings of a research project that aims to identify characteristics of and factors that contribute to project complexity by referring to the experiences of professionals involved in mega construction projects. For this purpose, data has been collected by interviewing 18 participants from 11 mega construction projects. Communication complexity, which reflects the amount of distributed communication channels between various stakeholders, has been identified as one of the major drivers of project complexity in megaprojects. Based on literature and semi-structured interview findings, a causal structure to represent communication complexity comprising of three components, which are; project, stakeholders, and communication management, was developed. The causal map, which represents the opinions of a limited number of experts, cannot be generalised; however, it can provide useful insights about drivers of communication complexity that can be used to develop strategies to manage complexity.
...
Complexity is the property of a project that makes it difficult to understand, foresee and control its behaviour due to interrelatedness between various project attributes such as tasks, parties, disciplines, and interfaces. Project complexity is an inherent part of mega construction projects due to their large scale, long period, the multiplicity of disciplines, the high number of stakeholders, multi-nationality, and high level of public attention, as well as political interest. This paper depicts findings of a research project that aims to identify characteristics of and factors that contribute to project complexity by referring to the experiences of professionals involved in mega construction projects. For this purpose, data has been collected by interviewing 18 participants from 11 mega construction projects. Communication complexity, which reflects the amount of distributed communication channels between various stakeholders, has been identified as one of the major drivers of project complexity in megaprojects. Based on literature and semi-structured interview findings, a causal structure to represent communication complexity comprising of three components, which are; project, stakeholders, and communication management, was developed. The causal map, which represents the opinions of a limited number of experts, cannot be generalised; however, it can provide useful insights about drivers of communication complexity that can be used to develop strategies to manage complexity.