The complexity and multi-dimensionality of energy transitions are broadly recognised, and insights from transition research increasingly support policy decision making. Sustainability transition scholars have been developing mostly qualitative socio-technical transition (STT) frameworks, and modelling has been argued to be complementary to these frameworks, for example for policy testing. We systematically evaluate five system dynamics (SD) energy models on their representation of key STT characteristics. Our results demonstrate that (i) the evaluated models incorporate most of the core characteristics of STT, and (ii) the policies tested in the models address different levels and aspects of the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework. In light of the increasing emergence of energy (transition) models, we recommend to systematically map models and their tested policy interventions into the MLP framework or other sustainability transition frameworks, creating an overview of tested policies (a “policy navigator”). This navigator supports policy makers and modellers alike, facilitating them to find previously tested policy options and related models for particular policy objectives.

A prosumer community is a group of households that are organized together to consume energy from a common decentralized generation system such as solar photovoltaic (PV). The development of prosumer communities poses a threat to electric utilities, which currently apply a business model for centralized generation, sales and distribution of electricity. This study uses a System Dynamics simulation approach to analyze the various factors influencing the diffusion of “prosumer communities”, based on a case study in Switzerland, and provides insights into potential business opportunities for electric utilities in managing this transition challenge.

Participative modelling (PM) is a promising approach to mutual learning about causal mechanisms and dynamics in socio-technical transitions. However, case-specific PM initiatives often fail to generate insights that inform related cases. We address this methodical limitation in a case study on the Swiss energy transition. The central question is as follows: How can a PM workshop series be designed to create insights that go beyond the single socio-technical transition case? Based on theorizing literature, we develop a process framework for generic PM based on system dynamics modelling and socio-technical transition frameworks. The framework differentiates the steps in theorizing and explains how to integrate different levels of theorizing into the PM process. We illustrate how we applied the framework in our PM workshop series. Our experiences show that workshop participants employ various conceptual tools (e.g. socio-technical frameworks or causal loop diagrams) to classify and clarify their own experience in general terms.

Distributed generation is becoming increasingly important in energy systems, causing a transition towards decentralisation. These decentralisation dynamics are difficult to predict in their scope and timing and therefore present a major challenge for utility companies. This paper aims to make a contribution to the field of energy transitions with a model-based theory-building approach. A conceptual framework of the major (circular) causalities of regional energy systems is presented. It improves the knowledge on transition patterns of distributed generation concepts and the interplaying network effects. Network effects between technologies, the installed base and the investment decision criteria are important elements in the transition dynamics. A System Dynamics simulation model is built, capturing the consumption concepts related to distributed generation, as well as arising network effects, to analyse the likely transition patterns of regional energy systems. Our simulation results highlight the significance of network effects steering the investment decision for distributed generation concepts, pilot projects to accelerate the transition of regional energy systems and the general role of microgrids in the decentralisation dynamics.

Netznutzungsgebühren dienen der Deckung der Kosten für Aufbau und Erhalt des Stromnetzes. Mit zunehmender Zahl privater PV-Anlagen und Eigenverbrauchslösungen ist die Verteilung dieser Kosten auf die Endkunden nach dem heutigen Tarifmodell aber nicht mehr verursachergerecht. Dementsprechend wird in der Schweiz, wie auch in anderen Ländern, eine Änderung des Tarifmodells erwogen. Hierbei entsteht ein Zielkonflikt: Einerseits leistet das heutige Tarifmodell einen wesentlichen Beitrag zur Wirtschaftlichkeit privater PV-Anlagen mit Eigenverbrauch und damit zur Erreichung der Ausbauziele der Energiestrategie 2050. Andererseits ist eine solche Abweichung von verursachergerechten Netznutzungsgebühren problematisch, weil sie eine Quersubventionierung von privaten PV-Nutzern durch die anderen Stromkunden verursacht und Fehlanreize für Investitionen in Netzinfrastruktur und Speicher setzt. Die diesem White Paper zugrunde liegenden Studien und Daten zeigen, dass mit dem derzeitigen Tarifmodell zwar eine Quersubventionierung vorliegt, deren Umfang in den kommenden Jahren aber überschaubar bleiben dürfte. Dementsprechend liegt mittelfristig vor allem ein Konflikt zwischen dem Ziel des Ausbaus privater PV-Anlagen und dem Ziel des Aufbaus einer effizienten dezentralen Netz- und Speicher-Infrastruktur vor. Beide Aspekte sind wesentlich. Denn die Ausbauziele der Schweiz für erneuerbare Energien sind ambitioniert und nur mit privaten PV-Anlagen realisierbar. Und die Entwicklung der nächsten Jahre in den Bereichen Netze und Speicher kann zu einem mehr oder weniger dezentralen Energiesystem führen. Deshalb können Fehlanreize in diesem Zeitraum leicht zum Aufbau einer ineffizienten Infrastruktur führen. Für beide Aspekte liegt aber noch zu wenig belastbare Evidenz vor, um die Auswirkungen verschiedener Tarifmodelle sicher abschätzen zu können. Daher scheinen folgende Aspekte für die kommenden Jahre zentral: a) Die heutige Diskussion um die Quersubventionierung sollte vermehrt auf den Zielkonflikt zwischen Anreizen für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien und Anreizen für effiziente Infrastruktur fokussieren. b) Es sollten Handlungsspielräume für Alternativen zu den heutigen ausschliesslich am Strombezug orientierten Tarifen geschaffen werden, damit neue Ansätze für die Lösung des Zielkonflikts entstehen können. c) Auf regionaler oder kantonaler Ebene könnten neue Ansätze erarbeitet und erprobt werden, die für die Gesetz gebung die notwendige Evidenz zu Auswirkungen alternativer Tarifmodelle liefern.

Distributed generation is becoming increasingly important in energy systems, causing a transition of regional energy systems. These decentralisation dynamics are difficult to predict in their scope and timing and therefore become a major challenge for political decision makers, utility companies and technology developers. Network effects are crucial in these decentralisation dynamics, strongly influencing the dominance of the various concepts of distributed energy generation. Network effects emerge between technologies, the installed base of a concept and actor-specific decision criteria. A System Dynamics simulation model is built, capturing the consumer concepts related to distributed generation as well as arising network effects, to analyse likely transition dynamics in regional energy systems. The direct network effects of grid charge adjustment, learning theory and an effect due to density as well as indirect network effect between storage technologies and combined heat and power systems in microgrids are represented in the model. Preliminary simulation results on the transition of the distributed generation concepts are shown and will be analysed in further research on the specific impact of network effects on the transition patterns. This paper aims to make a contribution to the field of energy transitions by translating theories on network effects of the economic literature to the energy systems simulation and by discussing and simulating relevant network effects as relevant drivers of the dissemination of distributed energy generation concepts and the related consumer concepts.