Merla Kubli
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Retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries can be repurposed to stationary storage batteries. While this circularity solution has attracted attention from entrepreneurs, falling battery prices, along with the longer lifetime of new batteries, high consumer expectations and limited governmental support challenge the approach. This paper investigates whether the second-use EV battery industry is at risk of getting trapped in the ‘valley of death’ (VoD). We developed a system dynamics model and assessed the impact of 12 business strategies. Based on the simulations, some strategies yielded positive returns, while others resulted in a VoD scenario, risking business failure. Subsidising repurposed EV batteries emerged as the most effective strategy to boost commercialisation. Conversely, two plausible and well-intended strategies risk reinforcing VoD conditions: focusing exclusively on the premium end-of-life battery market and relying solely on cooperation with original equipment manufacturers.
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Retired electric vehicle (EV) batteries can be repurposed to stationary storage batteries. While this circularity solution has attracted attention from entrepreneurs, falling battery prices, along with the longer lifetime of new batteries, high consumer expectations and limited governmental support challenge the approach. This paper investigates whether the second-use EV battery industry is at risk of getting trapped in the ‘valley of death’ (VoD). We developed a system dynamics model and assessed the impact of 12 business strategies. Based on the simulations, some strategies yielded positive returns, while others resulted in a VoD scenario, risking business failure. Subsidising repurposed EV batteries emerged as the most effective strategy to boost commercialisation. Conversely, two plausible and well-intended strategies risk reinforcing VoD conditions: focusing exclusively on the premium end-of-life battery market and relying solely on cooperation with original equipment manufacturers.
University for the Future, the Future for Universities
Learning Communities that Prioritize Care
Journal article
(2025)
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Saskia D.M. van Schaik, Jan Bransen, Aleksi Neuvonen, Björn Müller, Laura Riuttanen, Merla Kubli, Robert John Millar, Antti Rajala, Ágnes Zsóka, Peter Ache
Both current and future global emergencies call for vast transformations of humanity. While this has been known for decades, the challenge of acting upon it remains. Even within academia, a growing body of articles has advocated for both higher education for sustainability as well as transdisciplinary research, yet most universities and academics struggle to change their ‘business as usual’. This article discusses how universities can and should support societal transformations through positioning care for all forms of life at their core as education and research institutes. Prioritizing care implies a different focus for universities, including a different concept of learning and development, namely one in which the world is continuously shaped and reshaped by all its inhabitants. Furthermore, this raises various ethical dilemmas, particularly when care for human life implies harm to non-human life. We review how the importance of reframing the knowledge-action gap by seeing learning as a process of action, which should happen in context and together, should be central in universities for the future. Last, we discuss two possible steps that can be taken today, namely (a) building co-creation labs and (b) integrating a sustainability mindset, content and actions in the curriculum of all disciplines to enable all disciplines to contribute to addressing planetary challenges. Some universities have well-integrated such transdisciplinary, transgressive and transformative practice within their research and education. However, in most universities, the usual disciplinary business is hard to transgress and these steps could form a start that supports building learning communities that prioritize care.
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Both current and future global emergencies call for vast transformations of humanity. While this has been known for decades, the challenge of acting upon it remains. Even within academia, a growing body of articles has advocated for both higher education for sustainability as well as transdisciplinary research, yet most universities and academics struggle to change their ‘business as usual’. This article discusses how universities can and should support societal transformations through positioning care for all forms of life at their core as education and research institutes. Prioritizing care implies a different focus for universities, including a different concept of learning and development, namely one in which the world is continuously shaped and reshaped by all its inhabitants. Furthermore, this raises various ethical dilemmas, particularly when care for human life implies harm to non-human life. We review how the importance of reframing the knowledge-action gap by seeing learning as a process of action, which should happen in context and together, should be central in universities for the future. Last, we discuss two possible steps that can be taken today, namely (a) building co-creation labs and (b) integrating a sustainability mindset, content and actions in the curriculum of all disciplines to enable all disciplines to contribute to addressing planetary challenges. Some universities have well-integrated such transdisciplinary, transgressive and transformative practice within their research and education. However, in most universities, the usual disciplinary business is hard to transgress and these steps could form a start that supports building learning communities that prioritize care.
Book
(2024)
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Willem L. Auping, Floortje d’Hont , M.D. Kubli, J Slinger, P. Steinmann, Floris van der Heijde, C. van Daalen, Erik Pruyt, W.A.H. Thissen
The Delft Method for System Dynamics (SD) is a proven method for learning basic SD. The method focuses on learning by doing: first you try to work through an exercise, and if you do not understand something, then you can look up the theory. The book contains exercises on topics such as causal loop diagrams, delays, and when SD is an appropriate methodology. It also contains modelling exercises that show students how to build low to medium complexity models, and how to use these models for policy analysis. The theory chapters cover all phases of the modelling cycle: problem articulation, conceptualisation, formulation, evaluation (including validation and scenario analysis), and policy analysis. This book is intended for students and teachers in large or small System Dynamics courses, and for motivated students that want to learn SD at their own pace.
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The Delft Method for System Dynamics (SD) is a proven method for learning basic SD. The method focuses on learning by doing: first you try to work through an exercise, and if you do not understand something, then you can look up the theory. The book contains exercises on topics such as causal loop diagrams, delays, and when SD is an appropriate methodology. It also contains modelling exercises that show students how to build low to medium complexity models, and how to use these models for policy analysis. The theory chapters cover all phases of the modelling cycle: problem articulation, conceptualisation, formulation, evaluation (including validation and scenario analysis), and policy analysis. This book is intended for students and teachers in large or small System Dynamics courses, and for motivated students that want to learn SD at their own pace.
Journal article
(2024)
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Sarah Hafner, Lawrence Gottschamer, M.D. Kubli, Roberto Pasqualino, Silvia Ulli-Beer
The complexity and multi-dimensionality of energy transitions are broadly recognised, and insights from transition research increasingly support policy decision making. Sustainability transition scholars have been developing mostly qualitative socio-technical transition (STT) frameworks, and modelling has been argued to be complementary to these frameworks, for example for policy testing. We systematically evaluate five system dynamics (SD) energy models on their representation of key STT characteristics. Our results demonstrate that (i) the evaluated models incorporate most of the core characteristics of STT, and (ii) the policies tested in the models address different levels and aspects of the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework. In light of the increasing emergence of energy (transition) models, we recommend to systematically map models and their tested policy interventions into the MLP framework or other sustainability transition frameworks, creating an overview of tested policies (a “policy navigator”). This navigator supports policy makers and modellers alike, facilitating them to find previously tested policy options and related models for particular policy objectives.
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The complexity and multi-dimensionality of energy transitions are broadly recognised, and insights from transition research increasingly support policy decision making. Sustainability transition scholars have been developing mostly qualitative socio-technical transition (STT) frameworks, and modelling has been argued to be complementary to these frameworks, for example for policy testing. We systematically evaluate five system dynamics (SD) energy models on their representation of key STT characteristics. Our results demonstrate that (i) the evaluated models incorporate most of the core characteristics of STT, and (ii) the policies tested in the models address different levels and aspects of the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework. In light of the increasing emergence of energy (transition) models, we recommend to systematically map models and their tested policy interventions into the MLP framework or other sustainability transition frameworks, creating an overview of tested policies (a “policy navigator”). This navigator supports policy makers and modellers alike, facilitating them to find previously tested policy options and related models for particular policy objectives.
A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to reach end-of-(first)-life during the mobility transition, leaving large volumes of scarce materials behind. At the same time, shortages are expected in the supply chain for battery materials, emphasising the urgency to develop a circular economy for EV batteries. In this study, we investigated the market formation of repurposing and recycling by simulating long-term market dynamics. We quantitatively assessed the reinforcing and counteracting impact of the newly introduced EU battery regulation (2023/1542). We built a system dynamics model to capture the decision factors for repurposing or recycling end-of-life EV batteries. Our findings reveal that the EU battery regulation is effective when it comes to building the required recycling capacities. Our simulations highlight that the current recycling capacities are insufficient to meet the growing demand, thereby highlighting the need for investors to expand the current facilities. On the other hand, the EU battery regulation, which promotes recycling with mandatory recycling shares, leads to a considerable dropping of shares in the emerging repurposing market. Our study concludes that, to achieve a circular economy for EV batteries, balanced support for recycling and repurposing is needed. We call for a complementary policy framework that ensures that repurposing is an integral part of the closed-loop system.
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A high number of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to reach end-of-(first)-life during the mobility transition, leaving large volumes of scarce materials behind. At the same time, shortages are expected in the supply chain for battery materials, emphasising the urgency to develop a circular economy for EV batteries. In this study, we investigated the market formation of repurposing and recycling by simulating long-term market dynamics. We quantitatively assessed the reinforcing and counteracting impact of the newly introduced EU battery regulation (2023/1542). We built a system dynamics model to capture the decision factors for repurposing or recycling end-of-life EV batteries. Our findings reveal that the EU battery regulation is effective when it comes to building the required recycling capacities. Our simulations highlight that the current recycling capacities are insufficient to meet the growing demand, thereby highlighting the need for investors to expand the current facilities. On the other hand, the EU battery regulation, which promotes recycling with mandatory recycling shares, leads to a considerable dropping of shares in the emerging repurposing market. Our study concludes that, to achieve a circular economy for EV batteries, balanced support for recycling and repurposing is needed. We call for a complementary policy framework that ensures that repurposing is an integral part of the closed-loop system.
Energy communities for companies
Executives’ preferences for local and renewable energy procurement
Journal article
(2023)
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Beatrice Petrovich, Merla Kubli
Energy communities are a cornerstone of the European energy transition. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) exhibit a particularly high potential for energy communities due to their energy demand and flexibility volume. However, in contrast to residential consumers, empirical evidence on SMEs' preferences for participating in renewable energy communities is scarce. This study investigates European SMEs' preferences for local and renewable energy procurement in four countries with a choice experiment. Our sample includes decisions by 823 executives for different energy procurement offers with an energy community approach. In the study, in 67% of the choices, SMEs prefer a renewable energy community offer to their current supply option even without a price premium. Cost is the most important factor in SMEs' energy supply decisions. SMEs have marked preferences for local providers, low administration efforts and high interest in demand-side management and peer-to-peer trading. In contrast, SMEs might reject energy procurement models when major time investments are required, or the provider is an international company. Offers that include local companies or electricity providers and provide smart energy management are most likely to win SMEs' consent. The study recommends orienting the business model design of energy communities towards the specific preferences of corporate consumers to leverage their potential. The results suggest that electricity providers are well-accepted players by SMEs as potential providers of energy community solutions. National implementations of the European policy directive are recommended to take into account the role electricity providers can play in the development and operation of energy communities.
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Energy communities are a cornerstone of the European energy transition. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) exhibit a particularly high potential for energy communities due to their energy demand and flexibility volume. However, in contrast to residential consumers, empirical evidence on SMEs' preferences for participating in renewable energy communities is scarce. This study investigates European SMEs' preferences for local and renewable energy procurement in four countries with a choice experiment. Our sample includes decisions by 823 executives for different energy procurement offers with an energy community approach. In the study, in 67% of the choices, SMEs prefer a renewable energy community offer to their current supply option even without a price premium. Cost is the most important factor in SMEs' energy supply decisions. SMEs have marked preferences for local providers, low administration efforts and high interest in demand-side management and peer-to-peer trading. In contrast, SMEs might reject energy procurement models when major time investments are required, or the provider is an international company. Offers that include local companies or electricity providers and provide smart energy management are most likely to win SMEs' consent. The study recommends orienting the business model design of energy communities towards the specific preferences of corporate consumers to leverage their potential. The results suggest that electricity providers are well-accepted players by SMEs as potential providers of energy community solutions. National implementations of the European policy directive are recommended to take into account the role electricity providers can play in the development and operation of energy communities.
A typology of business models for energy communities
Current and emerging design options
Journal article
(2023)
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Merla Kubli, Sanket Puranik
In the European energy transition, energy communities have gained an increasing amount of attention. To support widespread diffusion, academic and practice-oriented studies have called for a business model perspective on energy communities. This study presents a morphological analysis of 90 energy communities and pioneering companies that apply business model design options that can be adopted in energy communities. The sample was selected based on implementation examples focusing on community solutions, a multivector energy approach, or a combination of both. Based on this analysis, we have identified 25 emerging business model design options for energy communities. The presented typology allows users to configure tailor-made business models for energy communities, hence supporting community facilitators in the development process. The presented frequency analysis of the design options shows the potential for the further development of energy communities. The typology contributes to the literature on energy communities by offering one of the first studies to adopt a business model perspective. Through a morphological approach, the typology can be used as a tool for developers of energy communities, offering a robust set of business model design options.
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In the European energy transition, energy communities have gained an increasing amount of attention. To support widespread diffusion, academic and practice-oriented studies have called for a business model perspective on energy communities. This study presents a morphological analysis of 90 energy communities and pioneering companies that apply business model design options that can be adopted in energy communities. The sample was selected based on implementation examples focusing on community solutions, a multivector energy approach, or a combination of both. Based on this analysis, we have identified 25 emerging business model design options for energy communities. The presented typology allows users to configure tailor-made business models for energy communities, hence supporting community facilitators in the development process. The presented frequency analysis of the design options shows the potential for the further development of energy communities. The typology contributes to the literature on energy communities by offering one of the first studies to adopt a business model perspective. Through a morphological approach, the typology can be used as a tool for developers of energy communities, offering a robust set of business model design options.
Conference paper
(2023)
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Juliane Seika, M.D. Kubli
EV drivers’ willingness to accept smart charging
Measuring preferences of potential adopters
Journal article
(2022)
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Merla Kubli
The increasing convergence of the mobility and electricity sectors creates many opportunities and challenges around electric vehicle (EV) charging. It is a large interest of the industry to gain EV drivers’ consent for smart charging to facilitate the smooth integration of EVs into the electricity grid and maximize the miles driven on renewable power. This study assesses the preferences of potential adopters of smart charging solutions. Employing a choice experiment, this study measures the extent to which and under which conditions EV drivers are willing to adjust the charging location, duration, and charging mode. Based on a sample of 202 current and potential EV drivers, a total of 6′240 experimental decisions for different smart charging offers were analyzed. The results reveal crucial insights into the preference structure of current and potential EV drivers. Based on these findings, this study offers recommendations for providers of smart charging to win early adopters.
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The increasing convergence of the mobility and electricity sectors creates many opportunities and challenges around electric vehicle (EV) charging. It is a large interest of the industry to gain EV drivers’ consent for smart charging to facilitate the smooth integration of EVs into the electricity grid and maximize the miles driven on renewable power. This study assesses the preferences of potential adopters of smart charging solutions. Employing a choice experiment, this study measures the extent to which and under which conditions EV drivers are willing to adjust the charging location, duration, and charging mode. Based on a sample of 202 current and potential EV drivers, a total of 6′240 experimental decisions for different smart charging offers were analyzed. The results reveal crucial insights into the preference structure of current and potential EV drivers. Based on these findings, this study offers recommendations for providers of smart charging to win early adopters.
Conference paper
(2021)
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M.D. Kubli
Journal article
(2021)
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Merla Kubli, Patrizio Canzi
Flexibility aggregation is seen as a promising solution to facilitate the integration of solar and wind power into the energy system. While the solution is well known, it remains fairly uninvestigated in terms of the components needed to result in a business success. This study investigates the long-term business dynamics of flexibility aggregators with a simulation model. Our study finds that new entrants in flexibility markets are likely to be trapped in a “technology valley of death” situation on account of being “too small to bid”. Therefore, we test different strategies to overcome this critical initial phase. Diversifying revenue streams and introducing a leasing offer for flexible prosumers to enlarge the customer base are promising strategies to reach the relevant bidding size required to compete in balancing power markets. The analysis offers insights on the long-term uncertainties of the business case. The findings of this paper contribute to the discussion on how to develop functioning and robust business models for low-carbon flexibility. Furthermore, the study is of high practical relevance, as one of the burning questions for new entrants in flexibility markets is addressed with a concrete strategy analysis.
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Flexibility aggregation is seen as a promising solution to facilitate the integration of solar and wind power into the energy system. While the solution is well known, it remains fairly uninvestigated in terms of the components needed to result in a business success. This study investigates the long-term business dynamics of flexibility aggregators with a simulation model. Our study finds that new entrants in flexibility markets are likely to be trapped in a “technology valley of death” situation on account of being “too small to bid”. Therefore, we test different strategies to overcome this critical initial phase. Diversifying revenue streams and introducing a leasing offer for flexible prosumers to enlarge the customer base are promising strategies to reach the relevant bidding size required to compete in balancing power markets. The analysis offers insights on the long-term uncertainties of the business case. The findings of this paper contribute to the discussion on how to develop functioning and robust business models for low-carbon flexibility. Furthermore, the study is of high practical relevance, as one of the burning questions for new entrants in flexibility markets is addressed with a concrete strategy analysis.
Report
(2020)
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Ann-Kristin Zobel, Barbara Bencsik, M.D. Kubli, Jochen Markard, Maximilian Palmié, Devon Wemyss
10th consumer barometer renewable energy
10. Kundenbarometer Erneuerbare Energien
Web publication
(2020)
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Julia Course, M.D. Kubli, Rolf Wüstenhagen
Navigating through the unknown
How conjoint analysis reduces uncertainty in energy consumer modelling
Journal article
(2020)
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Merla Kubli
Prosumer communities as strategic allies for electric utilities
Exploring future decentralization trends in Switzerland
Journal article
(2019)
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Juliana Zapata Riveros, M. Kubli, Silvia Ulli-Beer
A prosumer community is a group of households that are organized together to consume energy from a common decentralized generation system such as solar photovoltaic (PV). The development of prosumer communities poses a threat to electric utilities, which currently apply a business model for centralized generation, sales and distribution of electricity. This study uses a System Dynamics simulation approach to analyze the various factors influencing the diffusion of “prosumer communities”, based on a case study in Switzerland, and provides insights into potential business opportunities for electric utilities in managing this transition challenge.
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A prosumer community is a group of households that are organized together to consume energy from a common decentralized generation system such as solar photovoltaic (PV). The development of prosumer communities poses a threat to electric utilities, which currently apply a business model for centralized generation, sales and distribution of electricity. This study uses a System Dynamics simulation approach to analyze the various factors influencing the diffusion of “prosumer communities”, based on a case study in Switzerland, and provides insights into potential business opportunities for electric utilities in managing this transition challenge.
The flexible prosumer
Measuring the willingness to co-create distributed flexibility
Journal article
(2018)
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Merla Kubli, Moritz Loock, Rolf Wüstenhagen
Rising shares of fluctuating renewables increase the need for flexibility in the power market. At the same time, the emergence of the prosumer has created new opportunities for co-creation of distributed flexibility. As of yet, there is surprisingly little empirical analysis in terms of whether individuals are actually ready to co-create flexibility, and if so, under which conditions these resources can be mobilized by grid operators or electricity supply companies. We address this gap in the energy economics literature with three studies analyzing in total 7′216 individual decisions in a series of choice experiments with 902 study participants in three main domains of residential energy prosumption: (1) solar PV plus storage, (2) electric mobility, (3) heat pumps. We develop a novel measure of the prosumers’ willingness to co-create flexibility, and solicit their preferences for power supply contracts with varying levels of flexibility to derive implied discomfort costs. Our results indicate that current and potential electric car and solar PV users exhibit a higher willingness to co-create flexibility than heat pump users. Reaping the potential in those two domains requires taking the prosumer perspective into account when designing policy instruments and creating adequate business models.
...
Rising shares of fluctuating renewables increase the need for flexibility in the power market. At the same time, the emergence of the prosumer has created new opportunities for co-creation of distributed flexibility. As of yet, there is surprisingly little empirical analysis in terms of whether individuals are actually ready to co-create flexibility, and if so, under which conditions these resources can be mobilized by grid operators or electricity supply companies. We address this gap in the energy economics literature with three studies analyzing in total 7′216 individual decisions in a series of choice experiments with 902 study participants in three main domains of residential energy prosumption: (1) solar PV plus storage, (2) electric mobility, (3) heat pumps. We develop a novel measure of the prosumers’ willingness to co-create flexibility, and solicit their preferences for power supply contracts with varying levels of flexibility to derive implied discomfort costs. Our results indicate that current and potential electric car and solar PV users exhibit a higher willingness to co-create flexibility than heat pump users. Reaping the potential in those two domains requires taking the prosumer perspective into account when designing policy instruments and creating adequate business models.
Journal article
(2018)
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Merla Kubli
Solar prosumers are about to revolutionize the power sector. Utilities are challenged in recovering the costs of distribution grids, as parts of their revenue basis decreases through self-consumption. Adjusting the grid tariff sets off a reinforcing feedback loop that increases the attractiveness of solar investments, but also leads to a distribution effect between solar prosumers and conventional consumers. The question is: How to recover distribution grid costs equitable without hampering the diffusion of solar power? Can the two criteria be fulfilled at the same time, or is do we aim for squaring a circle? To address this question, I present a System Dynamics simulation model designed to understand the interactions and assess these competing goals. The occurring distribution effect under the volumetric grid tariff with net purchase and sale appears to be rather limited. Simulation experiments reveal that grid tariff designs strongly influence investments for solar power. A capacity tariff can reduce deviations from the cost causation principle of solar prosumers and incentivizes investments in decentralized storage solutions to reduce peak demand. Nevertheless, also the capacity tariff causes a distribution effect.
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Solar prosumers are about to revolutionize the power sector. Utilities are challenged in recovering the costs of distribution grids, as parts of their revenue basis decreases through self-consumption. Adjusting the grid tariff sets off a reinforcing feedback loop that increases the attractiveness of solar investments, but also leads to a distribution effect between solar prosumers and conventional consumers. The question is: How to recover distribution grid costs equitable without hampering the diffusion of solar power? Can the two criteria be fulfilled at the same time, or is do we aim for squaring a circle? To address this question, I present a System Dynamics simulation model designed to understand the interactions and assess these competing goals. The occurring distribution effect under the volumetric grid tariff with net purchase and sale appears to be rather limited. Simulation experiments reveal that grid tariff designs strongly influence investments for solar power. A capacity tariff can reduce deviations from the cost causation principle of solar prosumers and incentivizes investments in decentralized storage solutions to reduce peak demand. Nevertheless, also the capacity tariff causes a distribution effect.
Participative Modelling of Socio-Technical Transitions
Why and How Should We Look Beyond the Case-Specific Energy Transition Challenge?
Journal article
(2017)
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Silvia Ulli-Beer, Merla Kubli, Juliana Zapata, Michael Wurzinger, Jörg Musiolik, Bettina Furrer
Participative modelling (PM) is a promising approach to mutual learning about causal mechanisms and dynamics in socio-technical transitions. However, case-specific PM initiatives often fail to generate insights that inform related cases. We address this methodical limitation in a case study on the Swiss energy transition. The central question is as follows: How can a PM workshop series be designed to create insights that go beyond the single socio-technical transition case? Based on theorizing literature, we develop a process framework for generic PM based on system dynamics modelling and socio-technical transition frameworks. The framework differentiates the steps in theorizing and explains how to integrate different levels of theorizing into the PM process. We illustrate how we applied the framework in our PM workshop series. Our experiences show that workshop participants employ various conceptual tools (e.g. socio-technical frameworks or causal loop diagrams) to classify and clarify their own experience in general terms.
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Participative modelling (PM) is a promising approach to mutual learning about causal mechanisms and dynamics in socio-technical transitions. However, case-specific PM initiatives often fail to generate insights that inform related cases. We address this methodical limitation in a case study on the Swiss energy transition. The central question is as follows: How can a PM workshop series be designed to create insights that go beyond the single socio-technical transition case? Based on theorizing literature, we develop a process framework for generic PM based on system dynamics modelling and socio-technical transition frameworks. The framework differentiates the steps in theorizing and explains how to integrate different levels of theorizing into the PM process. We illustrate how we applied the framework in our PM workshop series. Our experiences show that workshop participants employ various conceptual tools (e.g. socio-technical frameworks or causal loop diagrams) to classify and clarify their own experience in general terms.