The rapid growth of electric vehicle adoption increases the urgency of developing circular solutions for end-of-life batteries. Repurposing EV batteries for stationary storage can reduce environmental impacts and human rights risks embedded in critical raw material supply chains, as well as Europe’s dependence on critical raw materials. Yet, the development of repurposing markets remains uncertain and differs across countries. Current research provides limited insight into how national contexts shape the diffusion of EV battery repurposing over time, particularly in relation to the dynamic and complex nature of this market. This thesis addresses this gap by analysing how contextual differences for the Netherlands and Sweden influence the diffusion of EV battery repurposing technology by answering the following research question: “How do the national contexts of the Netherlands and Sweden affect the diffusion of EV battery repurposing technology?”

To answer this question, a merged system dynamics model was developed by integrating two system dynamics models. The Circubat model captures the long-term market dynamics of the second-use EV battery sector from a profit-oriented perspective, incorporating country-specific parameters for supply, demand, treatment capacity, and policy interventions tailored to the Netherlands and Sweden. In parallel, a hybrid Technological Innovation Systems model evaluates innovation performance at a more abstract level. By integrating these two approaches, the merged model provides insights not only into the diffusion volumes of repurposed EV batteries, but also into the overall strength and quality of the underlying innovation system.
Although projected end-of-life EV battery streams are similar in both countries, diffusion volumes are substantially higher in the Netherlands. This is primarily driven by stronger structural demand for decentralised flexibility, resulting from high solar PV penetration and increasing grid congestion. From a system-dynamics perspective, demand functions as the central catalyst: stronger demand activates reinforcing feedback loops between scale, cost reductions, learning, and capacity expansion, whereas weaker demand dampens these dynamics and constrains long-term scaling. However, higher diffusion volumes do not necessarily indicate a well-developed innovation system. The Technological Innovation System assessment shows that overall system performance in both countries remains below half of its potential, reflecting persistent structural weaknesses that continue to constrain large-scale diffusion. Policy experiments testing taxation of new batteries, consumer subsidies for repurposed batteries, and demonstration funds reveal that effectiveness depends on the dominant national bottleneck. In demand-constrained Sweden, demand-oriented measures, particularly taxation and subsidies, effectively stimulate both demand and capacity expansion, while in the Netherlands their impact on supply remains limited due to feedstock constraints. Demonstration funds show more context-dependent effects, as higher input costs can raise prices and dampen demand under certain conditions. These findings underscore that policy effectiveness is strongly conditioned by national structural factors and requires alignment with the specific bottlenecks within each innovation system. ... Read more

Transport poverty is a growing concern in the Netherlands, with affordability emerging as one of its most pressing and persistent dimensions. Rising transport costs and evolving urban infrastructure increasingly limit certain population groups' access to essential services such as employment, education, and healthcare. While shared mobility offers a potentially flexible and cost-efficient solution, policymakers still lack insight into how affordability transport poverty evolves over time and how such policies influence its dynamics.

This thesis quantitatively investigates if shared mobility can alleviate affordability transport poverty through a System Dynamics (SD) modeling approach, using selected demographic groups of the municipality of Almere as a case study. The model captures key feedback mechanisms linking employment income, transport costs, and travel behavior across distinct population segments, referred to as transport groups. It simulates how these groups adjust travel patterns based on available budgets, transport needs, and employment conditions. Core model components include travel budget thresholds, transport expenditures, and employment income. The main research question of this study is:

“What are the key dynamics of affordability transport poverty, and to what extent do shared mobility policies influence these dynamics across different demographic groups?”

To address this, two shared mobility policies were simulated:

- (Policy 1) Last-mile regional hubs: This policy provides regional shared mobility to extend the range of accessible travel.

- (Policy 2) Subsidized micro-hubs: This policy locally provides two days of free shared mobility options per week.

The analysis starts with a detailed base case simulation, focused on individuals in Almere with two defining characteristics: (1) they have either an income below social minimum or a sub-modal income, and (2) they either own a car or do not. These factors define four distinct transport groups used in the simulations.

Base case results show variation in vulnerability across these groups. Individuals with car access and with incomes below social minimum levels consistently exhibit the highest risk of falling into affordability transport poverty. In these groups, high transport costs eventually led to limited access to jobs, constrained travel budgets, and reduced salary, forming self-reinforcing feedback loops. This creates a poverty trap that further restricts social and economic mobility. By contrast, those who did not own a car and with a sub-modal income experienced less severe or no affordability issues, even under worsening economic conditions.

Both policies tested introduce improvements, with policy 1 being the most effective in increasing both income and reducing transport poverty levels. However, while somewhat effective, their impact is relatively modest in terms of increasing income or reducing severe transport poverty, and neither policy is sufficient to reverse the broader trends that contribute to affordability transport poverty. Yet still, the importance of moderate improvements in income must not be understated, especially for lower-income groups, who can have significant quality of life improvements with only modest amounts of increased income.

These results suggest that while shared mobility policies offer a degree of support, they are unlikely to resolve transport poverty when implemented in isolation. Affordability constraints are closely tied to broader socio-economic conditions, including housing, employment, and urban form. This highlights the importance of integrated approaches. Effectively addressing affordability transport poverty requires these measures to be complemented by strategies like targeting wages, job distribution, housing policy, and long-term transport costs.

Moreover, the results also underscore the importance of timing: early-stage interventions yield greater impact, especially before feedback loops fully entrench poverty. Delayed implementation reduces effectiveness, even for the same policy design.

The presented results do have some limitations. One of them is that this research adopted a general approach to shared mobility, without considering the associated implementation costs. It is important to acknowledge that alternative policies may be more financially viable. In that case, shared mobility could instead be applied in more targeted and specific contexts where other measures prove ineffective—one example being individuals who are highly car dependent but are not able to afford one.

Moreover, although the model simplifies real-world complexities, it offers a robust framework for understanding the core dynamics of affordability transport poverty. It contributes a novel application of SD modeling to this domain and provides insights for local policy. By uncovering the underlying feedback mechanisms and evaluating targeted interventions, this study lays the groundwork for future SD-based research and supports more equitable, data-driven policy design in cities like Almere and beyond. ... Read more

This thesis investigates whether hedging price risk through pooled Contracts-for-Differences (CfDs) can provide efficient consumer protection. The study focuses on financial risk stemming from weather-induced RES variability that drives price volatility in decarbonizing electricity markets. A stylized long-term equilibrium model is developed to study the interactions between risk-averse household consumers and renewable energy generators under uncertainty. The model adopts a non-cooperative game-theoretic framework of which the solution is a Nash equilibrium and is solved using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). The pooled CfD is evaluated against five key performance indicators (KPIs): Market Efficiency, Risk Allocation, Targeting of Vulnerable Consumers, Energy Savings and Fiscal Sustainability. These KPIs are derived from examining the implications of past protection policies in light of the recent energy crisis. The modeling results show how pooled CfDs significantly reduce downside risk for household consumers and provide revenue stability for generators. Household consumers see reduced risk and increased expected values, whilst the RES pool generators see lowered expected returns. Pooling RES generation reduces volume and profile risks, improving hedge effectiveness to the household consumer. The findings of this study suggest that well-designed pooled CfDs can support consumer protection in liberalized electricity markets, but real-world implementation must consider the equity and design challenges. ... Read more

Population growth, economic development, and urbanisation are resulting in an increase in municipal solid waste, which is often landfilled in African countries. Landfill gas to energy (LFGE) projects utilise the methane emissions of landfills to generate energy. This could benefit African countries as it reduces waste and its associated emissions, and it improves energy supply. Although LFGE projects are already proven successful in other countries, they are not widely implemented in African countries.

This research investigated the reasons for the lacking diffusion and the conditions that will enable the emergence of LFGE projects in Africa. To this end, the innovation system surrounding LFGE projects, including the barriers to diffusion, was be described through the Technological Innovation System (TIS) framework. This research provides a conceptual model connecting the functional and the structural TIS approaches into a novel so called hybrid approach.

Through a literature review and exploratory expert interviews, 21 barriers to LFGE in Africa were identified. The barriers could be categorised into five categories: technical, institutional, organisational, social, and other. Eight barriers were incorporated into the conceptual model of the hybrid approach and converted into a system dynamics model, which was calibrated to South Africa. The results indicate that the wholesale price of electricity and the efficiency of the waste management system were the most important barriers to the diffusion of LFGE in Africa as they could individually cause diffusion or stagnation. These were followed by inaccessibility of the national electricity grid and public ownership of the landfill. The development of the national electricity grid and corruption turned out to have little to no impact on the development of the LFGE TIS. In terms of policies specific for LFGE, the model showed that an adequate feed-in tariff is the most impactful policy as it can create viability. This policy is followed by the obligation to generate electricity from LFGE as this can prevent the development of LFGE if implemented under the wrong circumstances. An obligation to buy the electricity from LFGE as well as a requirement to collect the LFG accelerate the diffusion, provided the most important barriers are overcome. Finally, the generation of carbon credits can partially compensate a low purchase price, which could create viability of LFGE in cases that would normally stagnate. Nevertheless, this effect is only temporary as the generation of carbon credits is not possible anymore once LFGE is considered to be the common practice in a country.

The results were synthesised into a flowchart indicating the different pathways to diffusion. This flowchart can be used by project developers to assess different countries on their LFGE potential. Additionally, the assessment of the institutional building block allows policymakers to effectively implement policies that enhance the diffusion of LFGE.
... Read more