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D.A. Vos

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Algorithms for Robust Prediction and Policy Optimization

Doctoral thesis (2025) - D.A. Vos, S.E. Verwer, R.L. Lagendijk
We increasingly encounter artificial intelligence-based technology in our daily lives, from smart home devices to self-driving cars to invisible systems running on our internet. Many artificial intelligence techniques use machine learning, algorithms that learn to predict or act based on collected data. Unfortunately, the most popular machine learning techniques, such as neural networks and ensembles, are so complex that humans cannot understand how they make predictions. Without understanding the prediction process, it is difficult to trust the model. Therefore, in this dissertation, we work on algorithms that learn models that are understandable to humans. The type of model we consider is a decision tree, a flowchart-like model that can easily be visualized so humans can understand it. These models ask a series of questions about an input and use the answers to derive a prediction.

Decision trees were popularized in the 1980s and extensively studied, but there is still room for improvement. The most popular algorithms for learning decision trees are fast but do not necessarily lead to the best performance. They are not robust, meaning tiny changes in the data can negatively influence the quality of their predictions. Also, the existing algorithms cannot be directly applied to problems where multiple sequential predictions have to be made. Therefore, this dissertation studies several techniques for learning decision trees for robustness and sequential decision making problems.

In Part I of the dissertation, we consider the problem of optimizing decision trees to make good predictions while being robust to small changes in the data. In Chapter 4, we tackle the problem of learning good decision trees quickly in this setting. We improved the runtime of an existing algorithm by speeding up one of the key operations. In Chapter 5, we solve the problem of finding the best possible robust decision tree. The idea is to formulate the problem as an Integer-Linear Program, a special mathematical problem that can be solved with highly optimized algorithms. In Chapter 6, we propose a method that allows learning of models that are more flexible in terms of robustness, i.e., by allowing data changes in different shapes. To create an efficient algorithm, we optimize only the model’s predictions, not the model’s question part. Finally, in Chapter 7, we use techniques for improving data privacy to enable robustness against another kind of data change: someone adding or removing data.

Part II of this dissertation is about sequential decision making problems. In these settings, we control a device or agent that tries to achieve some goal in a potentially uncertain environment. Sequential decision making problems are significantly different from the supervised learning problems considered in Part I since the data is not pre-collected. This class of problems encompasses many real-life problems; one of the simplest of those could be a thermostat that measures the temperature in a room and needs to decide whether to turn a heater on or off constantly. Highly complex problems such as self-driving cars can be modeled similarly. We aim to find a controller represented by a simple decision tree for such problems. Such a controller is called a policy, and by representing it with a small decision tree, humans can understand it. In Chapter 9, we assume that we have a perfect mathematical description of the problem and use it to find the best possible decision tree via Integer Programming techniques. Later in Chapter 10, we assume that we can only interact with the environment and do not have a mathematical description of the problem. In this setting, we find good policies by iteratively updating the tree to achieve better scores using gradient information.

In our research, we have developed various algorithms for learning decision trees in settings that are hard to optimize with existing methods: robust predictions and sequential decision making. We hope that our work on decision tree learning for these settings allows human-understandable machine learning to be used in more real applications in the future. By improving model understanding and robustness, we aim to enable machine learning systems that humans can trust.
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Conference paper (2023) - Daniël Vos, Sicco Verwer
Interpretability of reinforcement learning policies is essential for many real-world tasks but learning such interpretable policies is a hard problem. Particularly, rule-based policies such as decision trees and rules lists are difficult to optimize due to their non-differentiability. While existing techniques can learn verifiable decision tree policies, there is no guarantee that the learners generate a policy that performs optimally. In this work, we study the optimization of size-limited decision trees for Markov Decision Processes (MPDs) and propose OMDTs: Optimal MDP Decision Trees. Given a user-defined size limit and MDP formulation, OMDT directly maximizes the expected discounted return for the decision tree using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming. By training optimal tree policies for different MDPs we empirically study the optimality gap for existing imitation learning techniques and find that they perform sub-optimally. We show that this is due to an inherent shortcoming of imitation learning, namely that complex policies cannot be represented using size-limited trees. In such cases, it is better to directly optimize the tree for expected return. While there is generally a trade-off between the performance and interpretability of machine learning models, we find that on small MDPs, depth 3 OMDTs often perform close to optimally. ...

Explainable Machine Learning for Computer Security Applications

Conference paper (2023) - Azqa Nadeem, Daniël Vos, Clinton Cao, Luca Pajola, Simon Dieck, Robert Baumgartner, Sicco Verwer
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to improve the transparency of machine learning (ML) pipelines. We systematize the increasingly growing (but fragmented) microcosm of studies that develop and utilize XAI methods for defensive and offensive cybersecurity tasks. We identify 3 cybersecurity stakeholders, i.e., model users, designers, and adversaries, who utilize XAI for 4 distinct objectives within an ML pipeline, namely 1) XAI-enabled user assistance, 2) XAI-enabled model verification, 3) explanation verification & robustness, and 4) offensive use of explanations. Our analysis of the literature indicates that many of the XAI applications are designed with little understanding of how they might be integrated into analyst workflows – user studies for explanation evaluation are conducted in only 14% of the cases. The security literature sometimes also fails to disentangle the role of the various stakeholders, e.g., by providing explanations to model users and designers while also exposing them to adversaries. Additionally, the role of model designers is particularly minimized in the security literature. To this end, we present an illustrative tutorial for model designers, demonstrating how XAI can help with model verification. We also discuss scenarios where interpretability by design may be a better alternative. The systematization and the tutorial enable us to challenge several assumptions, and present open problems that can help shape the future of XAI research within cybersecurity. ...
Conference paper (2023) - Daniël Vos, Sicco Verwer
Decision trees are popular models for their interpretation properties and their success in ensemble models for structured data. However, common decision tree learning algorithms produce models that suffer from adversarial examples. Recent work on robust decision tree learning mitigates this issue by taking adversarial perturbations into account during training. While these methods generate robust shallow trees, their relative quality reduces when training deeper trees due the methods being greedy. In this work we propose robust relabeling, a post-learning procedure that optimally changes the prediction labels of decision tree leaves to maximize adversarial robustness. We show this can be achieved in polynomial time in terms of the number of samples and leaves. Our results on 10 datasets show a significant improvement in adversarial accuracy both for single decision trees and tree ensembles. Decision trees and random forests trained with a state-of-the-art robust learning algorithm also benefited from robust relabeling. ...

Learning to solve stochastic routing problems

Journal article (2023) - Yingqian Zhang, Laurens Bliek, Paulo da Costa, Reza Refaei Afshar, Robbert Reijnen, Tom Catshoek, Daniël Vos, Sicco Verwer, Fynn Schmitt-Ulms, More Authors...
This paper reports on the first international competition on AI for the traveling salesman problem (TSP) at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence 2021 (IJCAI-21). The TSP is one of the classical combinatorial optimization problems, with many variants inspired by real-world applications. This first competition asked the participants to develop algorithms to solve an orienteering problem with stochastic weights and time windows (OPSWTW). It focused on two learning approaches: surrogate-based optimization and deep reinforcement learning. In this paper, we describe the problem, the competition setup, and the winning methods, and give an overview of the results. The winning methods described in this work have advanced the state-of-the-art in using AI for stochastic routing problems. Overall, by organizing this competition we have introduced routing problems as an interesting problem setting for AI researchers. The simulator of the problem has been made open-source and can be used by other researchers as a benchmark for new learning-based methods. The instances and code for the competition are available at https://github.com/paulorocosta/ai-for-tsp-competition. ...
Conference paper (2022) - Jelle Vos, Daniël Vos, Zekeriya Erkin
Cloud services are an essential part of our digital infrastructure as organizations outsource large amounts of data storage and computations. While organizations typically keep sensitive data in encrypted form at rest, they decrypt it when performing computations, leaving the cloud provider free to observe the data. Unfortunately, access to raw data creates privacy risks. To alleviate these risks, researchers have developed secure outsourced data processing techniques. Such techniques enable cloud services that keep sensitive data encrypted, even during computations. For this purpose, fully homomorphic encryption is particularly promising, but operations on ciphertexts are computationally demanding. Therefore, modern fully homomorphic cryptosystems use packing techniques to store and process multiple values within a single ciphertext. However, a problem arises when packed data in one ciphertext does not align with another. For this reason, we propose a method to construct circuits that perform arbitrary permutations and mappings of such packed values. Unlike existing work, our method supports moving values across multiple ciphertexts, considering that the values in real-world scenarios cannot all be packed within a single ciphertext. We compare our open-source implementation against the state-of-the-art method implemented in HElib, which we adjusted to work with multiple ciphertexts. When data is spread among five or more ciphertexts, our method outperforms the existing method by more than an order of magnitude. Even when we only consider a permutation within a single ciphertext, our method still outperforms the state-of-the-art works implemented by HElib for circuits of similar depth. ...
Conference paper (2021) - D.A. Vos, S.E. Verwer
Recently it has been shown that many machine learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples: perturbed samples that trick the model into misclassifying them. Neural networks have received much attention but decision trees and their ensembles achieve state-of-the-art results on tabular data, motivating research on their robustness. Recently the first methods have been proposed to train decision trees and their ensembles robustly [4, 3, 2, 1] but the state-of-the-art methods are expensive to run. ...

A Secure and Privacy-Preserving Decentralized System for Freight Declaration

Millions of shipping containers filled with goods move around the world every day. Before such a container may enter a trade bloc, the customs agency of the goods’ destination country must ensure that it does not contain illegal or mislabeled goods. Due to the high volume of containers, customs agencies make a selection of containers to audit through a risk analysis procedure. Customs agencies perform risk analysis using data sourced from a centralized system that is potentially vulnerable to manipulation and malpractice. Therefore we propose an alternative: DEFenD, a decentralized system that stores data about goods and containers in a secure and privacy-preserving manner. In our system, economic operators make claims to the network about goods they insert into or remove from containers, and encrypt these claims so that they can only be read by the destination country’s customs agency. Economic operators also make unencrypted claims about containers with which they interact. Unencrypted claims can be validated by the entire network of customs agencies. Our key contribution is a data partitioning scheme and several protocols that enable such a system to utilize blockchain and its powerful validation principle, while also preserving the privacy of the involved economic operators. Using our protocol, customs agencies can improve their risk analysis and economic operators can get through customs with less delay. We also present a reference implementation built with Hyperledger Fabric and analyze to what extent our implementation meets the requirements in terms of privacy-preservation, security, scalability, and decentralization. ...