Earthquake-triggered fire domino scenarios (E-FDSs) arise frequently from the interaction between earthquakes and chemical installations, resulting in catastrophic multi-hazard coupling events. The complicated mutually amplified phenomena between natural disasters and chemical accidents significantly aggravates the escalation of domino accidents, which has posed great challenges for modeling and preventing E-FDSs. Under this impetus, this work proposes an advanced type-2 fuzzy probabilistic methodology to obtain the time-dependent failure probability of steel cylindrical tanks (SCTs) subjected to the earthquake-fire sequence. To cope with the limited prior knowledge on E-FDSs, a basic universal is established to describe the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage. The coupling failure criterion of SCTs is formulated by a type-2 fuzzy time-dependent limit state equation. A credibility-based stochastic simulation algorithm is developed for the hybrid uncertainty analysis (combining ambiguity and stochasticity). The proposed methodology is validated by case studies of a 5000 m³ fixed roof tank. Compared to the existing accident probability model, the proposed methodology can not only capture the fire resistance attenuation caused by the seismic damage but also provide a dynamic estimation of tank failure probability with respect to the fire exposure time. The proposed methodology can effectively and dynamically capture the accident evolution process, which in turn helps mitigate and prevent the spatiotemporal propagation of domino effects.

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An earthquake-triggered fire domino scenario (E-FDS) is an example of a typical multi-hazard coupling event. The seismic damage can affect the fire resistance of engineering structures, leading to significant mutually amplified phenomena. In this work, a two-stage experimental program is designed to expound the earthquake-fire coupling failure mechanism of steel cylindrical tanks (SCTs). Quasi-static tests are adopted to simulate the damage characteristics of SCTs under seismic excitation (Stage I). Fire tests are adopted to investigate the fire-resistance performance of pre-damaged SCTs (Stage II). The influences of seismic damage on the fire resistance of SCTs are particularly of interest. Three potential seismic damage degrees are considered. The experimental results show that tank specimens exhibit typical diamond-shaped buckling after Stage I. The coupling failure analysis of SCTs is conducted through sequential thermodynamic coupling simulations. Due to factors such as geometric deformation, residual stress, and thermal radiation absorption capacity, the fire resistance of SCTs is significantly attenuated by seismic damage. For the three damage states, fire resistance time attenuation coefficients (0.868, 0.716, 0.511) and critical temperature attenuation coefficients (0.910, 0.779, 0.672) were obtained. This work provides pivotal insights into the mutually amplified phenomena in E-FDSs.

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Industrial production intensification greatly enhances resource utilization efficiency and production efficiency within the modern petrochemical industry (MPI). However, densely located hazardous installations pose significant threats to workers, society and environment. Under this impetus, an advanced pareto-based optimization methodology is proposed for chemical tank farm (CTF) design. The objectives of domino risk minimization and land resource utilization efficiency maximization can be achieved through optimizing the locations and dimensions of storage tanks. A simplified quantitative domino risk assessment procedure is developed within a grid-based Cartesian coordinate system, which links the design parameters and risk values. A bi-objective optimization model is developed for problem formulation and a well-designed simulated annealing-based multi-objective particle swarm optimization is proposed for model solving. A CTF with six floating roof diesel tanks is adopted for case study. The simulated annealing-based jumping mechanism can effectively avoid the local optimum, which makes the algorithm easier to obtain the trade-off with great convergence and diversity. The proposed methodology can provide safer and more cost-effective design solutions. Results indicate that the design parameters can significantly affect the regional domino risk distribution. The conflicting nature between safety and economy is discussed. This work is of great significance for the safety and reliability of MPI.

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Liquid storage tanks play a vital role in the modern chemical process industry (CPI). The strong ground motion caused by large-scale earthquakes may easily impose severe structural damage on liquid storage tanks, leading to a series of catastrophic cascaded events. The seismic damage estimation of liquid storage tanks is a challenging problem, as the fluid-structure interaction exhibits extremely complicated and non-stationary response behavior. This study develops a novel data-driven methodology to estimate the seismic damage state probability distribution of liquid storage tanks in the contexts of label ambiguity and data imbalance. With the support of the advanced deep learning framework, synthetic oversampling methods, and label enhancement techniques, a hybrid deep belief network-based label distribution learning system (HDBN-LDLS) is proposed for probability distribution learning. The proposed HDBN-LDLS is evaluated on the widely used ALA database. Simulation results indicate that HDBN-LDLS can achieve a balanced estimation for all damage states while maintaining sufficient robustness to cope with label ambiguity. The reliability of the obtained data-driven model is validated by a damaged tank in the 2006 Silakhor earthquake. For practical applications, a more natural way to estimate a seismic damaged tank is to assign a membership degree to each possible damage state. The proposed methodology can quickly obtain the seismic damage state probability curves of a specific liquid storage tank, which can be used to support quantitative risk assessment and seismic design.@en

A domino effect triggered by a natural event (a so-called Natech domino effect) represents a typical high-impact low-probability (HILP) event, which may lead to catastrophic consequences. The presence of safety barriers could have an impact on the effects by impeding propagation patterns and mitigating potential consequences. However, coordinating and maintaining safety measures to establish an effective barrier system against Natech domino effects is complicated. In this paper, the concept of what constitutes a safety barrier and the principles of barrier management are reviewed. Subsequently, the complex phenomenon of Natech domino effects is studied at the individual installation level, while the propagation pattern is explored at the system level. The application of safety barriers is discussed with the aim of coping with potential Natech domino effects. A systematic framework of barrier management is developed to establish and improve the barrier system in the whole cycle (design & construction, operation, accident, recovery & improvement) of a chemical industrial area. The challenges are discussed to highlight future study needs.@en

Natural hazards may rapidly lead to a massive domino chain in chemical industrial parks (CIPs). This work develops a high-efficiency and systematic analytical framework that is applicable to a broad range of uncertain and time-varying factors related to the evolution process of natural hazard-induced domino chain (NHDC). Specifically, the evolution mechanism of NHDC is revealed from a macro-systemic perspective. An event-driven disaster chain evolution system is developed, of which the system state transition is formulated by a Markov decision process and a temporal-difference learning algorithm. A system dynamic risk model is proposed to analyze the dynamic risk associated with NHDC. An earthquake-induced Na-tech scenario is adopted to demonstrate the methodology. Computational results indicate that the proposed methodology is competitive in simulating large-scale system state transition spaces. The involvement of natural hazards would lead to a more complex and severe evolution pattern. Five distinctive stages of the whole NHDC were identified. We found that the value of system dynamic risk is likely to surge in the deterioration stage. Our methodology can dynamically identify the critical system temporal intervals and units at each evolution stage, which has the potential to support the prevention and mitigation of such catastrophic chain events.@en