In recent years, rising energy demand and intensifying climate change impacts have placed urban energy systems under growing pressure. Higher average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are projected to substantially increase cooling demand. UBEM offers a means to analyse su
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In recent years, rising energy demand and intensifying climate change impacts have placed urban energy systems under growing pressure. Higher average temperatures and more frequent heatwaves are projected to substantially increase cooling demand. UBEM offers a means to analyse such dynamics at the district scale; however, vegetation effects on building energy use remain under-represented. Existing approaches often rely on multiple coupled models, apply to small spatial extents, or omit future climate scenarios, thereby limiting their usefulness for urban planning and climate adaptation strategies.
In this thesis, we introduce a neighbourhood-scale workflow that integrates a tree planting scenario into a single simulation-based UBEM platform. The main characteristic of the method lies in its use of standardised CityGML building models, simplified yet seasonally dynamic vegetation representations, and a unified modelling environment that allows consistent comparison of a planting strategy under both current and projected 2050 climate conditions. Six scenarios were applied to two contrasting Rotterdam neighbourhoods to quantify heating and cooling demand at building and neighbourhood levels while separating climate-driven changes from vegetation impacts.
Results indicate that, between 2023 and 2050, cooling demand increases by 32–39%, while heating demand decreases by approximately 12%. Adding deciduous trees reduces neighbourhood cooling demand by 3–10%, depending on location and climate scenario, but winter shading introduces heating penalties of up to 2%, leading to small net annual changes at the neighbourhood scale (0.9 to 0.4%). Building-level effects are more heterogeneous: in compact districts, additional trees sometimes block limited winter solar gains, while in open areas with high cooling exposure, they consistently reduce peak summer loads. Orientation and facade exposure emerge as key factors shaping the balance between summer benefits and winter penalties.
The workflow produces spatially explicit maps and scenario comparisons to support an energy-aware, location-specific planting strategy. However, simplified tree geometry, static building stock assumptions, monthly climate inputs, and computational limits constrain the accuracy and scalability of the results. Future research should integrate hourly climate data, species specific vegetation models, dynamic retrofitting scenarios, and larger spatial domains to better capture seasonal variability, urban morphological diversity, and the inter actions between greening and energy system decarbonisation pathways.