Accurate phenotype prediction based on genetic information has numerous societal applications, such as crop design or cellular factories. Epistasis, when biological components interact, complicates modelling phenotypes from genotypes. Here we show an approach to mitigate this complication for polarity establishment in budding yeast, where mechanistic information is abundant. We coarse-grain molecular interactions into a so-called mesotype, which we combine with gene expression noise into a physical cell cycle model. First, we show with computer simulations that the mesotype allows validation of the most current biochemical polarity models by quantitatively matching doubling times. Second, the mesotype elucidates epistasis emergence as exemplified by evaluating the predicted mutational effect of key polarity protein Bem1p when combined with known interactors or under different growth conditions. This example also illustrates how unlikely evolutionary trajectories can become more accessible. The tractability of our biophysically justifiable approach inspires a road-map towards bottom-up modelling complementary to statistical inferences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

A bottom-up route towards predicting evolution relies on a deep understanding of the complex network that proteins form inside cells. In a rapidly expanding panorama of experimental possibilities, the most difficult question is how to conceptually approach the disentangling of such complex networks. These can exhibit varying degrees of hierarchy and modularity, which obfuscate certain protein functions that may prove pivotal for adaptation. Using the well-established polarity network in budding yeast as a case study, we first organize current literature to highlight protein entrenchments inside polarity. Following three examples, we see how alternating between experimental novelties and subsequent emerging design strategies can construct a layered understanding, potent enough to reveal evolutionary targets. We show that if you want to understand a cell's evolutionary capacity, such as possible future evolutionary paths, seemingly unimportant proteins need to be mapped and studied. Finally, we generalize this research structure to be applicable to other systems of interest.