Northern Europe experiences vertical land motion and sea level changes as a consequence of past changes in ice sheet cover in Fennoscandia and the British Isles. The process, called glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), is controlled by the subsurface structure. Numerical models of GIA can be compared to observations of uplift or past sea level changes to constrain the subsurface structure, and such models can also be used to correct present-day sea level observations to reveal sea level changes due to climate change. GIA models for northern Europe usually adopt a homogeneous upper mantle viscosity even though seismic studies indicate contrasting elastic lithosphere thickness and upper mantle structure between Northwestern Europe and Eastern Europe. This raises the question whether the effect of lateral variations in structure (3-D viscosity) can be detected in observations of GIA and whether including such variations can improve GIA model predictions. In this study, we compare model output from a finite element GIA model with 3-D viscosity to observations of paleo sea level and current vertical land motion. We use two different methods to derive 3-D viscosities, based on seismic velocity anomalies and upper mantle temperature estimates. We use three different reconstructions of the Eurasian ice sheet, one based on an inversion using a 1-D viscosity model, and two others based on glacial geology and modelling. When we use these two reconstructions, we find that the data are fit better using 3-D viscosity models. Models with two separate 1-D viscosities for Fennoscandia and for the British Isles cannot replicate a 3-D model because a 3-D model redistributes GIA-induced stresses differently from a combination of models with 1-D viscosities. The fit to data across Fennoscandia is improved when, as indicated by seismic models, the upper mantle viscosity is higher than for the rest of Northern Europe. The best fit is obtained with a model with dry olivine rheology, in agreement with other evidence from Fennoscandia. ... Read more

Rates of relative sea-level rise during the final stage of the last deglaciation, the early Holocene, are key to understanding future ice melt and sea-level change under a warming climate¹. Data about these rates are scarce², and this limits insight into the relative contributions of the North American and Antarctic ice sheets to global sea-level rise during the early Holocene. Here we present an early Holocene sea-level curve based on 88 sea-level data points (13.7–6.2 thousand years ago (ka)) from the North Sea (Doggerland^3,4). After removing the pattern of regional glacial isostatic adjustment caused by the melting of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, the residual sea-level signal highlights two phases of accelerated sea-level rise. Meltwater sourced from the North American and Antarctic ice sheets drove these two phases, peaking around 10.3 ka and 8.3 ka with rates between 8 mm yr⁻¹ and 9 mm yr⁻¹. Our results also show that global mean sea-level rise between 11 ka and 3 ka amounted to 37.7 m (2σ range, 29.3–42.2 m), reconciling the mismatch that existed between estimates of global mean sea-level rise based on ice-sheet reconstructions and previously limited early Holocene sea-level data. With its broad spatiotemporal coverage, the North Sea dataset provides critical constraints on the patterns and rates of the late-stage deglaciation of the North American and Antarctic ice sheets, improving our understanding of the Earth-system response to climate change. ... Read more

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, from ∼26 to 20 ka BP) was the most recent period with large ice sheets in Eurasia and North America. At that time, global temperatures were 5–7 ∘C lower than today, and sea level ∼125 m lower. LGM simulations are useful to understand earth system dynamics, including climate–ice sheet interactions, and to evaluate and improve the models representing those dynamics. Here, we present two simulations of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB) with the Community Earth System Model v2.1 (CESM2.1) using the Community Atmosphere Model v5 (CAM5) with prescribed ice sheets for two time periods that bracket the LGM period: 26 and 21 ka BP. CESM2.1 includes an explicit simulation of snow/firn compaction, albedo, refreezing, and direct coupling of the ice sheet surface energy fluxes with the atmosphere. The simulated mean snow accumulation is lowest for the Greenland and Barents–Kara Sea ice sheets (GrIS, BKIS) and highest for British and Irish (BIIS) and Icelandic (IcIS) ice sheets. Melt rates are negligible for the dry BKIS and GrIS, and relatively large for the BIIS, North American ice sheet complex (NAISC; i.e. Laurentide, Cordilleran, and Innuitian), Scandinavian ice sheet (SIS), and IcIS, and are reduced by almost a third in the colder (lower temperature) 26 ka BP climate compared with 21 ka BP. The SMB is positive for the GrIS, BKIS, SIS, and IcIS during the LGM (26 and 21 ka BP) and negative for the NAISC and BIIS. Relatively wide ablation areas are simulated along the southern (terrestrial), Pacific and Atlantic margins of the NAISC, across the majority of the BIIS, and along the terrestrial southern margin of the SIS. The integrated SMB substantially increases for the NAISC and BIIS in the 26 ka BP climate, but it does not reverse the negative sign. Summer incoming surface solar radiation is largest over the high interior of the NAISC and GrIS, and minimum over the BIIS and southern margin of NAISC. Summer net radiation is maximum over the ablation areas and minimum where the albedo is highest, namely in the interior of the GrIS, northern NAISC, and all of the BKIS. Summer sensible and latent heat fluxes are highest over the ablation areas, positively contributing to melt energy. Refreezing is largest along the equilibrium line altitude for all ice sheets and prevents 40 %–50 % of meltwater entering the ocean. The large simulated melt for the NAISC suggests potential biases in the climate simulation, ice sheet reconstruction, and/or highly non-equilibrated climate and ice sheet at the LGM time. ... Read more

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass balance is examined with an Earth system/ice sheet model that interactively couples the GrIS to the broader Earth system. The simulation runs from 1850 to 2100, with historical and SSP5-8.5 forcing. By the mid-21st century, the cumulative GrIS contribution to global mean sea level rise (SLR) is 23 mm. During the second half of the 21st century, the surface mass balance becomes negative in all drainage basins, with an additional SLR contribution of 86 mm. The annual mean GrIS mass loss in the last two decades is 2.7-mm sea level equivalent (SLE) year⁻¹. The increased SLR contribution from the surface mass balance (3.1 mm SLE year⁻¹) is partly offset by reduced ice discharge from thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers. The southern GrIS drainage basins contribute 73% of the mass loss in mid-century but 55% by 2100, as surface runoff increases in the northern basins. ... Read more