High-water levels in the Rhine-Meuse delta are going to rise in the upcoming decades due to climate change with the accompanied sea level rise and the increase of the frequency of extreme Rhine discharges. The flood prone areas not protected by flood defenses at the Island of Dordrecht are directly influenced by the increase of these high-water levels, leading to an increase in the future flood risk. To lower this risk, the Delta21 project has been proposed. By pumping water from the Haringvliet, the high-water levels in the delta are lowered. It is unclear if an optimal operation of Delta21 for the flood prone areas of Dordrecht exists and if the reliability of the project impacts this high-water level reduction.

The main objective of this report is to determine if the inclusion of Delta21 to the flood protection system of the Rhine-Meuse delta can provide a significant reduction of the flood risk of the flood prone areas at Dordrecht. Furthermore, it should be determined if an optimal operational scheme is possible in which the flood protection system with Delta21 can comply with all the flood requirements of the flood prone areas at Dordrecht and limitations to the Europoort barrier and Delta21 project while considering the reliability of the Delta21 project and the climate scenarios of the year 2100.

It was determined that the present flood risk at the flood prone areas at the Island of Dordrecht is equal to €110,000 per year. For the minimum, medium and maximum scenario for the year 2100 this risk increases to €390,000, €1,300,000 and €8,100,000 per year respectively. The implementation of the optimal operation of Delta21 reduces this risk with 23, 15 and 64 %. To obtain a flood risk reduction of 64 % for the maximum scenario, the closure frequency of the Europoort barrier, which may not be larger than three times per year, is equal to ten times per year. Furthermore, the flood risk as a percentage of the average annual income per household at the flood prone areas may not exceed 1 %, but for the medium onward this limit is exceeded at the historical harbor (city center). The maximum allowable probability of failure per pump of the pumping station and per siphon of the spillway of Delta21 is about 0.5 if the correlation between the components of both these systems is smaller than 0.9.

The inclusion of Delta21 in the current flood protection system with the present Europoort closure level can provide a significant reduction of the future flood risk of the flood prone areas at Dordrecht. However, it is not possible to create an optimal operational scheme for all scenarios of the year 2100 in which the flood protection system with Delta21 complies with the flood requirements of the flood prone areas and the limitations of the Europoort barrier. Finally, the reliability of the new Delta21 components is non-decisive for the flood risk assessments that have been made as long as the components are not fully dependent.

The Netherlands is a low-lying delta and therefore prone to flooding. After the flood in 1953, the Delta Committee was established which commenced the Delta Works to enhance water safety for the society and economy. The Maeslant Barrier and Eastern Scheldt Barrier are the largest and most technologically advanced flood defences which are part of the Delta Works. These storm surge barriers shorten the effective coastline to reduce the risk of flooding within the Rhine-Meuse Delta and the Eastern Scheldt. However, the climate is changing and the risk of accelerated sea level rise increases. The problem is that the current storm surge barriers are not designed to withstand significant sea level rise. Sea level rise influences the hydraulic loads on the barriers which consequently increase the failure probability of these flood defences. International research argues that future sea level rise is much more uncertain than previously thought because of the instability of the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Therefore, it is critical to identify the degree of uncertainty of climate change and sea level rise to develop effective strategies for the storm surge barriers. This study uses a risk analysis to analyze the critical risk factors which could affect the performance and remaining lifespan of the Maeslant Barrier and the Eastern Scheldt Barrier. When sea level rise exceeds the tipping point of the storm surge barrier, the barrier fails to deliver sufficient water safety and adjustments are required to comply with the strategies of the Delta Programme. Therefore, this research has developed feasible and affordable solutions to increase the performance and remaining technical lifetime in case of accelerated sea level rise.