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M. Pupić Vurilj

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Case Study of 29 May 2017 Meteotsunami at the Dutch Coast

Master thesis (2026) - J.D. Bergmann, Gozde Guney Dogan, José A. Á. Antolínez, F.J. Lopez Dekker, M. Pupić Vurilj
Meteotsunamis are long ocean waves generated by fast-moving atmospheric disturbances that transfer energy to the ocean surface through resonance mechanisms. One of the primary amplification mechanisms, Proudman resonance, leads this displaced wave to grow over space and time as long as the speeds of the ocean wave and pressure wave are similar to each other; other resonance mechanisms can also lead to further growth of a meteotsunami wave. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, predicting them can present a challenge, particularly in regions where the conditions leading to their generation and amplification are not yet fully understood. Although meteotsunamis have been observed along the Dutch coast, the mechanisms governing their occurrence and amplification remain insufficiently investigated.
The meteotsunami of 29 May 2017 provides an opportunity to investigate the extent to which current available models can approximate the reproduce observed meteotsunami characteristics, as well as improve the understanding of meteotsunami dynamics along the Dutch coast. To achieve this, sea level and atmospheric pressure records from predominantly Dutch monitoring stations were analyzed using wavelet and spectral analysis to identify key characteristics of the event, including its dominant periods. These findings were subsequently used to reconstruct the 2017 meteotsunami through coupled atmospheric pressure forcing and numerical ocean modelling. The reconstructed model was evaluated through comparisons with available observations and was found to reproduce the timing and order of magnitude of the observed meteotsunami response with reasonable accuracy. Following the reconstruction, a series of scenario experiments was performed in which atmospheric disturbance speed and propagation direction were systematically varied.
The scenario experiments identified a favorable atmospheric disturbance speed range of ca. 60-70 km hr⁻¹, in which the strongest wave amplification occurred across most stations. In contrast, directional sensitivity varied considerably along the Dutch coast. Stations located along the southern Dutch coast exhibited the strongest amplification for disturbances arriving from the north, whereas stations further north were generally more sensitive to disturbances arriving from the southwest. The results further indicate a gradual transition in directional sensitivity from the southern to the northern Dutch coast, highlighting the influence of local coastal geometry and exposure on meteotsunami amplification.
Overall, the results confirm that meteotsunami amplification along the Dutch coast is governed by a combination of regional resonance conditions and local coastal characteristics. Atmospheric disturbance speed acts as the primary regional control on amplification, while propagation direction and local geometry determine where the strongest responses occur. These findings improve the understanding of meteotsunami dynamics along the Dutch coast and provide a basis for future meteotsunami prediction and hazard assessment efforts.
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