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Ali Abdelshafy

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Master thesis (2026) - I. Koster, J.A. Annema, Ali Abdelshafy
With Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology, parked electric vehicles (EVs) can deliver electricity to the grid. The combination of this technology and the congested electricity grid in the Netherlands has created a favourable climate for V2G to take off. However, for V2G to move beyond its pilot phase it needs a stable business case. This thesis examines under what conditions fleet-based V2G can provide a viable business case for a fleet operator. Using Utrecht Energized, one of the first large scale applications of fleet-based V2G as a case study.

This study applies a mixed-methods approach combining empirical charging data, interviews and literature into a ten-year financial cost model. Five value streams were identified: reduced charging costs due to energy arbitrage, congestion services, balancing services on the Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve (aFRR) market, group transport agreements, and public support.

The value that a fleet operator can capture with these value streams is constrained at two levels. The first, is the actual battery capacity that can be used, which is much lower than the theoretical capacity. Due to several factors such as battery warranty conditions, minimum states of charge requirements, and mobility demand, the guaranteed minimum capacity drops from 52 kWh per car, to between 0.95 and 6.6 kWh per car, depending on the time period. Secondly, the value streams are constrained by market maturity, entry thresholds and the division of value.

In the current business model, only energy arbitrage and congestion services are used, which cover roughly half of the additional cost of V2G. Adding revenue from balancing markets and public support ensures the business case crosses the break-even point. This shows that the viability of fleet-based V2G depends on stacking revenue streams, increasing the minimum available capacity during contracted hours and increasing the fleet operators share of captured value. ...