YB
Y. Blom
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Solar tracking systems are photovoltaic installations that adjust the orientation of modules throughout the day to maximize energy production, enabling significant energy gains compared to fixed tilt systems. This thesis evaluates their technical and economical potential in Europe and consists of three key research questions: the development of an accurate simulation tool for tracking systems, the assessment of their energy gains across Europe, and an analysis of their economic potential and ability to supply power during peak demand.
First, a simulation model was developed, capable of reproducing the performance of horizontal single axis (HSATS), tilted single axis (TSATS), and dual axis tracking systems (DATS) under realistic utility-scale conditions. The model combines an accelerated ray-tracing technique with an optimization algorithm to identify the optimal position of the modules. Validation against experimental data showed relative errors of the yearly energy yield of 1.18% and 2.53% for mono- and bifacial HSATS, respectively. The second part of the thesis investigated energy gains across Europe, finding gains around 18% for HSATS, 25% for TSATS, and 35% for DATS. A key factor, however, is that tracking systems are more sensitive to inter-row shading than fixed tilt systems, which makes them better suited for low density PV configurations. Moreover, combining tracking with bifacial modules showed similar bifacial gains compared to fixed tilt. Finally, economic analysis revealed that while HSATS slightly increases the levelised cost of electricity (+2% in southern Europe, +5% in the Netherlands), tracking systems capture higher market prices due to their production during high demand hours. In 2020 this effect was small (below 4%), but by 2024 tracking systems had a captured electricity price that was between 6% and 15% higher, significantly improving their profits. Under these market conditions, HSATS and DATS showed to be a more profitable investment than fixed tilt if their capital expenditure increase remained below approximately 25% and 50%, respectively. Importantly, historical wholesale market conditions revealed a structural shift in optimal PV configurations. In 2020–2021 fixed tilt systems were the preferred choice, but by 2023–2024 HSATS became the most capital efficient investment across all evaluated countries. These findings demonstrate that the increasing volatility of European electricity markets strengthens the business case for solar tracking in Europe compared to fixed tilt systems. ...
First, a simulation model was developed, capable of reproducing the performance of horizontal single axis (HSATS), tilted single axis (TSATS), and dual axis tracking systems (DATS) under realistic utility-scale conditions. The model combines an accelerated ray-tracing technique with an optimization algorithm to identify the optimal position of the modules. Validation against experimental data showed relative errors of the yearly energy yield of 1.18% and 2.53% for mono- and bifacial HSATS, respectively. The second part of the thesis investigated energy gains across Europe, finding gains around 18% for HSATS, 25% for TSATS, and 35% for DATS. A key factor, however, is that tracking systems are more sensitive to inter-row shading than fixed tilt systems, which makes them better suited for low density PV configurations. Moreover, combining tracking with bifacial modules showed similar bifacial gains compared to fixed tilt. Finally, economic analysis revealed that while HSATS slightly increases the levelised cost of electricity (+2% in southern Europe, +5% in the Netherlands), tracking systems capture higher market prices due to their production during high demand hours. In 2020 this effect was small (below 4%), but by 2024 tracking systems had a captured electricity price that was between 6% and 15% higher, significantly improving their profits. Under these market conditions, HSATS and DATS showed to be a more profitable investment than fixed tilt if their capital expenditure increase remained below approximately 25% and 50%, respectively. Importantly, historical wholesale market conditions revealed a structural shift in optimal PV configurations. In 2020–2021 fixed tilt systems were the preferred choice, but by 2023–2024 HSATS became the most capital efficient investment across all evaluated countries. These findings demonstrate that the increasing volatility of European electricity markets strengthens the business case for solar tracking in Europe compared to fixed tilt systems. ...
Solar tracking systems are photovoltaic installations that adjust the orientation of modules throughout the day to maximize energy production, enabling significant energy gains compared to fixed tilt systems. This thesis evaluates their technical and economical potential in Europe and consists of three key research questions: the development of an accurate simulation tool for tracking systems, the assessment of their energy gains across Europe, and an analysis of their economic potential and ability to supply power during peak demand.
First, a simulation model was developed, capable of reproducing the performance of horizontal single axis (HSATS), tilted single axis (TSATS), and dual axis tracking systems (DATS) under realistic utility-scale conditions. The model combines an accelerated ray-tracing technique with an optimization algorithm to identify the optimal position of the modules. Validation against experimental data showed relative errors of the yearly energy yield of 1.18% and 2.53% for mono- and bifacial HSATS, respectively. The second part of the thesis investigated energy gains across Europe, finding gains around 18% for HSATS, 25% for TSATS, and 35% for DATS. A key factor, however, is that tracking systems are more sensitive to inter-row shading than fixed tilt systems, which makes them better suited for low density PV configurations. Moreover, combining tracking with bifacial modules showed similar bifacial gains compared to fixed tilt. Finally, economic analysis revealed that while HSATS slightly increases the levelised cost of electricity (+2% in southern Europe, +5% in the Netherlands), tracking systems capture higher market prices due to their production during high demand hours. In 2020 this effect was small (below 4%), but by 2024 tracking systems had a captured electricity price that was between 6% and 15% higher, significantly improving their profits. Under these market conditions, HSATS and DATS showed to be a more profitable investment than fixed tilt if their capital expenditure increase remained below approximately 25% and 50%, respectively. Importantly, historical wholesale market conditions revealed a structural shift in optimal PV configurations. In 2020–2021 fixed tilt systems were the preferred choice, but by 2023–2024 HSATS became the most capital efficient investment across all evaluated countries. These findings demonstrate that the increasing volatility of European electricity markets strengthens the business case for solar tracking in Europe compared to fixed tilt systems.
First, a simulation model was developed, capable of reproducing the performance of horizontal single axis (HSATS), tilted single axis (TSATS), and dual axis tracking systems (DATS) under realistic utility-scale conditions. The model combines an accelerated ray-tracing technique with an optimization algorithm to identify the optimal position of the modules. Validation against experimental data showed relative errors of the yearly energy yield of 1.18% and 2.53% for mono- and bifacial HSATS, respectively. The second part of the thesis investigated energy gains across Europe, finding gains around 18% for HSATS, 25% for TSATS, and 35% for DATS. A key factor, however, is that tracking systems are more sensitive to inter-row shading than fixed tilt systems, which makes them better suited for low density PV configurations. Moreover, combining tracking with bifacial modules showed similar bifacial gains compared to fixed tilt. Finally, economic analysis revealed that while HSATS slightly increases the levelised cost of electricity (+2% in southern Europe, +5% in the Netherlands), tracking systems capture higher market prices due to their production during high demand hours. In 2020 this effect was small (below 4%), but by 2024 tracking systems had a captured electricity price that was between 6% and 15% higher, significantly improving their profits. Under these market conditions, HSATS and DATS showed to be a more profitable investment than fixed tilt if their capital expenditure increase remained below approximately 25% and 50%, respectively. Importantly, historical wholesale market conditions revealed a structural shift in optimal PV configurations. In 2020–2021 fixed tilt systems were the preferred choice, but by 2023–2024 HSATS became the most capital efficient investment across all evaluated countries. These findings demonstrate that the increasing volatility of European electricity markets strengthens the business case for solar tracking in Europe compared to fixed tilt systems.