Enhancing Transportation Resilience under Multi-Hazard Conditions: A Tool for the Mid-Term Recovery Phase in Earthquake-Affected Regions
A Case Study of Earthquake and Flood Disruptions in Antakya, Türkiye
M.R.J. van der Jagt (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
Jan Anne Annema – Mentor (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
N.Y. Aydin – Mentor (TU Delft - System Engineering)
S. Balakrishnan – Mentor (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
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Abstract
The recovery of transport infrastructure is crucial for earthquake-affected areas, yet these systems remain vulnerable during the intermediate recovery phase, particularly when additional hazards strike. This research investigates how the interaction between earthquakes and floods affects the resilience and recovery of transportation networks. Although awareness of multi-hazard risks is growing, little is known about how multi-hazards disrupt mid-term recovery.
Through an illustrative case study of Antakya, Türkiye, severely affected by the February 2023 earthquake and subsequent flooding, a modeling framework is developed that overlays flood simulations onto an earthquake-damaged network. This integrated approach combines flood hazard mapping with network performance analysis, capturing how inundation fragments connectivity and reduces access to essential services. Such disruptions are particularly damaging during the intermediate recovery phase, when infrastructure remains only partially functional and communities are highly sensitive to further disruption.
The analysis adopts three performance metrics to assess different dimensions of network resilience. Network centrality identifies structurally critical road segments for maintaining connectivity. Accessibility to critical services evaluates whether shelters retain access to essential facilities such as hospitals and markets. Disruption-adjusted shelter flows estimate howmany potential trips are affected by flooded roads, linking structural exposure to functional loss. These indicators are assessed across both single-hazard and multi-hazard scenarios, with flood intensities corresponding to 25-, 50-, and 100-year return periods.
Results show that flooding worsens network performance in a system already weakened by earthquake damage. Accessibility to critical amenities deteriorates, particularly in communities reliant on a limited number of corridors. These disruptions reroute shelter-related travel flows onto secondary roads, increasing travel distances and reducing accessibility, particularly in areas with low network connectivity. Spatial analysis highlights that targeted recovery of a few key corridors could improve mobility and prevent further disruptions affecting already displaced communities during multi-hazard events.
From a policy perspective, the findings emphasize the importance of adopting a multi-hazard approach in mid-term recovery planning. Strategies designed for a single hazard often lack robustness when additional threats emerge. Incorporating multi-hazard risk perspectives enables an improved understanding of vulnerabilities and supports more effective recovery planning. Doing so requires the integration of data on flood risks, transport infrastructure, and population movements into the recovery process.