An Epidemic Model of Estimating Metro Station Vulnerabilities Towards Delay Propagation

Abstract

Metro networks face operational challenges due to increasing ridership and system growth, particularly in managing delay propagation. Epidemiology models have recently been an interesting method in transportation research for studying delays. This study, therefore, aims to investigate if the Susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model is suitable to help model delay propagation in a metro network through its ability to reproduce the vulnerability of metro stations for specific instances. Using data from the Washington Metro Network, two groups of delay propagation instances were selected and used for model training and testing using a differential evolution algorithm. The results indicate that the vulnerability values as calculated from the reallife data do not follow the expected trend. Still, our model can capture this variation with good vulnerability estimation accuracy for both groups. Also, the predicted vulnerability values for the first group are more accurate than for the second group. However, limitations such as underestimation and overestimation of station vulnerabilities, and sensitivity to training data were observed. These challenges stemmed from the dynamics between specific parameters and the lack of additional factors.