The Energy Transition in the Built Environment

Abstract

EPA: Multi-Modelling for Complex Challenges With
the acknowledgement of international grand challenges, the demand for better
and ever more complex models is likely to increase a manifold. Where single models
may no longer be able to grasp the complexities of a system, multi-modelling
(Nikolic, Warnier, et al., 2019; Vangheluwe, 2000) enables the combination of
the strengths of different models whilst enabling the development of
multi-perspective insights. In this research, I developed a multi-model to
provide policymakers in The Netherlands with insights on how to steer the Urban
Energy Transition at both national and municipal level. This is done by
combining a System Dynamics (Forrester, 1961) model for evaluating market
behaviour at the national scale, and an Agent-Based Model (Epstein &
Axtell, 1996) for investigating investment behaviour at the neighbourhood
level. The results from experiments with this model show that multi-perspective
insights can be very helpful in designing policies and strategies for dealing
with Sustainable Urban Development. It is found that challenges concerning the
conceptualisation phase of the Model Development Cycle, could turn out to be
opportunities for model development. As formalism selection and possible
overlapping scales between models requires extra effort and attention, this
attention results in model concepts that will be better evaluated, resulting in
better concepts to be developed altogether. The main challenge that is
currently unresolved, is that of the computational performance of multi-models.
Although worsened by the choice for Agent-Based Modelling as one of the
formalisms used in the multi-model, the computational requirements for the
simulation seriously hamper the opportunities for experimentation and analysis.
Although solutions can be found to minimise the computational demand or the
effects of it, improvements are required in either computational demand or
processing supply, for multi-models to become a suitable method for common
modelling and simulation practice. CME: Energy Transition in the Built
Environment With the EU goals (European Commission, 2018b) to reduce CO2
emissions to zero tons in 2050, The Netherlands has set up a climate agreement
(Klimaatakkoord, 2019) in which municipalities get a leading role in reducing
the carbon footprint of the Built Environment. To realise these goals, an
energy transition is inevitable and strategies need to be developed for
remodelling neighbourhoods into sustainable living environments. Before the end
of 2021, municipalities have to come up with a plan in which they decide what
neighbourhoods will be transformed and when. A problem in this is that
currently, municipalities do not have the resources and tools to do so (RTL,
2019; Schuttenhelm, 2020; Straver, 2019). Currently, existing models, such as
the Vesta MAIS model (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2019c) offered by the
national government, are missing two crucial aspects which should help
municipalities to set up their strategies: time dynamics and population
dynamics. The techno-economic approach does present the ’best’ solution but is
missing how to get there. Next to this, uncertainty around national policies
makes that it is very difficult to decide on a robust policy. To deal with the
aforementioned challenges, I use a multi-modelling approach (Nikolic, Warnier,
et al., 2019; Vangheluwe, 2000), using System Dynamics (Forrester, 1961) and
Agent-Based modelling (Epstein & Axtell, 1996) in which on the one hand,
the time dynamics and population dynamics aspects are incorporated, and on the
other hand multi-perspective insights on effects of national policies on
national goals as well as insights on the heterogeneous effects at the
municipal level are provided. An important finding is the crucial role of a CO2
tax on the realisation of national goals. Without this tax, homeowners and
housing corporations will not be motivated sufficiently to significantly invest
in insulation measures, making that fewer alternative heating systems will be
implemented. Next to this, it is found that major differences can be
distinguished between rural and urban areas. Heating grids will be a viable
starting point for urban municipalities to start their transition due to the availability
of residual heat. For rural municipalities, this will be more difficult due to
a dependency on low-temperature systems. There, starting with the
neighbourhoods that have the most potential to insulate is advised.