Dynamics of freight transport decarbonisation
A conceptual model
Verônica Ghisolfi (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Lóránt A. Tavasszy (TU Delft - Transport and Planning)
Gonçalo Homem Correia (TU Delft - Transport and Planning)
Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves (Federal University of Santa Catarina)
Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
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Abstract
As part of the global efforts to mitigate climate change, policymakers are designing measures to reduce the carbon emissions of the freight transport system. As global agreements for decarbonisation specify strict time windows, it is important to understand the speed at which the transport system is capable of changing. Our paper proposes a causal loop diagram based on System Dynamics that qualitatively maps the system’s causal and dynamic responses to five key decarbonisation strategies. As the main contribution, this conceptual model provided a broad overview of the freight system, formed by subsystems that interact with each other through feedback loops, forming its dynamic behaviour. Through this conceptual modelling effort, we can identify the rebound effects of policies over the whole system, which could defeat the desired decarbonisation results. The model pointed out policies and feedback loops as the dynamic levers to promote freight decarbonisation and influence the system’s dynamic responses.