Evaluating the Wind Repowering Potential in Europe

Abstract

Achieving Europe’s carbon neutrality by 2050 demands the expansion of all of the renewable energy sources, and especially onshore wind. Constraints such as aging wind turbines reaching their operational lifetime, limited land availability, and mounting social and environmental pressures constrain the escalation of new sites. The strategy of wind repowering—replacing turbines reaching their end-of-life with larger, higher-performance models on existing footprints— promises to increase the installed capacity, leverage the existing grid and site infrastructure, and reduce generation costs.

This thesis delivers the first continental-scale, quantitative evaluation of the onshore wind repowering strategy in Europe by collecting a European wind-park database, overlaying site classifications from the Global Wind Atlas and EuroDEM elevation topography, and applying a lifecycle capacity model to project decommissioning and repowering trajectories through 2050. Complementary modules estimate repowered rotor dimensions, select candidate turbines, and compute energy yields using ERA5 reanalysis, while a cost model integrates decommissioning expenses, projected CAPEX/OPEX, and financial metrics (LCOE, NPV, IRR). A spatial-footprint submodel then quantifies land requirements under competing repowering and greenfield-replacement scenarios.

Multiple repowering approaches were applied with fluctuating spatial constraints, resulting in an additional 60–82 GW of nameplate capacity by 2050—equivalent to a 33–45 % increase over a straight decommissioning-and-replacement baseline—and can generate up to 425.34 TWh annually, covering approximately 14.8 % of Europe’s 2022 electricity demand versus 11.9 % or 342.87 TWh under the baseline. From a financial standpoint, assuming a wholesale electricity price of €80/MWh and a moderate (14 %) learning‐rate scenario, repowering marginally lowers the mean LCOE from €68.0/MWh (replacement) to €67.4/MWh; over 46.6 % of sites achieve a higher NPV under repowering; By reusing foundations, roads, and grid connections, repowering cuts additional land requirements by 37–41 % relative to a straight replacement baseline. These results demonstrate that under moderate technological progress, repowering can cost-effectively expand Europe’s wind energy production, maximize site efficiency, and minimize environmental footprint.

Access the open-source model on GitHub - https://github.com/AngelosChatz/Evaluating_Wind_Repowering