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N. Goyal

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AbstractPolicy mixes—strategic combinations of policy objectives and instruments—are crucial for addressing complex societal challenges in sustainability transitions. Yet, how their characteristics—such as consistency, coherence, and credibility—emerge, and who shapes them remains unclear. This study poses the question: what role do actors play in shaping the characteristics of policy mixes? By integrating a co-evolutionary framework of policy mixes with a typology of policy entrepreneurship, we trace cycling policies in two Dutch cities using documents, reports, news articles, and interviews. Findings show that political entrepreneurs strengthened political credibility, problem brokers aligned policy objectives with societal needs, and process brokers improved coherence between policymaking and implementation, jointly enhancing policy effectiveness. We formulate propositions that clarify the role of different types of policy entrepreneurship in shaping policy mixes, contributing to research on policy mixes and the role of actors in sustainability transitions. ...

Impact of social networks and information policy on private adaptation to floods

Journal article (2026) - Thorid Wagenblast, Tatiana Filatova, Lauren Grimley, Antonia Sebastian, Nihit Goyal
Despite efforts to mitigate climate change, adaptation becomes critical. Among climate-induced hazards, flooding is the most costly and widespread, calling for adaptation across scales: from government-led to household-led adaptation. Private adaptation measures, if taken, reduce damages and speed up recovery. Empirical evidence suggests that among socio-behavioral factors, social norms and peer influence are crucial for households’ decisions to adapt. Yet, the role social networks play in household-level adaptation has not been studied systematically, even less so the interplay between private household adaptation and public information policies in the presence of social influences, the exchange of opinions and information within a social network that impacts individuals’ decisions. To improve the understanding of the impact of social influence on private household adaptation uptake, we build an empirically informed agent-based model of household behavior. We leverage household survey data collected in Harris County (Texas, USA) together with information on flood hazard scenarios to study the impact of private adaptation diffusion on flood damages under different social influence scenarios. Furthermore, we use the model to test how different information policy design choices—such as targeting specific households or all, and communicating different aspects of flood adaptation (e.g., flood damage, costs, or effectiveness of measures) --influence private adaptation diffusion and impact regional residual flood damage. We find that regardless of the structure of the social network, social influence triggers higher adaptation uptake by households, resulting in a 5–10% extra reduction in regional residual flood damage. Notably, the effect of social norms depends on the type of information exchanged within networks, where the opinion exchange on the effectiveness of measures and potential damages results in more private adaptation compared to the discussion on perceived costs of adaptation measures or the worry about flooding. Moreover, while information campaigns influence individual perceptions that facilitate household-led adaptation, the provision of information solely on expected damages is not as effective in steering public opinion and, thereby household adaptation, as its combination with information on coping measures that enable action. Our results demonstrate that social influence and information policy can shape the success of private action and highlight the importance of understanding the interaction among scales in climate change adaptation. ...
Journal article (2026) - Angel Hsu, Diego Manya, Nihit Goyal
Subnational climate commitments are widely viewed as potential catalysts of national climate ambition, yet systematic evidence on whether and under what conditions subnational action shapes national target-setting remains limited. We introduce the concept of catalytic cascading to describe a cumulative process in which expanding policy commitments change the likelihood of subsequent policy commitment, even at a different jurisdictional level, through reinforcing top-down, horizontal, and bottom-up dynamics, without necessarily following an abrupt threshold or tipping behavior. We examine this theory through the lens of vertical policy diffusion, assessing whether subnational net-zero target declarations are associated with later national net-zero adoption while accounting for country characteristics and cross-national peer influences. Using a novel global time-series dataset of national and subnational net-zero targets, we estimate discrete-time adoption models using a directed country-pair (dyad–time) event history design that incorporates dyad-specific similarity and exposure measures alongside within-country subnational coverage. Across specifications, the share of a country's population, GDP, or greenhouse gas emissions covered by subnational net-zero commitments is positively and statistically significantly associated with the probability of national target adoption. The estimated relationship is gradual and monotonic rather than characterized by a sharp inflection, suggesting that bottom-up influence operates through cumulative reinforcement rather than threshold acceleration in this setting. These findings provide empirical support for catalytic cascading as an observable bottom-up linkage within polycentric climate governance and clarify the conditions under which subnational momentum is plausibly consequential for national target-setting. ...

A Central Paradox and Computational Review of Adaptive Policymaking

Review (2026) - Ola G. El-Taliawi, Nihit Goyal
Policy robustness, that is, the capacity of policies to sustain performance across diverse and uncertain futures, is increasingly considered a core objective of public policymaking. Although adaptive policymaking is widely promoted as an approach to achieving policy robustness, it suffers from a central paradox highlighted by theories of the policy process: mechanisms intended to enable ongoing adjustment can generate entrenchment and opportunistic behavior through coalition stabilization, self-reinforcing feedback, institutional friction, and strategic agenda setting. While present in all policy systems, this paradox is likely more pronounced in the Global South, where high uncertainty and constrained administrative capacity intensify the political mechanisms that undermine adaptive policymaking. Despite rapid growth in the literature on policy robustness, it remains unclear to what extent this scholarship engages with the political processes through which policy adaptation unfolds over time. This study addresses that gap through a computational review of more than 300 publications on policy robustness and adaptive policymaking. The findings show that research in this area is dominated by domain-specific applications and methodological innovation, with limited attention to political dynamics. Governance perspectives are comparatively marginal, and explicit engagement with theories of the policy process is virtually absent. As a result, policy adaptation is largely conceptualized as a design problem rather than as a contested political process. The article concludes by explaining why this omission matters for theory and practice and by identifying avenues for integrating political analysis into future research on policy robustness. ...
Journal article (2026) - Milan L. Moleman, Felix J. Pot, Bert van Wee, Jonas De Vos, Iris Roeleven, Nihit Goyal, Marije Hamersma, Maarten Kroesen
Numerous studies have found influential factors of perceived accessibility levels in recent years. What is less well understood is the effect of perceived accessibility on travel, activities, and well-being. This is a significant omission in the respective body of literature as the primary goal of the transport system is to provide users with the necessary opportunities and possibilities to reach destinations and to participate in activities. Arguably, studying perceived accessibility and its determinants is only relevant if these perceptions in turn influence aspects such as travel behaviour, activity participation, satisfaction, and well-being. To fill this gap, this paper systematically identifies and analyses outcomes of perceived accessibility in terms of travel, activity participation, and well-being. For this purpose, we first identify links with outcomes of perceived accessibility in the literature. We then offer a conceptualisation based on the relations identified in the literature, which is empirically validated using a structural equation modelling approach. We find significant relations with activity participation and travel behaviour, but also with daily travel satisfaction, residential satisfaction, and overall life satisfaction. Finally, implications for policy and science as well as a research agenda with possible avenues for future research are presented. The most important lesson is that policies that consider ‘calculated’ accessibility only may fail to enhance satisfaction with life and to reduce (transport-related) social exclusion. Still, more research is needed to understand what other impacts of perceived accessibility are and how these outcomes of perceived accessibility, in turn, reinforce levels of perceived accessibility over time. ...
Conference paper (2025) - Ana Gagua, H.G. van der Voort, N. Goyal, A. Verbraeck
Responsible AI (RAI) governance is increasingly understood not as a static checklist of principles, but as a dynamic process embedded in institutional, organisational, and sociotechnical contexts. While several ethical frameworks exist, translating high-level principles into situated organisational practices remains challenging. Empirical studies examining how public sector organisations operationalise RAI remain fragmented, limiting cumulative insights. To address this gap, we conduct a realist synthesis review of 21 empirical studies. Our analysis shows that similar interventions in different contexts activate distinct mechanisms and produce divergent outcomes with varying degrees of alignment to RAI principles. From these variations, we identify three cross-cutting dynamics explaining outcomes: organisational embeddedness, power- expertise tensions, and trust-transparency relationships. Together, we term it the situated dynamics of RAI governance. This approach moves beyond asking whether interventions “work” to explain why similar interventions succeed in some contexts and fail in others. ...
Book chapter (2025) - Nihit Goyal, Michael Howlett
Sustainable urban transport is a complex challenge requiring innovation in technologies, culture, and policies. However, the relatively weak conceptualisation of agency in the transitions literature limits the usefulness of this approach for the governance of urban transport. The objective of this chapter is to contribute to the conceptualisation of agency in the multilevel perspective of sustainability transitions. We propose that two types of actors exercise agency to foster innovation: technology constituencies, which promote the adoption of specific technologies by citizens, businesses, or governments, and instrument constituencies, which promote the adoption of specific policy instruments. We posit that the two constitute distinct, albeit possibly overlapping, actors and that their relationships help better understand and explain how innovations evolve. We discuss the implications of this distinction for the governance of urban transport and argue that the presence of instrument and technology constituencies, and their relationships, should be examined more closely in future research. ...

The adoption of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive in the European Union

Journal article (2025) - Stephan Huber, Nihit Goyal, Thomas Hoppe, Tamara Metze
The transition to a decarbonized energy system requires the adoption of climate policy in sectors such as buildings, industry, and transport. This climate policy integration is subject to political processes, but there is a lack of empirical investigations on how these political processes take place and which drivers shape integrative policy change. We address these gaps by conducting an empirical analysis of the 2024 recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) of the European Union (EU), a part of the “Fit for 55” program aimed at integrating climate change mitigation into building policy. Specifically, we ask (1) how did levels of climate policy integration evolve in the policy process and (2) what were the drivers of changes in these levels? Based on a qualitative case study research design, we analyzed six interview transcripts, thirteen policy documents, and 59 newspaper articles. We find that the EPBD represents a significant increase in integration of climate policy with regards to policy objectives and policy instruments, but only a minor increase of integration in governance capacities. Levels of integration differed between policy venues and changed during the policy process, because of issue salience and political leadership. We suggest further research to investigate the role of interlinkages of these drivers for integration processes and derive as a policy implication that policy integration levels need integrative capacities at all stages of the policy process. ...

Incorporating justice in policy evaluation

Despite the recognition that policy evaluations are inherently normative as they are shaped by political and social values, justice is rarely addressed systematically in policy evaluation practice or research. By overlooking structural inequities and failing to scrutinize power dynamics, this omission risks hindering accountability, legitimizing injustice, and inhibiting policy learning. To help bridge this gap, we build on the policy success heuristic, which is a multidimensional approach for assessing programmatic, process, and political outcomes of public policy. Drawing on the philosophical literature on justice, we link three prominent categories—distributive, procedural, and recognition justice—with the dimensions of policy success. Based on this linkage, we propose a reflective framework that uniquely integrates justice principles into each dimension of the policy success heuristic. The framework can be applied ex-ante or ex-post to assess whether a policy is, or is likely to be, not only successful but also just, contributing to navigating the is/ought distinction at the heart of policy evaluation. ...

A Computational Review and Research Agenda for Policy Innovation

Journal article (2025) - Nihit Goyal, Valerie Pattyn, Mehmet Akif Demircioglu
Innovation in public policy is a rapidly expanding field, highlighting its critical role in addressing complex societal challenges. This bibliometric review (n = 17,264) synthesizes over 50 years of scholarship, systematically identifying key gaps, including conceptual fragmentation, limited theoretical engagement, methodological conservatism, and geographic and sectoral imbalance, and underutilization of the comparative perspective. These challenges constrain the field’s ability to address pressing global issues such as climate change adaptation, digital transformation, economic inequality, and the energy transition. This study proposes a comprehensive research agenda to bridge these gaps and move the field from niches toward more inclusive, integrative, and rigorous mainstream scholarship. ...
Journal article (2025) - Chitransh Lot, Nihit Goyal, Thomas Hoppe
Transnational municipal networks (TMNs) such as C40 or ICLEI have been posited to foster city-to-city learning in accelerating climate change mitigation and, thereby, facilitating the transition to net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. However, the existing literature on the role of climate networks has hardly examined the relationship between membership and climate change mitigation outcomes and impact, without which it is premature to be optimistic about TMNs role in the net-zero transition. In this article, we address this gap through a mixed methods analysis in the case of the C40 cities initiative. We combine a staggered difference-in-differences regression to shed light on the relationship between membership in the C40 initiative and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions during 2002–18 in over 700 OECD cities with a qualitative cross-case analysis of Bogotá, Colombia and Copenhagen, Denmark to unpack how and when the C40 initiative influences climate action at the city level. Results show that there is no statistically significant relationship between C40 membership and CO2 emissions, indicating that cities in the C40 initiative may not have reduced CO2 emissions more than other OECD cities, after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics, weather, country characteristics, city fixed effects, time fixed effects, and city-specific annual time trends. Furthermore, the complementary qualitative analysis showed the C40 network's direct intervention is limited to increasing or maintaining the ambition of cities; the network was found to have limited influence on city-level policy planning and implementation. There is a need to further study and address local policy implementation for realizing net-zero in relation to TMN membership. ...
Climate change impacts the power system globally. It also creates a challenge for Indonesia's energy transition, which aims for net-zero emissions by 2060. Aside from decarbonization efforts, planning for this transition adds a challenge due to the deeply uncertain nature of climate change. This refers to a condition where planners cannot agree on models, probabilities, or even which variables to prioritize. That degree of climate uncertainty has not yet been addressed in Indonesia's current power systems planning approach. Failure to address these uncertainties could bring significant vulnerabilities to Indonesia's future power system. Furthermore, only a small number of studies on power systems planning in Indonesia have addressed these climate uncertainties, and even then, only in a limited way. This paper offers a conceptual recommendation of an adaptive planning approach as one potential method to address these uncertainties. The approach is based on Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP), which comes from the decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) taxonomy. It supports planners in exploring a range of possible futures, considering policies and uncertainties, and enabling more robust decision-making. ...

Computational text analysis of media narratives on smart metering in India

Book chapter (2024) - Nihit Goyal
Although novel policies will be especially important for addressing grand societal challenges, how the digital transition influences the ability of governments to adopt new policies remains unclear. In this study, the relationship between digitization and policy innovation is explored in order to understand how the two might be related. Specifically, media narratives are studied in the case of the ongoing rollout of smart metering in India to assess whether and how this instance of digital governance has been discussed in the news. To do so, 370 articles in the largest English language daily newspaper in India have been analyzed using topic modelling and sentiment analysis. Findings highlight the polysemic nature of smart metering and its ability to support highly (re-)configurable and targeted policy designs, as well as some resistance to this policy innovation thus far. Implications of the findings are discussed for theory and research on digital governance and policy innovation. ...
Journal article (2024) - John Brandt, N. Goyal, Matthew Moroney, Sophie Janaskie, Angel Hsu
Research on the economic burden of air pollution has focused primarily on its macroeconomic impact. However, as some studies have found that air pollution can lead to avoidance behavior–for example, reducing the time spent outdoors–we hypothesize that it can also influence consumer spending activity. We combine high frequency data on ozone and fine particulate pollution with daily consumer spending in brick-and-mortar retail in 129 postal codes in Spain during 2014 to estimate the association between the two. Using a linear fixed effects model, we find that a 1-standard deviation increase in ozone concentration (20.97 μg/m3) is associated with 3.9 percent decrease in consumer spending (95% CI: -0.066, -0.012; p<0.01). The association of fine particulate matter with consumer spending is, however, not statistically significant (β: 0.005; 95% CI: -0.009, 0.018; p>0.10). Further, we do not observe a sufficiently strong bounce-back in consumer spending in the day–or even the week–following higher ozone concentration. Also, we find that the relationship between ozone concentration and consumer spending is heterogeneous, with those aged below 25 and those aged 45 or above exhibiting stronger negative association. This research informs policymakers about a plausibly unaccounted cost of ambient air pollution, even at concentrations lower than the WHO air quality guideline for short-term exposure. ...

Combining natural language processing, causal mapping, and graph analytics for public policy

Journal article (2024) - Rory Hooper, Nihit Goyal, Kornelis Blok, Lisa Scholten
Although causal evidence synthesis is critical for the policy sciences—whether it be analysis for policy or analysis of policy—its repeatable, systematic, and transparent execution remains challenging due to the growing volume, variety, and velocity of policy-relevant evidence generation as well as the complex web of relationships within which policies are usually situated. To address these shortcomings, we develop a novel, semi-automated approach to synthesizing causal evidence from policy-relevant documents. Specifically, we propose the use of natural language processing (NLP) for the extraction of causal evidence and subsequent homogenization of the text; causal mapping for the collation, visualization, and summarization of complex interdependencies within the policy system; and graph analytics for further investigation of the structure and dynamics of the causal map. We illustrate this approach by applying it to a collection of 28 articles on the emissions trading scheme (ETS), a policy instrument of increasing importance for climate change mitigation. In all, we find 300 variables and 284 cause-effect pairs in our input dataset (consisting of 4524 sentences), which are reduced to 70 unique variables and 119 cause-effect pairs after homogenization. We create a causal map depicting these relationships and analyze it to demonstrate the perspectives and policy-relevant insights that can be obtained. We compare these with select manually conducted, previous meta-reviews of the policy instrument, and find them to be not only broadly consistent but also complementary. We conclude that, despite remaining limitations, this approach can help synthesize causal evidence for policy analysis, policy making, and policy research. ...
Journal article (2024) - Amanda Martinez-Reyes, Jenny Lieu, Nihit Goyal, Diana Mangalagiu, Thomas Hoppe
Understanding what conditions promote or hinder energy affordability in energy transitions is crucial for coal and carbon-intensive regions (CCIRs) dealing with the trade-off between phasing out fossil fuels and deepening social inequalities. While previous studies have included household and national-level conditions, this paper addresses the research gap covering regional-level conditions by drawing from regional energy governance, energy justice, and sociotechnical transition frameworks. A mixed-method approach consisting of a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis and case-study analysis is applied to 14 CCIRs in Europe, Asia, and North America. Results show that energy affordability in CCIRs is influenced by combinations of regional and (inter)national conditions. Whereas the existing literature and transition policies do not differentiate between the CCI sector's transition type, this paper highlights that conditions underlying energy (un)affordability differ when the CCI sector is phased out or has the option to transition. Based on the findings, this study calls for a multi-level governance approach to alleviating and preventing energy unaffordability and recommends that policy mixes like the EU Just Transition Fund consider the different types of CCIR transitions. ...

How does policy learning enable policy innovation?

Journal article (2024) - Nihit Goyal, Michael Howlett
Policy innovation is considered important for addressing major challenges such as climate change and the sustainable energy transition. Although policy learning is likely to play a key role in enabling policy innovation, the link between them remains unclear despite much research on both topics. To address this gap, we move beyond a binary treatment of policy innovation and differentiate policy problem innovation from policy instrument innovation and policy process innovation. Subsequently, we synthesise the literature on policy learning with the research on the multiple streams framework (MSF), a well-known lens for explaining policy innovation. Like earlier policy learning studies, we distinguish several types of learning by posing the key questions of learning, but in the context of each stream of the MSF: who learns (actors), what (beliefs), how (modes), and to what effect (ripening). This new conceptualisation clarifies the relationship of each type of policy learning to the varieties of policy innovation. Further, it indicates that policy learning is likely to result in policy innovation if and only if it influences the coupling among the three streams during a window of opportunity – through policy entrepreneurship – and not otherwise. We conclude with the implications of this study for future research on policy innovation, policy learning, and the MSF. ...

An Introduction from the Special Section Editors

Journal article (2024) - Nihit Goyal, Valérie Pattyn
This editorial marks the relaunch of the Policy Innovation section of this journal, responding to the urgent need for innovative public policy amid global challenges such as climate change, economic inequality, and technological disruption. It reflects on the journal’s pivotal contributions to the subject and underscores the importance of comparative analysis in driving policy innovation. The section invites submissions that push theoretical and methodological boundaries, expand research into underexplored geographies and domains, and tackle the implications of policy innovation for equity, fairness, and justice. By broadening the scope of policy innovation, the journal aims to inspire cutting-edge, rigorous, and actionable research. ...
Journal article (2023) - Namrata Chindarkar, Nihit Goyal
Electricity access is an important issue and building capacity for it requires drawing relevant lessons from past policies. In this study, we evaluate the effect of the Jyotigram Yojana, or the lighted village scheme, a supply-side policy intervention during 2003–08 to increase rural electricity access in Gujarat, India. We hypothesize that policy implementation is associated with increased electricity consumption. To test this hypothesis, we exploit variation in the timing of policy implementation at the village level, and use a generalized difference-in-differences strategy for identification. Further, we use night-time luminosity measured through remote sensing as a proxy for electricity consumption, and control for weather, village fixed effect, year fixed effect, and village or administrative block specific time trend. We find that while the overall effect of the policy on night-time luminosity was not statistically significant, the effects were likely heterogeneous, with the night-time luminosity increasing in some districts after policy implementation and decreasing in others. We conclude that the policy might have had a re-distributive effect on electricity access or consumption and recommend adopting a more holistic approach – incorporating both supply-side and demand-side measures – to increase electricity access. ...
Journal article (2023) - N. Goyal, Michael Howlett
Introduction: The target of universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services—key for individual, social, and economic well-being—is unlikely to be achieved by 2030 based on the current trend. Public policy will likely need to play a key role in accelerating progress in this regard. Although perspectives from the field of policy studies can support this effort, to what extent they have been employed in the literature on energy access remains unclear. Methods: This study analyzed nearly 7,500 publications on energy access through a combination of bibliometric review and computational text analysis of their titles and abstracts to examine whether and how they have engaged with public policy perspectives, specifically, policy process research, policy design studies, and the literature on policy evaluation. Results: We discovered 27 themes in the literature on energy access, but public policy was not among them. Subsequently, we identified 23 themes in a new analysis of the 1,751 publications in our original dataset, mentioning “policy” in their title or abstract. However, few of them engaged with public policy, and even those that did comprised a rather small share of the literature. Finally, we extracted phrases pertaining to public policy in this reduced dataset, but found limited mention of terms related to the policy process, policy design, or policy evaluation. Discussion: While to some extent this might reflect the multidisciplinary nature of the research on energy access, a manual review of the abstracts of select publications corroborated this finding. Also, it shed light on how the literature has engaged with public policy and helped identify opportunities for broadening and deepening policy relevant research on energy access. We conclude that, despite their relevance to energy access, public policy perspectives have infrequently and unevenly informed existing research on the topic, and call on scholars in both communities to address this gap in the future. ...