Dynamics of freight transport decarbonization
A simulation study for Brazil
Verônica Ghisolfi (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
Lóránt A. Tavasszy (TU Delft - Transport and Planning)
Gonçalo Homem Correia (TU Delft - Transport and Planning)
Gisele de Lorena Diniz Chaves (Federal University of Santa Catarina)
Glaydston Mattos Ribeiro (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro)
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Abstract
Freight transport decarbonization is challenging due to the slow implementation of policies to meet climate goals. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the implementation of freight decarbonization measures. A System Dynamics model was developed and applied to the Brazilian freight system to simulate the use of more sustainable modes and means of transport, including electrification, increased use of biofuels, acceleration of fleet renewal, and modal shift. Significant emission reductions are found in the scenarios combining a shift to alternative modes and a rapid phase-out of diesel vehicles. Even so, the Brazilian freight sector's emission budgets towards limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C will be depleted during the current and next decade, respectively. An absolute reduction of carbon emissions before 2050 seems unlikely. Besides confirming the need to study the dynamics of the freight system, the findings corroborate the urgency for stronger actions on freight decarbonization.