Understanding the vulnerability of traffic networks by means of structured expert judgment elicitation
Maria Nogal Macho (Trinity College Dublin)
O. Morales-Nápoles (TU Delft - Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Alan O' Connor (Trinity College Dublin)
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Abstract
There is a lack of consensus in relation to the operationality of important concepts and descriptors of traffic networks such as resilience and vulnerability. With the aim of determining a framework with mathematical sound to objectively define and delimit these concepts, the expert judgment uncertainty quantification has been selected to assess the vulnerability of a traffic network when non-disruptive events have been previously identified.
Moreover, the expert judgment for dependence modelling is used to establish to what extent common indicators of the traffic network performance, such as accessibility and reliability, explain the vulnerability. Although applied to the case of the metric vulnerability, the methodology arises as an effective tool to explain many other traffic indicators such as resilience, robustness, effectiveness and serviceability.