Regime actors' role in the transition of carbon dioxide removal technologies in Brazil

Abstract

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technologies are increasingly becoming a part of climate change mitigation strategies. Considering the Paris Agreement and the goal of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial level, CDR can be a helpful complement to emissions reductions, especially during the transition toward net-zero. Nevertheless, CDRs are novel technologies, with few applications and significant uncertainties. Integrating novel technologies into established systems is not a purely technical challenge, but one shaped by socio-technical and political-institutional dynamics. In this context, the Brazilian sugarcane and ethanol (sugar-energy) sector is powerful and influential, raising critical questions about its role in enabling or constraining technological change.
In this thesis, three CDR technologies are studied, namely Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), Biochar Carbon Removal (BCR), and Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW). These technologies have the potential to be integrated into existing agricultural and energy systems, such as sugarcane plantations and ethanol production chains. The research aims to investigate how CDR technologies are developing and diffusing in Brazil’s sugar-energy sector, focusing on the interactions between niche innovations (CDR technologies), the established regime (sugar-energy sector), and broader landscape pressures (long-term, exogenous pressures). The study is guided by the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) framework, which provides a structured framework for analyzing technological transitions in socio-technical systems through a socio-political and technological perspective.
Using a qualitative methodology, the thesis addresses the question: “What role do sugar-energy incumbents play in shaping the diffusion of BECCS, BCR, and ERW in Brazil’s low-carbon transition?” The analysis is based on the MLP framework and on seven semi-structured interviews with industry actors and niche innovators. The findings suggest that CDR development benefits from rising climate concern and emerging policy initiatives in Brazil, but its diffusion is constrained by limited incumbent interest, insufficient economic incentives, and regulatory uncertainty. Incumbent firms can play a crucial role in enabling technological diffusion by providing legitimacy, resources, and access to infrastructure; however, this support tends to materialize only when CDR technologies align with existing regime structures and complement current production processes. As a result, Incumbent firms tend to reinforce gradual transition dynamics rather than transformative change.
The thesis concludes that CDR diffusion in Brazil's sugar-energy sector requires explicit policy recognition, dedicated financial instruments, and deeper integration of CDR technologies by large sugarcane and ethanol incumbents, beyond experimenting and early commercial scale. By examining the socio-technical and political-institutional dimensions of CDR diffusion, this research contributes to deeper debates on negative emissions, sustainable innovations transitions, and climate governance in Brazil.