The Future of Nickel in a Transitioning World

Abstract

Acceleration of the energy transition requires increased mining of materials. An important material for the energy transition is nickel, used in the stainless steel required for all energy infrastructure and an important component for both stationary batteries and batteries used in electric vehicles. Previous research has been done on the global nickel requirements for the energy transition at a high level of aggregation. In this thesis, exploratory system dynamics modelling and analysis was used to assess the resilience of the nickel supply chain and its nexus with the energy system at the level of individual mines. The development of the global nickel supply chain, and its energy requirements and greenhouse gas emissions, was modelled and explored between 2015 and 2060 under different disruption scenarios, sustainability policies and uncertainties. A nickel demand of 6 - 18 million tonnes per year is projected by 2060 for the BAU scenario, with projections up to 38 million tonnes per year in the scenarios that aim to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 °C. The main contributors to this large demand are electric vehicle batteries. The nickel system is conditionally resilient to the energy transition, given sufficient exploration and annual capacity increase. To increase the resilience of the nickel system, policies that support innovation in battery material composition and lifetime and good end of life waste management of batteries can play an important role. Modelling the nickel supply chain at mine level leads to different behaviour compared to previous research where mines were aggregated. Insights obtained from the detailed modelling in this thesis include a higher demand than previously projected; the possibility of the average ore grade increasing over time as mines with lower ore grades are decommissioned; average final energy requirements that can decrease, increase or increase rapidly depending on a varying average ore grade, a varying composition of processing methods and a varying composition of by-products; average energy costs that differ depending on the projected electricity mix in the countries containing deposits; and a reduction in end of life nickel recycling rate for most scenarios due to an increasing share of batteries. The most important contribution of this thesis is not in the data and assumptions, but in the model itself, which can be adapted and refined in further research, where more stakeholder input is included, to make the outcomes more robust and useful for decision making. Other important avenues for further research include determining how much exploration is possible and how quickly mining capacity can be increased.