Where will they settle?
On the role of uncertainty and choice of algorithm for humanitarian decisions
M. Comes (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
Meyke Nering Bögel (Systemiq)
M.E. Warnier (TU Delft - Multi Actor Systems)
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Abstract
Migration is among the most uncertain and contested topics for policymaking. The increasing number of migrants and refugees globally necessitates effective planning and management, particularly in addressing infrastructure needs such as access to healthcare. While efforts to accom- modate a surge of refugees prioritise primary needs, improving structural access to essential infrastructure becomes imperative over time. However, the path-dependent nature of the expansion of refugee settlements poses challenges for infrastructure development. Existing facility location models for infrastructure planning overlook the interplay of infrastructure growth and human behaviour. This chapter presents a study on the interplay between the settling preferences of refugees (behaviour) and the location of healthcare facilities as essential infrastructure. We develop a data-based approach that combines an agent-based model representing decision beha- viour with facility location optimisation models for infrastructure planning. Through a case study of Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, home to over 1 million Rohingya refugees, we demonstrate the implications of different optimisa- tion approaches and thereby explore how and in how far digital tools influence policymaking on one of the most contested and uncertain topics in the current policy landscape. Our findings underscore the importance of integrating uncertainty about human behaviour in infrastructure decisions.
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