Designing an agent-based model to help determine what urban heat island mitigation solutions can best be implemented in existing urban areas

Abstract

The Urban Heat Island effect increases the air temperature in cities compared to rural areas because cities have a lot more hardened surfaces than rural areas. As the amount of people living in cities increases and the global air temperatures rise, these negative effects will increase and mitigation action has to be taken. This research investigates how technical, household and institutional characteristics influence the adoption of Urban Heat Island mitigation solutions in existing neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. Through a desk study, expert interviews and agent-based model the effect of these characteristic on the adoption of green roofs, green façades, green gardens and cool roofs by households is researched. The results show that several characteristics found in literature do not have a significant effect on the fraction of adopted solutions and that there is no significant difference between the four investigated Local Climate Zones. It is concluded that only the energy reduction effect of a solution has a significant influence, that households with a higher income and households that own their dwelling adopt more mitigation solutions, that households in owners’ association adopt less solutions and that introducing or increasing the subsidy for green roofs or cool roofs increases the adoption of these solutions but not the average air temperature. Furthermore, the results show that households will mostly adopt green roofs. The outcomes of this research can be used by policy makers to differentiate policies between neighbourhoods and the model itself can be adapted to use it for other cities or neighbourhoods.