Enhancing Capacity in Air Traffic Management: An Analysis of Traffic Complexity and Future Growth Projections

Abstract

This thesis investigates future air traffic growth projections for an en-route environment and its impact on airspace complexity. The study compares Free Route Airspace, FRA, with the traditional ATS Routes Network, assessing airspace efficiency through various complexity metrics, including flight interactions, air traffic controller workload, and traffic patterns. These complexity metrics present the dependent variables of the study. The research builds a simulation model where the independent variables are the size of airspace, the type of demand, and the operational environment. With help of BlueSky ATM Simulator, the simulation model shows how independent variables can affect the complexity metrics. Additionally to this, the study evaluates the environmental impact by measuring CO2 emissions, which are found to be significantly lower under the FRA due to more direct routing. Also, the findings of this research suggest that FRA offers more efficient traffic distribution, particularly in larger airspace areas. In smaller airspace areas, the controller workload increases due to less predictable flight paths and the more flight interactions under Free Route airspace environment. The study concludes that FRA is advantageous for larger airspace areas, enhancing efficiency and sustainability, but it also introduces challenges in managing air traffic, particularly in smaller or highly concentrated airspace environments.