Error Bounds For Gaussian Process Regression Under Bounded Support Noise With Applications To Safety Certification

Conference Paper (2025)
Author(s)

Robert Reed (University of Colorado Boulder)

L. Laurenti (TU Delft - Team Luca Laurenti)

Morteza Lahijanian (University of Colorado Boulder)

Research Group
Team Luca Laurenti
DOI related publication
https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v39i19.34220
More Info
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Publication Year
2025
Language
English
Research Group
Team Luca Laurenti
Bibliographical Note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.@en
Pages (from-to)
20157-20164
ISBN (electronic)
978-1-57735-897-8
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Abstract

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is a powerful and elegant method for learning complex functions from noisy data with a wide range of applications, including in safety-critical domains. Such applications have two key features: (i) they require rigorous error quantification, and (ii) the noise is often bounded and non-Gaussian due to, e.g., physical constraints. While error bounds for applying GPR in the presence of non-Gaussian noise exist, they tend to be overly restrictive and conservative in practice. In this paper, we provide novel error bounds for GPR under bounded support noise. Specifically, by relying on concentration inequalities and assuming that the latent function has low complexity in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) corresponding to the GP kernel, we derive both probabilistic and deterministic bounds on the error of the GPR. We show that these errors are substantially tighter than existing state-of-the-art bounds and are particularly well-suited for GPR with neural network kernels, i.e., Deep Kernel Learning (DKL). Furthermore, motivated by applications in safety-critical domains, we illustrate how these bounds can be combined with stochastic barrier functions to successfully quantify the safety probability of an unknown dynamical system from finite data. We validate the efficacy of our approach through several benchmarks and comparisons against existing bounds. The results show that our bounds are consistently smaller, and that DKLs can produce error bounds tighter than sample noise, significantly improving the safety probability of control systems.

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