Assessing societal tolerance for increased closures of the Eastern Scheldt Barrier
J.J.B. Buysschaert (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
M. Nogal Macho – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Dr. ir. Johan Ninan – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
O. Kammouh – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
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Abstract
Storm surge barriers, a critical component of the Dutch Delta Works, faces growing operational challenges due to climate-induced sea-level rise and increased storm intensity. These developments are expected to lead to significantly more frequent closures, creating not only ecological and economic strain, but also maintenance and societal tensions. While the technical and environmental consequences of these closures are well documented, the question of societal tolerance remains under-explored. This research addresses that gap by investigating how societal tolerance can be assessed and integrated into the governance of storm surge barriers, using the Eastern Scheldt as a case study. The Social Licence to Operate (SLO) framework, originally developed in the extractive industries, is adapted to conceptualise public acceptance as a dynamic, multi-level condition. Key drivers of societal tolerance, including trust, risk perception, ecological dependency, and communication, were identified through academic literature and 15 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from aquaculture, recreation, governmental, and environmental organisations. Findings reveal that stakeholder tolerance is highly sector-specific and shaped by governance strategies. Aquaculture actors express low tolerance, bordering on withdrawal, while environmental NGOs offer conditional acceptance based on ecological commitments. A conceptual framework is developed around four boundary conditions:knowledge, legitimacy, credibility, and trust, each linked to stakeholder positioning and actionable policy levers. The study offers both a theoretical extension of the SLO-framework and practical guidance for infrastructure governance. Recommendations include implementing a tolerance monitoring dashboard, embedding ecological thresholds into operational planning, and fostering long-term participatory engagement. Ultimately, the research promotes a shift from reactive to anticipatory governance, positioning societal tolerance as a critical parameter in sustainable asset management.