Day-Ahead Capacity Limitation for Distribution Grid Relief: Plant Level Modelling and Evidence from a Dutch WWTP

Abstract

The Netherlands faces strong congestion on the distribution grid, which makes it a good setting to study practical congestion management for medium voltage users. This thesis examines contract based capacity limitation with day ahead notice, and develops a plant level optimisation framework for a real wastewater treatment plant. The model represents the site’s energy assets, gas plant, a biogas tank, photovoltaic generation and, later on, the addition of a battery. It also includes real Dutch tariffs, metering and verification rules, and the contract logic. The method uses two variants built on the same core. A perfect foresight set up provides clear upper bound benchmarks and supports design screening. A rolling horizon set up mirrors day ahead operation with forecast error. Experiments focus on a demanding stress week with Monte Carlo call schedules, and include sensitivity tests on prices, demand and tariffs. We evaluate feasibility, operational cost, and the compensation needed to cover the additional costs of participating in the program.
Results showthat reliable delivery under contract based capacity limitation is possible with out changing core processes, by coordinating on site energy assets and, where appropriate, adding a modest battery sized to the typical call profile. Under imperfect information, fea sibility depends mainly on the asset state at the start of a call and on forecast quality. We see that simple operating rules help manage this risk. The economic analysis indicates that asset based flexibility can be delivered at activation prices lower than those linked to production shifting or shedding, as long as compensation covers the extra costs of delivery and account for the bill savings the site might get.
The contributions are a transparent framework that follows Dutch market practices, facil ity scale evidence on feasibility and economics for a medium voltage wastewater treatment plant, and practical guidance for programme design and site operations. The reasoning ex tends to other process driven utilities and it points to a scalable path for distribution system operators to procure dependable congestion relief at a competitive cost.