Starters: steeds verder van huis ?

Abstract

The shortage of housing stock in The Netherlands is one of the major societal issues at present. It is predominantly the people who want to enter the housing market for the first time, the so-called ‘starters’, who face severe problems due to a lack of stock and suitable dwellings. This problem is manifest in the rental as well as in the owner-occupied housing sector. The sole focus of government policies is on housing for the lower social class and the rest of the housing market is dominated by the private sector. Objective – This research aims to define the position of starters on the Dutch housing market in comparison with the position of starters in the context of 1993. The research question that is answered is: ‘To what extent do the factors societal context, housing policy and housing stock influence the opportunities for starters on the housing market in 2018 compared to 1993?’. This question is answered on the basis of the housing choice model. This model is based on the career / life cycle theory of Priemus (1984). In the housing choice model, an extension has been made based on the theory of Dieleman (2001) which takes the external factors that determine the choice of a home into account. Methods – The research is conducted by a literature study and a quantitative analysis. The quantitative analysis has been done on data generated from an extensive quasi longitudinal study. Specifically, the data of 1993 and 2018 were compared to each other. Results – The literature study and the quantitative analysis show that the starter on the Dutch housing market has a good social position in terms of income, education and employment. However, as housing policies failed to respond to the changed social context ultimately resulting in too few houses being built, the position of the starter has deteriorated. This deteriation position is confirmed by the data analysis, which indicates that starters conform to the market situation. Firstly, it is apparent that significantly fewer starters than in the past are entering the housing market. Secondly, starters are entering the market at a much older age than their predecessors. Finally, it is clear that starters in every age category are more likely to choose to live in multi-person households to increase their payment capacity. Conclusions – The final conclusion of this study is that the opportunities for the starter on the housing market in 2018 are mainly determined by the housing stock. However, the relative scarcity of housing stock for the starter is chiefly the result of housing policies which have not responded to societal changes. This implies that housing policy is ultimately the decisive factor in the disadvantageous position of the starter. The average starter has a good starting position from a social perspective due to low unemployment, very low interest rates and good prospects for social growth. However, the starter has minimal chances of entering the housing market due to, in particular, insufficient suitable housing stock. This applies to both the free rental sector and the owner-occupied sector and homes are hardly financially accessible for starters. This good starting position has mainly been confined to the lower rental and owner-occupied sector on the housing market in 2018. This means that starters are more likely to opt for a home in a relatively expensive segment or postpone the choice for a home.