Secondary cities as an optimal place to settle down in China? The role of housing, employment and amenities in recent migrants' leaving intention across the urban hierarchy

Abstract

Urbanization trends in China reveal a shift in migration patterns, with an increasing number of recent migrants leaving primate cities while secondary cities emerge as attractive destinations. Given China's aging population and intensifying intercity competition for migrants, understanding the factors associated with recent migrants' intentions to leave cities at various levels becomes increasingly important. While spatial equilibrium theory implies that migrants' leaving intentions are shaped by the balance of housing, employment, and amenities, these factors vary hierarchically across city levels. This study examines how these factors differentially shape recent migrants' leaving intentions across primate, secondary, and small cities. Through binary logistic regression of national survey data, we find that recent migrants in secondary cities exhibit lower leaving intentions compared to those in primate and small cities. Further interaction analyses reveal distinct patterns: in primate cities, medium-income migrants are most likely to consider leaving; in secondary cities, rental housing status and hometown residential land ownership more strongly increase leaving intentions compared to primate cities, while medical resource accessibility more significantly reduces leaving intentions compared to small cities. Drawing on spatial equilibrium theory, our analysis suggests that secondary cities appear to achieve an optimal balance: their greater homeownership opportunities serve as a compensatory factor for their lower incomes compared to primate cities, while their superior medical amenity accessibility compensates for their higher housing costs compared to small cities. This paper contributes theoretically by bridging factors in spatial equilibrium theory with the urban hierarchy dynamics proposed by differential urbanization theory. It also offers practical insights for tailoring migration retention policies across city levels and adapting to the transformation of urbanization stages.