P.J. Boelhouwer
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91 records found
1
Journal article
(2026)
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Jun Wen, Sylvia J.T. Jansen, Harry van der Heijden, Bo Li, Peter J. Boelhouwer
Urbanization trends in China reveal a shift in migration patterns, with an increasing number of recent migrants leaving primate cities while secondary cities emerge as attractive destinations. Given China's aging population and intensifying intercity competition for migrants, understanding the factors associated with recent migrants' intentions to leave cities at various levels becomes increasingly important. While spatial equilibrium theory implies that migrants' leaving intentions are shaped by the balance of housing, employment, and amenities, these factors vary hierarchically across city levels. This study examines how these factors differentially shape recent migrants' leaving intentions across primate, secondary, and small cities. Through binary logistic regression of national survey data, we find that recent migrants in secondary cities exhibit lower leaving intentions compared to those in primate and small cities. Further interaction analyses reveal distinct patterns: in primate cities, medium-income migrants are most likely to consider leaving; in secondary cities, rental housing status and hometown residential land ownership more strongly increase leaving intentions compared to primate cities, while medical resource accessibility more significantly reduces leaving intentions compared to small cities. Drawing on spatial equilibrium theory, our analysis suggests that secondary cities appear to achieve an optimal balance: their greater homeownership opportunities serve as a compensatory factor for their lower incomes compared to primate cities, while their superior medical amenity accessibility compensates for their higher housing costs compared to small cities. This paper contributes theoretically by bridging factors in spatial equilibrium theory with the urban hierarchy dynamics proposed by differential urbanization theory. It also offers practical insights for tailoring migration retention policies across city levels and adapting to the transformation of urbanization stages.
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Urbanization trends in China reveal a shift in migration patterns, with an increasing number of recent migrants leaving primate cities while secondary cities emerge as attractive destinations. Given China's aging population and intensifying intercity competition for migrants, understanding the factors associated with recent migrants' intentions to leave cities at various levels becomes increasingly important. While spatial equilibrium theory implies that migrants' leaving intentions are shaped by the balance of housing, employment, and amenities, these factors vary hierarchically across city levels. This study examines how these factors differentially shape recent migrants' leaving intentions across primate, secondary, and small cities. Through binary logistic regression of national survey data, we find that recent migrants in secondary cities exhibit lower leaving intentions compared to those in primate and small cities. Further interaction analyses reveal distinct patterns: in primate cities, medium-income migrants are most likely to consider leaving; in secondary cities, rental housing status and hometown residential land ownership more strongly increase leaving intentions compared to primate cities, while medical resource accessibility more significantly reduces leaving intentions compared to small cities. Drawing on spatial equilibrium theory, our analysis suggests that secondary cities appear to achieve an optimal balance: their greater homeownership opportunities serve as a compensatory factor for their lower incomes compared to primate cities, while their superior medical amenity accessibility compensates for their higher housing costs compared to small cities. This paper contributes theoretically by bridging factors in spatial equilibrium theory with the urban hierarchy dynamics proposed by differential urbanization theory. It also offers practical insights for tailoring migration retention policies across city levels and adapting to the transformation of urbanization stages.
Migration across the urban hierarchy
Has China’s urbanisation transitioned from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage?
The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanisation transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanisation China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanisation and migrant selectivity, and analyses city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. The findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanisation by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanisation stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanisation processes.
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The population density in megacities in China gives rise to challenges, such as traffic congestion and soaring housing prices. A trend of leaving primate cities can be observed as well as a population increase in secondary cities. These trends might point to an urbanisation transition from the primate city stage to the secondary city stage. Research is needed to determine at which stage of urbanisation China currently resides, and who are migrating across the different levels of cities in this stage. In order to answer these questions, the current study combines the theory of differential urbanisation and migrant selectivity, and analyses city-level migration patterns and demographic characteristics of migrants across the urban hierarchy. The findings indicate that China is currently in the intermediate primate city stage, where the upward migration across the urban hierarchy is driven by younger adults with higher education and income, and a lower likelihood of marriage or parenthood. Building upon global evidence, this research further extends the theory of differential urbanisation by incorporating migrant selectivity into the interpretation of urbanisation stages. It reveals that educated migrants tend to concentrate and move up the urban hierarchy in the primate city stage but might deconcentrate during the secondary and small city stages. This study offers practical insights for policymakers at the national and city levels to develop population growth plans, adjust targeted migration policies and respond to future urbanisation processes.
In de verkiezingsprogramma’s van onder andere D66, GroenLinks-PvdA, Volt, CDA en de ChristenUnie staat het voorstel om de hypotheekrenteaftrek geleidelijk af te schaffen. Tegenstanders waarschuwen dat het verdwijnen van dit fiscale voordeel de woningwaarde aantast en woonlasten verhoogt. Maar is deze bezorgdheid wel gegrond?
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In de verkiezingsprogramma’s van onder andere D66, GroenLinks-PvdA, Volt, CDA en de ChristenUnie staat het voorstel om de hypotheekrenteaftrek geleidelijk af te schaffen. Tegenstanders waarschuwen dat het verdwijnen van dit fiscale voordeel de woningwaarde aantast en woonlasten verhoogt. Maar is deze bezorgdheid wel gegrond?
Journal article
(2025)
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Chi Jin, Bo Li, Sylvia J.T. Jansen, Harry J.F.M. Boumeester, Peter J. Boelhouwer
Young talents are vital drivers of urban social and economic development. However, unaffordable homeownership in China’s first-tier cities increasingly marginalizes this vital demographic. Understanding young talents’ home-buying intentions and their determinants is therefore imperative for policies aimed at attracting and retaining them. While several studies have examined housing purchase determinants, few have considered behavioural psychological factors. This paper employs the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to investigate specific beliefs and background factors influencing young talents’ home-buying intentions. Analysing 1065 questionnaires from young talents across four Chinese first-tier cities using structural equation modelling (SEM), we found that multiple beliefs and background factors significantly impact buying intentions. Behavioural beliefs prove pivotal: young talents perceive homeownership as investment opportunity, source of belonging, and means to secure children’s education. Normative beliefs are influential, with individuals valuing opinions from current homeowners, family members, and partners. Control beliefs—encompassing financial constraints regarding down payments and mortgages, family support access, and settlement decisions—also significantly influence home-buying intentions. Additionally, background factors including gender, occupation, and current tenure shape various beliefs and attitudes, subsequently affecting purchase intentions. This study advances tenure choice literature by employing TPB to examine specific beliefs and socio-demographic influences. In the context of China’s sluggish real estate market, these findings offer policymakers practical guidance for stimulating housing demand by targeting the specific psychological drivers of young talents, complementing conventional economic instruments.
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Young talents are vital drivers of urban social and economic development. However, unaffordable homeownership in China’s first-tier cities increasingly marginalizes this vital demographic. Understanding young talents’ home-buying intentions and their determinants is therefore imperative for policies aimed at attracting and retaining them. While several studies have examined housing purchase determinants, few have considered behavioural psychological factors. This paper employs the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to investigate specific beliefs and background factors influencing young talents’ home-buying intentions. Analysing 1065 questionnaires from young talents across four Chinese first-tier cities using structural equation modelling (SEM), we found that multiple beliefs and background factors significantly impact buying intentions. Behavioural beliefs prove pivotal: young talents perceive homeownership as investment opportunity, source of belonging, and means to secure children’s education. Normative beliefs are influential, with individuals valuing opinions from current homeowners, family members, and partners. Control beliefs—encompassing financial constraints regarding down payments and mortgages, family support access, and settlement decisions—also significantly influence home-buying intentions. Additionally, background factors including gender, occupation, and current tenure shape various beliefs and attitudes, subsequently affecting purchase intentions. This study advances tenure choice literature by employing TPB to examine specific beliefs and socio-demographic influences. In the context of China’s sluggish real estate market, these findings offer policymakers practical guidance for stimulating housing demand by targeting the specific psychological drivers of young talents, complementing conventional economic instruments.
Young Talents' Settlement Decisions in China's Metropolises
An Integrated Prospect Theory Framework
Journal article
(2025)
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Chi Jin, Bo Li, Sylvia J.T. Jansen, Harry J.F.M. Boumeester, Peter J. Boelhouwer
Global metropolises, including first-tier Chinese cities, are confronting unprecedented challenges of talent exodus amid escalating housing costs, competitive job markets and deteriorating urban living conditions. Traditional migration theories fall short in explaining young talents' mobility decisions, as their high human capital drives them to prioritize multidimensional considerations beyond mere economic returns. This study develops a comprehensive theoretical framework integrating multiple aspects of prospect theory—reference dependence, loss aversion, endowment effects and risk attitudes—to investigate young talents' settlement intentions through logistic regression analysis of survey data from 1065 professionals across Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The research reveals that migration decisions are fundamentally shaped by asymmetric psychological evaluations: young talents demonstrate heightened sensitivity to potential losses in job prospects and housing affordability. Institutional and psychological endowments significantly enhance settlement intentions: homeownership, local hukou status and public sector employment increase staying probability, along with longer duration of residence and stronger place attachment. Notably, our findings reveal nuanced suppression effects of migration-specific risk attitude on one's general risk attitude: while first-tier cities attract individuals with higher general risk tolerance who are willing to embrace urban challenges, these individuals also tend to have higher migration-specific risk tolerance, which in turn reduces their long-term settlement intention. These insights not only advance behavioural economic understanding of talent mobility in urban areas, but also provide practical guidance for metropolitan governance. Our findings suggest that effective urban talent retention requires cities to strengthen institutional ties and guarantee stable career development rather than relying primarily on economic incentives. This approach ensures cities maintain the human capital essential for innovation and competitiveness in an era of increasing inter-urban competition.
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Global metropolises, including first-tier Chinese cities, are confronting unprecedented challenges of talent exodus amid escalating housing costs, competitive job markets and deteriorating urban living conditions. Traditional migration theories fall short in explaining young talents' mobility decisions, as their high human capital drives them to prioritize multidimensional considerations beyond mere economic returns. This study develops a comprehensive theoretical framework integrating multiple aspects of prospect theory—reference dependence, loss aversion, endowment effects and risk attitudes—to investigate young talents' settlement intentions through logistic regression analysis of survey data from 1065 professionals across Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. The research reveals that migration decisions are fundamentally shaped by asymmetric psychological evaluations: young talents demonstrate heightened sensitivity to potential losses in job prospects and housing affordability. Institutional and psychological endowments significantly enhance settlement intentions: homeownership, local hukou status and public sector employment increase staying probability, along with longer duration of residence and stronger place attachment. Notably, our findings reveal nuanced suppression effects of migration-specific risk attitude on one's general risk attitude: while first-tier cities attract individuals with higher general risk tolerance who are willing to embrace urban challenges, these individuals also tend to have higher migration-specific risk tolerance, which in turn reduces their long-term settlement intention. These insights not only advance behavioural economic understanding of talent mobility in urban areas, but also provide practical guidance for metropolitan governance. Our findings suggest that effective urban talent retention requires cities to strengthen institutional ties and guarantee stable career development rather than relying primarily on economic incentives. This approach ensures cities maintain the human capital essential for innovation and competitiveness in an era of increasing inter-urban competition.
In het regeerprogramma van het kabinet-Schoof worden bestaanszekerheid en wonen als topprioriteit van het kabinet bestempeld. Ik kan mij in de afgelopen decennia geen ander regeerprogramma herinneren dat meer woorden gebruikte (maar liefst tien bladzijden!) om het woonvraagstuk te beschrijven. [...]
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In het regeerprogramma van het kabinet-Schoof worden bestaanszekerheid en wonen als topprioriteit van het kabinet bestempeld. Ik kan mij in de afgelopen decennia geen ander regeerprogramma herinneren dat meer woorden gebruikte (maar liefst tien bladzijden!) om het woonvraagstuk te beschrijven. [...]
Dynamics in the Dutch private rented sector
How will landlords act?
Conference paper
(2024)
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M.E.A. Haffner, J.S.C.M. Hoekstra, P.J. Boelhouwer, S.J. Biervliet, J.L. Duurland
While governments have been promoting private renting in recent decades to increase housing supply, they have not necessarily facilitated this. The Netherlands is a case in point, as rent price control has been reduced in this century with the aim to give more leeway to private rental investment. Private renting achieved a turn-around in market share from 10 per cent of dwellings in 2009 to more than 13 per cent in 2023. Most of this growth can be attributed to the rental segment where rents were not controlled: it increased to about 50% of rental dwellings in 2021. Recently increasing housing shortages followed by societal unrest and elections caused the Dutch government to formulate new plans. Not only was the building of 1 million housing units programmed and stimulated, also plans to (temporarily) re-control rents of a large part of the de-controlled rental segment were formulated. Tax measures reducing the attractiveness of investment in private renting have been taken recently as well because of diverse reasons (protecting tenants; court decision on taxing wealth). To study these effects on private renting investments, this study aims to analyze the effects of these changes on the investment behavior of landlords in the Netherlands, in a context of rising inflation. The two studies in this contribution show that new supply will most likely lose out.
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While governments have been promoting private renting in recent decades to increase housing supply, they have not necessarily facilitated this. The Netherlands is a case in point, as rent price control has been reduced in this century with the aim to give more leeway to private rental investment. Private renting achieved a turn-around in market share from 10 per cent of dwellings in 2009 to more than 13 per cent in 2023. Most of this growth can be attributed to the rental segment where rents were not controlled: it increased to about 50% of rental dwellings in 2021. Recently increasing housing shortages followed by societal unrest and elections caused the Dutch government to formulate new plans. Not only was the building of 1 million housing units programmed and stimulated, also plans to (temporarily) re-control rents of a large part of the de-controlled rental segment were formulated. Tax measures reducing the attractiveness of investment in private renting have been taken recently as well because of diverse reasons (protecting tenants; court decision on taxing wealth). To study these effects on private renting investments, this study aims to analyze the effects of these changes on the investment behavior of landlords in the Netherlands, in a context of rising inflation. The two studies in this contribution show that new supply will most likely lose out.
Woningcorporaties zullen de komende tien jaar het gat gaan vullen dat nu ontstaat door verkoop van particuliere huurwoningen. Dat vraagt om een goede nieuwbouwstrategie en samenwerking tussen betrokken partijen, stelt hoogleraar Peter Boelhouwer in een interview met Platform31. Boelhouwer brengt zijn expertise in bij de nieuwe Leerkring sociale en betaalbare woningbouw voor corporaties en gemeenten, die deelnemers inhoudelijke en praktische inzichten biedt.
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Woningcorporaties zullen de komende tien jaar het gat gaan vullen dat nu ontstaat door verkoop van particuliere huurwoningen. Dat vraagt om een goede nieuwbouwstrategie en samenwerking tussen betrokken partijen, stelt hoogleraar Peter Boelhouwer in een interview met Platform31. Boelhouwer brengt zijn expertise in bij de nieuwe Leerkring sociale en betaalbare woningbouw voor corporaties en gemeenten, die deelnemers inhoudelijke en praktische inzichten biedt.
Forecasting House Prices through Credit Conditions
A Bayesian Approach
As housing development and housing market policies involve many long-term decisions, improving house price predictions could benefit the functioning of the housing market. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate how house price predictions can be improved. In particular, the merits of Bayesian estimation techniques in enhancing house price predictions are examined in this study. We compare the pseudo out-of-sample forecasting power of three Bayesian models—a Bayesian vector autoregression in levels (BVAR-l), a Bayesian vector autoregression in differences (BVAR-d), and a Bayesian vector error correction model (BVECM)—and their non-Bayesian counterparts. These techniques are compared using a theoretical model that predicts the borrowing capacity of credit-constrained and unconstrained households to affect house prices. The findings indicate that the Bayesian models outperform their non-Bayesian counterparts, and within the class of Bayesian models, the BVAR-d is found to be more accurate than the BVAR-l. For the two winning Bayesian models, i.e., the BVECM and the BVAR-d, the difference in forecasting power is more ambiguous; which model prevails depends on the desired forecasting horizon and the state of the economy. Hence, both Bayesian models may be considered when conducting research on house prices.
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As housing development and housing market policies involve many long-term decisions, improving house price predictions could benefit the functioning of the housing market. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate how house price predictions can be improved. In particular, the merits of Bayesian estimation techniques in enhancing house price predictions are examined in this study. We compare the pseudo out-of-sample forecasting power of three Bayesian models—a Bayesian vector autoregression in levels (BVAR-l), a Bayesian vector autoregression in differences (BVAR-d), and a Bayesian vector error correction model (BVECM)—and their non-Bayesian counterparts. These techniques are compared using a theoretical model that predicts the borrowing capacity of credit-constrained and unconstrained households to affect house prices. The findings indicate that the Bayesian models outperform their non-Bayesian counterparts, and within the class of Bayesian models, the BVAR-d is found to be more accurate than the BVAR-l. For the two winning Bayesian models, i.e., the BVECM and the BVAR-d, the difference in forecasting power is more ambiguous; which model prevails depends on the desired forecasting horizon and the state of the economy. Hence, both Bayesian models may be considered when conducting research on house prices.
Promoting the private rented sector in metropolitan China
Key challenges and solutions
Journal article
(2024)
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Bo Li, Harry van der Heijden, Sylvia J.T. Jansen, Juan Yan, Peter Boelhouwer
The private rented sector (PRS) plays an increasingly important role in accommodating young people and migrants in China’s metropolitan cities. However, the PRS in China is still underdeveloped, as evidenced by, e.g. a low degree of professionalisation, lack of basic rental laws and regulations, and poor housing experiences of tenants. The purpose of the current article is to identify the main challenges towards a well-functioning PRS, as perceived by Chinese local governments, landlords, and tenants, and to propose possible solutions to cope with these challenges. After reviewing both academic and grey literature and exploring the results of our previous research, we found that these challenges result from three main root causes, i.e. power imbalance between landlords and tenants, inadequate institutional arrangements, and path dependence on the past productivism model. Based on the analysis, a number of recommendations were proposed, including formalising the PRS, introducing regulations, setting minimum housing standards, and increasing public school availability to enhance equal citizenship rights between renters and homeowners.
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The private rented sector (PRS) plays an increasingly important role in accommodating young people and migrants in China’s metropolitan cities. However, the PRS in China is still underdeveloped, as evidenced by, e.g. a low degree of professionalisation, lack of basic rental laws and regulations, and poor housing experiences of tenants. The purpose of the current article is to identify the main challenges towards a well-functioning PRS, as perceived by Chinese local governments, landlords, and tenants, and to propose possible solutions to cope with these challenges. After reviewing both academic and grey literature and exploring the results of our previous research, we found that these challenges result from three main root causes, i.e. power imbalance between landlords and tenants, inadequate institutional arrangements, and path dependence on the past productivism model. Based on the analysis, a number of recommendations were proposed, including formalising the PRS, introducing regulations, setting minimum housing standards, and increasing public school availability to enhance equal citizenship rights between renters and homeowners.
In mij reactie op het rapport van de Staatscommissie Demografie richt ik mij voornamelijk op de onderdelen die betrekking hebben op het domein wonen. Voordat hiermee wordt aangevangen echter allereerst twee algemene observaties. [...]
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In mij reactie op het rapport van de Staatscommissie Demografie richt ik mij voornamelijk op de onderdelen die betrekking hebben op het domein wonen. Voordat hiermee wordt aangevangen echter allereerst twee algemene observaties. [...]
De woningmarktcrisis in Nederland
Problemen en oplossingen
De huidige woningmarktproblematiek is complex en vraagt om een juiste probleemanalyse, algemene systeemhervormingen die geleidelijk worden doorgevoerd en meer praktische instrumentele oplossingen voor de kortere termijn. Voor een structurele hervorming van het huisvestingsbeleid is een lange adem nodig, waarbij een evenwichtig en consequent doorgevoerd transitietraject van eminent belang is. Voordat aan oplossingen gewerkt kan worden, is het echter allereerst van belang de problemen goed te onderkennen. [...]
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De huidige woningmarktproblematiek is complex en vraagt om een juiste probleemanalyse, algemene systeemhervormingen die geleidelijk worden doorgevoerd en meer praktische instrumentele oplossingen voor de kortere termijn. Voor een structurele hervorming van het huisvestingsbeleid is een lange adem nodig, waarbij een evenwichtig en consequent doorgevoerd transitietraject van eminent belang is. Voordat aan oplossingen gewerkt kan worden, is het echter allereerst van belang de problemen goed te onderkennen. [...]
De woningmarkt is sinds het einde van de economische recessie in 2014 sterk verkrapt en heeft zich de afgelopen jaren ontwikkeld tot een aanbiedersmarkt. Hierbij is er een tekort aan woningen in verschillende categorieën. De vraag is of naast nieuwbouw en een betere inzet van de bestaande woningvoorraad ook transformatie van bestaande gebouwen een oplossing kan bieden om het huidige woningtekort terug te dringen. Dit hoofdstuk staat allereerst stil bij de vraag-aanbodverhoudingen op de woningmarkt. Aansluitend hierop worden marktaspecten van transformatie toegelicht. Tot slot volgt een reflectie op voorwaarden vanuit de markt voor succesvol transformeren van leegstaand vastgoed tot woningen.
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De woningmarkt is sinds het einde van de economische recessie in 2014 sterk verkrapt en heeft zich de afgelopen jaren ontwikkeld tot een aanbiedersmarkt. Hierbij is er een tekort aan woningen in verschillende categorieën. De vraag is of naast nieuwbouw en een betere inzet van de bestaande woningvoorraad ook transformatie van bestaande gebouwen een oplossing kan bieden om het huidige woningtekort terug te dringen. Dit hoofdstuk staat allereerst stil bij de vraag-aanbodverhoudingen op de woningmarkt. Aansluitend hierop worden marktaspecten van transformatie toegelicht. Tot slot volgt een reflectie op voorwaarden vanuit de markt voor succesvol transformeren van leegstaand vastgoed tot woningen.
Een Rijksbouwmeester met een eigen politiek-ideologische agenda, die zijn meningen als feiten blijft debiteren. Nu ook weer in een waarschuwend artikel over dreigende leegstand als we doorgaan met de bouw van eengezinswoningen, terwijl alleenstaande ouderen vooral om appartementen zouden vragen. Peter Boelhouwer, Geurt Keers en Friso de Zeeuw weten wel raad met deze 'eendimensionale demografische en onwetenschappelijke benadering'.
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Een Rijksbouwmeester met een eigen politiek-ideologische agenda, die zijn meningen als feiten blijft debiteren. Nu ook weer in een waarschuwend artikel over dreigende leegstand als we doorgaan met de bouw van eengezinswoningen, terwijl alleenstaande ouderen vooral om appartementen zouden vragen. Peter Boelhouwer, Geurt Keers en Friso de Zeeuw weten wel raad met deze 'eendimensionale demografische en onwetenschappelijke benadering'.