Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

Conference paper (2016)

Authors

A Kosgodagan École des Mines de Nantes, TNO
O. Morales Napoles Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk - CEG
J Maljaars Eindhoven University of Technology
W Courage TNO
Research Group
Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2016 A Kosgodagan, O. Morales Napoles, J Maljaars, W Courage
DOI
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https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315375175-313
More Info
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Published Date

2016

Language

English

Reuse Rights

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Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Hydraulic Engineering

Research Group

Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk

Abstract

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is first introduced that builds up the network in a concise way. In an attempt to represent a network composed of two general classes of orthotropic steel bridges, the classical method of structured expert judgment is carried out as a quantification procedure. The first objective is to indirectly elicit transition probabilities for a Markov chain that probabilistically describes how each type bridge temporally deteriorates. Second, experts are asked to provide estimates on required conditional probabilities related to the Bayesian network. An in-depth analysis of the results is presented so that remarks and observations are subsequently pointed out and, finally conclusions are drawn.