Stagnating development of offshore wind energy in the North Sea
Towards interventions addressing the challenges of offshore wind development in the North Sea
S.A. Fockema Wurfbain (TU Delft - Technology, Policy and Management)
A. Correlje – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Economics of Technology and Innovation)
MW Ludema – Graduation committee member (TU Delft - Transport and Logistics)
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Abstract
Offshore wind energy in the North Sea is central to Europe’s energy transition, yet development is slowing amid rising complexity and systemic strain. This thesis investigates the root causes of this stagnation using a systems thinking approach—combining literature review, stakeholder interviews, a Current Reality Tree (CRT), and a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The analysis identifies three interconnected systemic causes: Fragmented Energy Governance, Historical Policy Dependence, and Uncoordinated Value Chain Expansion. These factors manifest in permitting delays, financial uncertainty, and supply chain vulnerabilities that reinforce a cycle of underinvestment and delayed deployment. Offshore wind development is categorized across the value chain, financial structure, and global supply network to capture the sector’s evolution and current bottlenecks. Current policy efforts remain insufficient and reactive. To overcome stagnation, the study recommends coordinated interventions: harmonized permitting, accelerated infrastructure investment, inflation-proof financing, and domestic supply chain strengthening. These strategies aim to reverse negative feedback loops and re-enable sustainable growth, securing the North Sea’s role in Europe’s renewable energy future.