The mismatch between conventional house price modeling and regulated markets
insights from The Netherlands
Qi Tu (TU Delft - OLD Housing Systems)
J. de Haan (TU Delft - OLD Housing Systems, Statistics Netherlands (CBS))
PJ Boelhouwer (TU Delft - OLD Housing Systems, TU Delft - OLD OTB – Research for the Built Environment)
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Abstract
House price modeling has been frequently used to investigate the dynamics of housing markets, especially competitive markets; yet less attention has been given to markets that have experienced considerable interventions. The aim of this study is to demonstrate a mismatch between conventional house price models and the case of the Netherlands and to provide reasons of such mismatch. We first describe and classify the conventional house price models into asset-pricing house price model, stock-flow model, multi-period utility model, and repayment model. These models are subsequently applied to the Netherlands, where considerable government interventions took place. As expected, the empirical results are unsatisfactory to explain the Dutch house price development. The degree of mismatch of the repayment model and the multi-period utility model, however, seems to be fairly limited.
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