Room energy demand and thermal comfort predictions in early stages of design based on the Machine Learning methods

Abstract

Recent studies have focused on data-driven methods for building energy efficiency, by using simulated or empirical data, for energy-based design assessment rather than the common physics-based techniques, which are mostly time-consuming. In this paper, the feasibility of using seven different Machine Learning models, including three single models and four ensemble ones, is studied to predict annual energy demand and thermal comfort of the model. For this purpose, 3024 synthetic samples of a single zone model with seven input features are simulated through the EnergyPlus engine for training in addition to 360 unseen samples as testing data for accuracy reporting. Heating and cooling demands, in addition to five annual thermal comfort indices, are calculated for each data point and used as target indices. Results show Extremely Randomized Trees and Random Forest models had the highest R2 of 0.99 and 0.85 for cooling and heating demands respectively. Also, the R2 of these models for predicting annual comfort was between 0.71 and 0.95. Results are then used to develop a prediction framework of thermal comfort and energy demand performance in the early stages of building design, where most of the information about building characteristics is not yet known.