Scenario thinking for strategic urban development

Abstract

This research addresses the question: How can strategic scenario thinking be integrated into Rotterdam's urban development process, and what potential does it hold for addressing politically sensitive urban development projects, particularly in the case of Feyenoord City?. The study employs a methodology that combines literature review, case study analysis, stakeholder interviews, and interactive sessions. This combination takes elements from the method of ‘action research’ (Coghlan, 2019), which is chosen for its ability to reflect upon the implementation of new tools within existing organisations and its processes. The interviews with municipal project managers, urban planners, project opposition, and academic experts provide qualitative insights into the challenges faced during the Feyenoord City project. The data is analysed through coding and a cross-reference method to identify gaps for the implementation of scenario thinking within Rotterdam’s municipal strategic urban development process.

By answering the main research question, this research developed a framework for implementing strategic scenarios, which are grounded in the theories from Börjeson et al. (2006) (scenario definitions) and Lindgren & Bandhold (2009) (scenario formulation). The data analysis reveals key gaps where scenario thinking could improve the strategic urban development process. These gaps include the lack of clear scenario definitions and a focus on short-term outcomes over long-term strategic thinking. These gaps highlight the need for clearer frameworks and more inclusive decision-making processes, especially for a politically sensitive project like Feyenoord City.

The case study demonstrated that scenario thinking could enhance adaptability, mitigate risks, and address community opposition and regulatory complexities. The research concludes with a proposal to integrate strategic scenario thinking into Rotterdam’s urban planning process, emphasizing iterative reflection and improving stakeholder collaboration to manage political sensitivities and uncertainties, offering a replicable model for other cities.