Robust Shunting in a Dynamic Environment

Abstract

When trains are not actively traveling on the main rail network, they to be parked and prepared for their next journey. This is a complex problem, involving several interconnected subproblems. Additionally, there is uncertainty in this environment which can render initial plans infeasible during their execution. To ensure trains are able to depart in time, having finished all their required service tasks, a schedule is created in advance.

The focus of this thesis is to address the challenges associated with generating robust initial shunting plans in an uncertain environment. This thesis focuses on a sequential problem formulation, modeled as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and uses a policy optimized for this environment. The goal is to design a method capable of deriving robust initial shunting plans from the policy that are likely to remain feasible for a large number of possible plan executions.

The limitation addressed in this thesis, is that conventional policy-rollout techniques generate action sequences that overlook most alternative outcomes, thereby making the overall plan not feasible for a large number of plan realizations. To address this issue, the thesis proposes two distinct solution methods, aimed to consider every possible state that might be encountered, either directly or indirectly.

Through experimentation on realistically generated problem instances, the research concludes that both proposed methods significantly outperform the baseline approach, demonstrating the possibility of extracting robust initial shunting plans from a given policy that was not explicitly designed for this purpose.