How Hazards Turn Into Disasters

Abstract

Natural hazards like floods, storms, or earthquakes turn into disasters if they hit vulnerable communities and societies. In policy and academia, this understanding has led to a surge of models and risk reduction policies that aim to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience. However, it remains unclear which vulnerabilities are the most important, and what stakeholders in different contexts prioritize. To address this gap, this article identifies critical exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity factors, elicits their priority among emergency responders from different contexts, and analyses their perceived interdependences to understand their cascading potentials. To do that, we conducted a stakeholder survey with experienced disaster and emergency management professionals around the world. The results are used to analyze the perceived relationships between the priority factors via a fuzzy cognitive map. The professionals identified the level of preparedness, exposure to hazard, risk and crisis communication, community engagement, and disaster risk financing as the most important factors. The results show that the most catastrophic disasters are perceived to be caused by a combination of multiple factors and their interdependences. It was also found that practitioners thought that active civil protection agencies and available disaster risk financing have the greatest potential to prevent disasters.