Does science matter for policymaking? Explaining energy model adoption in the European Union

Abstract

Energy modelling frameworks shape what governments perceive as feasible and influence the development of energy systems. However, whether and why modelling frameworks are adopted during policymaking has received little attention. We address this gap by analyzing modelling framework adoption patterns across EU Member States between 2015 and 2023, compiling a dataset based on governmental reporting obligations from EU regulation. Using logistic regression and survival analysis, we test four candidate explanations for whether and how quickly frameworks are adopted: academic visibility, political ideology, institutional capacity, and policy target ambition. First, we find that modelling for science and modelling for policymaking operate as two largely separate worlds. Scientifically published frameworks are rarely adopted for policymaking, and most frameworks in active policy use have no scientific publication record for that country. This suggests that quality assurance processes outside of scientific peer review are important for modelling for policymaking. Second, the four hypotheses we test have limited explanatory power. Specifically, the volume of scientific publications is positively associated with the likelihood of adoption only among frameworks published in the scientific literature and associated negatively with adoption otherwise. Political ideology has a significant but small effect on adoption, while institutional capacity and policy target ambition are not consistent predictors of adoption. Third, both scientific publishing and policy adoption are heavily concentrated around a single framework, TIMES, raising modelling pluralism as a governance question.