Pipelines and Politics

Abstract

This study investigates the design of a hydrogen transport infrastructure connecting North Africa and Europe, with a focus on balancing economic cost-efficiency and system robustness, taking into account potential geopolitical instability. Given the increasing relevance of green hydrogen in the European energy transition, the study addresses the need for a methodologically sound approach to evaluate large-scale infrastructure under geopolitical constraints. A novel combination of network reduction techniques—including Steiner-based pruning and Girvan–Newman clustering—was developed to make extensive pipeline datasets compatible with the Optimal Network Layout Tool (ONLT), enabling the computation of near-optimal pipeline layouts. The model incorporates an improved cost function that distinguishes between new pipeline construction, repurposing, and reinforcement. Using this setup, multiple geopolitical and infrastructural scenarios were simulated to test network performance under stress. Results show that while a tree-based infrastructure provides cost minimization, it introduces structural vulnerability in the face of supply shocks or sabotage. Redundancy through selective reinforcements and routing diversification enhances resilience at a modest cost. The study offers a methodological framework and policy-relevant insights for planning hydrogen infrastructure that is both economically viable and geopolitically robust.