Towards Zero-Emission Energy Autarky: Techno-economic optimisation of multi-carrier energy system for residential neighbourhood in Hilversum

Abstract

The global energy transition poses significant challenges for urban infrastructure as it necessitates robust sustainable energy systems. In the Staatsliedenbuurt Oost neighbourhood of Hilversum, Netherlands, the grid is experiencing congestion due to a convergence of factors: rising electricity consumption from electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps (HPs), and the intermittent nature of local solar generation. This situation complicates the neighborhood's ability to reduce its dependency on fossil fuels. This thesis aims to determine optimal, economically feasible configurations for a multi-carrier energy distribution system for a block in the neighbourhood to meet projected energy demand by 2030, reduce grid dependence, and quantify its CO² emissions reduction potential.
A linear programming (LP) model was developed to minimize the net annual cost (NAC) of the system, optimizing the capacity of solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), air source heat pumps (ASHPs), and seasonal thermal energy storage (STES). The model utilised 15-minute resolution, simulation data and incorporated scenario-based analysis for varying EV and HP adoption rates, including an ambitious "Net Zero" scenario that eliminates grid import. Block 7 was selected for detailed analysis after an initial optimization across 14 neighbourhood blocks.
For Block 7, under a 50% EV and 50% HP adoption scenario, the optimal configuration included 121.467 kW_p Solar PV, 36.801 kW BESS power, 151.602 kWh BESS energy, 55.782 kW_th ASHP, and 526.053 kWh_th STES. This configuration achieved a NAC of €50,792.02, with grid-related costs forming the largest portion. The system demonstrated a degree of autarky (DoA) of 48.06%, with a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of 0.362 €/kWh and a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.120 €/kWh_th. Increasing EV and HP adoption generally led to higher unit costs and increased grid reliance, along with a decrease in DoA. The "Net Zero" scenario achieved 100% DoA but at significantly higher costs (€1.857/kWh LCOE, €0.634/kWhth LCOH) and an extremely high PV curtailment rate (PVCR) of 88.97%. Environmentally, the system showed substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction potential, saving 32,834 Kg CO² equivalent in the base scenario, which rose to 93,516 kg CO² equivalent in the Net Zero scenario.
This research provides a practical framework for mitigating energy challenges in urban environments, contributing to a more resilient, sustainable, and cost-effective local energy ecosystem. It addresses critical research gaps by offering a holistic techno-economic assessment of total residential energy demand within a specific national context, and by exploring the synergistic integration of diverse energy storage technologies and comprehensive sector coupling.