Dynamic Assessment of VCE-Induced Domino Effects
Chao Chen (TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
Genserik Reniers (TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
Ming Yang (TU Delft - Safety and Security Science)
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Abstract
Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) accidents such as the Jaipur explosion in 2005 manifest that VCEs may lead to unpredicted overpressures, resulting in catastrophic domino effects. Many attempts have been made to assess VCEs and the subsequent domino effects in the process and chemical industry, whereas little attention has been paid to the spatial–temporal evolution of VCEs. Thus, this chapter provides a dynamic methodology based on the discrete dynamic event tree to assess the likelihood of VCEs and possible subsequent domino effects. The developed methodology includes six steps: identification and characterization of loss of containment scenarios, analysis of vapor cloud dispersion, identification and characterization of ignition sources, explosion frequency assessment, overpressure calculation, and escalation assessment. Given a release scenario, by applying the developed methodology, we can obtain the probability of VCEs, the likelihood of domino effects, and the damage probabilities of installations exposed to overpressure.