The Pilot Paradox in Practice

Abstract

This thesis investigates how nature-based pilot projects in the Eems-Dollard estuary emerged, evolved, and what challenges they face in scaling up. The estuary struggles with high sediment loads, ecological decline, and climate pressures. To address these issues, pilots such as the Brede Groene Dijk, Dubbele Dijk, Kleirijperij, and Rijpdijk were launched. They test whether sediment can be reused for dike reinforcement and habitat restoration, combining flood safety with ecological and regional benefits. A qualitative case study approach was used, combining literature review, document analysis, field visits, and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. The analysis applied the concept of the “pilot paradox,” which highlights the tension between the conditions that make pilots successful in isolation and those needed for long-term adoption. The findings show that pilots benefit from strong leadership, temporary governance flexibility, and technical creativity. They demonstrate innovative solutions, such as using ripened clay for green dikes or creating multifunctional spaces between dikes. However, they face major barriers: rigid regulations, fragmented land ownership, complex logistics, and short-term funding. Adaptive steps, like the creation of the Rijpdijk sub-pilot, were essential to keep projects moving forward. Overall, the study concludes that pilots are valuable for testing innovations and mobilising coalitions, but they do not automatically scale into permanent policy. Successful upscaling requires deliberate integration into legal frameworks, funding schemes, and long-term governance. The Eems-Dollard case highlights both the promise and fragility of pilots and provides broader lessons for embedding nature-based solutions into climate adaptation strategies.