This thesis investigates how nature-based pilot projects in the Eems-Dollard estuary emerged, evolved, and what challenges they face in scaling up. The estuary struggles with high sediment loads, ecological decline, and climate pressures. To address these issues, pilots such as the Brede Groene Dijk, Dubbele Dijk, Kleirijperij, and Rijpdijk were launched. They test whether sediment can be reused for dike reinforcement and habitat restoration, combining flood safety with ecological and regional benefits. A qualitative case study approach was used, combining literature review, document analysis, field visits, and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders. The analysis applied the concept of the “pilot paradox,” which highlights the tension between the conditions that make pilots successful in isolation and those needed for long-term adoption. The findings show that pilots benefit from strong leadership, temporary governance flexibility, and technical creativity. They demonstrate innovative solutions, such as using ripened clay for green dikes or creating multifunctional spaces between dikes. However, they face major barriers: rigid regulations, fragmented land ownership, complex logistics, and short-term funding. Adaptive steps, like the creation of the Rijpdijk sub-pilot, were essential to keep projects moving forward. Overall, the study concludes that pilots are valuable for testing innovations and mobilising coalitions, but they do not automatically scale into permanent policy. Successful upscaling requires deliberate integration into legal frameworks, funding schemes, and long-term governance. The Eems-Dollard case highlights both the promise and fragility of pilots and provides broader lessons for embedding nature-based solutions into climate adaptation strategies. ... Read more

This report details the development of a Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) for the Tana Basin in Kenya, executed by a multidisciplinary team from the Delft University of Technology. Recognizing the Tana Basin’s vulnerability to flood risks, exacerbated by climatic variability, limited funds, and limited available data, the project proposes a model that combines computationally efficient hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling with robust stakeholder collaboration. The study area comprises the entire Tana Basin, with a specific focus on the flood-prone area near Garissa used for validation. The FEWS developed incorporates local and scientifi-cally derived knowledge to forecast floods, aiming to aid the transition from a technologically intermediate to a technologically advanced FEWS. Through an iterative process of model selection, validation, and stakeholder feedback, the system attempts to integrate the GR4J hydrological model in SuperflexPy and combines this with the Super Fast INundation of CoastS (SFINCS) model. Data sources include global remote sensing datasets like FABDEM & CHIRPS. Furthermore, it uses the water level gauge data provided by the Water Resource Authority of Kenya, as well as TAHMO weather station data.

The report concludes by reflecting on the modelling techniques for both the hydrological and hydrodynamic models and provides recommendations for the further development of a FEWS in the Tana Basin in Kenya. The implementation of the hydrological model was not able to propagate external flows through the network, making it poorly suited for use in the Tana Basin. The hydrodynamic model works decently well in flood conditions but overpredicts flooding during regular flow conditions. Recommendations on stakeholder engagements and data-sharing practices to foster a resilient flood management system in the Tana Basin include more comprehensive Memoranda of Understanding (MoU) and stricter adherence to the Disaster Risk Management Framework of the United Nations.

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