A probabilistic approach for Dynamic Positioning capability and operability predictions

Abstract

Determining Dynamic Positioning capability for an offshore vessel is mandatory to identify the environmental forces the system can counteract, together with the operability in a specific operational area of interest. Conventional predictions evaluate the capability as a maximum sustainable wind speed at a predefined encounter angle for a given wind–wave correlation, not reflecting the effective wind and waves occurrence at the site. In this respect, a step forward is provided by the scatter diagram approach, allowing the evaluation of operability in a specific sea area, using a simplified method to predict wind speed from wave parameters. Here, using known wind–waves joint distributions for the long-term environmental conditions further improves the scatter diagram approach, assessing the operability of a Dynamic Positioning system through a Quasi-Monte Carlo sampling of the joint distribution. Analysing the results of the Quasi-Monte Carlo process, it is possible to obtain a site-specific capability plot, allowing the identification of critical wind speeds in a way that is familiar to operators in the offshore industry. The application of this novel method in the case of quasi-static calculations both to a reference supply vessel and a pipe-lay vessel shows the flexibility of the proposed approach for site-specific Dynamic Positioning capability predictions.