The potential of real-time crowding information in reducing bus bunching under different network saturation levels

Abstract

Bus bunching is a well-known problem in public transport networks. It is characterized by a self-amplifying relationship between uneven distribution of rising passenger loads and deteriorating service regularity. The focus of this study is to analyse whether this negative feedback loop can be addressed by providing real-time crowding information (RTCI) on next vehicle departures at stops. We integrate a departure choice model based on stated-preference analysis of passengers’ willingness to wait with RTCI. A proof-of-concept application to a toy-network model shows that this prevents further progression of bunching effects in certain demand conditions. The RTCI usage reveals substantial benefits - in terms of relative reductions in on-board (over)crowding, headway deviations, as well as mitigated denial-of-boarding risk - in moderately saturated network. These gains may diminish though as high overcrowding eventually emerges in PT network. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that RTCI has the potential to improve travel experience and service utilisation efficiency, even without resorting to supply-side control strategies.